Round 1: Casper, WY

[phw115wvwx]

Day 4 is finished, and the last day of the first week is here.  I made a few tweaks to the contest rules, but nothing will affect the scoring process already in place.  I clarified how trace amounts of precipitation are scored, how missing data is handled, and how the verification process works such as where you're forecasting and what is used.  You're welcome to ask any questions if needed.

It rained for ten minutes on Day 3, but only a trace of precipitation fell.  Thus, it counts as no precipitation according to the rules.

Casper, WY (KCPR) Day 3 Verification

High:  71°F
Low:  40°F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00" (Trace)

[Metarvo]

Casper, WY
Friday, May 10, 2013

High Temperature: 69 °F
Low Temperature: 39 °F
Chance or Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"

[TWCmatthew]

Casper, WY - May 10, 2013

High: 68
Low: 38
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount: 0.00"

[toxictwister00]

Making a revision, looking at some of the models again, I've been getting burned on the precip chances. I think I'll take the risk and go dry for this forecast.

Casper, WY (KCPR)
Friday, May 10, 2013
High: 70°F
Low: 38°F
C.O.P: 0%
Forecasted Precip Amount: 0.00

[TWCCraig]

Friday, May 10, 2013
KCPR Forecast:
High Temperature: 70°F
Low Temperature: 34°F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.00"

*Decided to go slightly warmer with the high temp from previous forecast.

[phw115wvwx]

The first week of forecasting is over.  I hope you all think this idea is going well, and I will gladly take comments or suggestions for improvement during this little break.  You won't have to forecast again until Sunday evening when you will start on Day 6 for Monday, May 13.

Rain was observed again at the airport, but it still only registered a trace of precipitation for Day 4.  Mac and Trevor have been assigned a penalty for missing their forecasts.

Casper, WY (KCPR) Day 4 Verification

High:  70°F
Low:  36°F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00" (Trace)

[Trevor]

Sorry I haven't forecasted for the last few days, I won't be able to finish this round, sadly. I have to focus on studying for exams. It was fun, though.

[phw115wvwx]

Mac and Trevor, thanks for at least trying.  Hope you both can rejoin during the next round.  I also hope there will be more participation once all the school exams finish.  So, I'll simply show the four remaining contestants in future scores for Casper, WY.

You four were lucky as rain was briefly observed again at the airport, but only a trace of precipitation fell.  I hope you realize that this site does get precipitation as it had 4.7" of snow from a storm on April 30 and May 1.  I hope you four feel this contest is going well, and I will take any suggestions to help make it better in future rounds.  The leaderboard halfway through this first round is given in the attachment, which shows Craig with the lead by 11.4 error points.  Next week, the tiebreaker comes into play, so good luck to all four of you!

Casper, WY (KCPR) Day 5 Verification

High:  71°F
Low:  37°F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00" (Trace)

[Metarvo]

It's funny you bring up the precipitation.    The times anybody tried to forecast any, there turned out not to be any measurable amount.  So, it's easy to just get into the mode of never forecasting any, rather than get busted for it on every forecast.

If there's anything I've picked up on from the first week, it's that this is a lot harder than it looks on TV.  I guess you can probably tell by now that I'm not a real forecaster (and I don't even play one on TV). 

[toxictwister00]

That Friday forecast is the best forecast I've had all week. I was only a degree off (high/low) for a perfect prediction. Too bad I got thrown under the bus on the other days though.

[phw115wvwx]

Your Day 6 forecast for Monday, May 13 is due at midnight tonight.  I didn't receive any feedback about the scoring and rules, so I hope all of you are happy and feel that no changes are needed going forward.

[toxictwister00]

Casper, WY (KCPR)
Monday, May 13, 2013
High: 87°F
Low: 50°F
C.O.P: 0%
Precip Amount: 0.00

Just a side-note, if Casper really gets as warm as I'm predicting, they'll be warmer than we've been here so far this year. The weirdness of weather continues...

[Metarvo]

Casper, WY
Monday, May 13, 2013

High Temperature: 85 °F
Low Temperature: 51 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"

[TWCmatthew]

Casper, WY - May 13, 2013

High: 88
Low: 48
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount: 0.00"

[TWCCraig]

Monday, May 12, 2013
KCPR Forecast:
High Temperature: 88°F
Low Temperature: 47°F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount of Precip: 0.00"