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Author Topic: Round 1: Casper, WY  (Read 35979 times)

Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2013, 09:34:28 PM »
Casper, WY
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
HIGH TEMPERATURE: 70°
LOW TEMPERATURE: 37°
POP: 30%
PRECIPITATION: 0.03"

REGION BEGINNING TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA. NAM AND UKMET ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL...KEEPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW WEAK. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE SYSTEM WELL SO WILL RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THESE. THUS...USED ECMWF AND SOME GFS H7/H8 TEMP GUIDANCE AND PRECIP.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2013, 12:20:35 AM by plane852 »
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2013, 01:24:37 AM »
The deadline for Day 2 has passed.  Mac, please don't add your forecasting discussion after the deadline as it'll raise suspicions.  I already saw your numbers before midnight, so I know they're okay.  Day 3 forecasts for Wednesday, May 8 may now commence.

Casper, WY (KCPR) Day 1 Verification

High:  70°F
Low:  29°F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"

I've attached the results from Day 1 and the overall leaderboard as of now.  The tiebreaker column is just your total error points from the second week of this round, which currently stands at zero for everyone.
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Offline Metarvo

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2013, 08:26:19 AM »
Casper, WY
Wednesday, May 8, 2013

High Temperature: 70° F
Low Temperature: 42° F
Chance or Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2013, 09:12:09 PM »
Wednesday, May 8, 2013

High: 64°
Low: 43°
POP: 40%
Amount: 0.09"
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Offline TWCmatthew

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2013, 09:38:06 PM »
Casper, WY - May 8, 2013

High: 66
Low: 38
Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Amount: 0.05"
« Last Edit: May 07, 2013, 09:55:39 PM by TWCmatthew »
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Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2013, 09:43:25 PM »
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
KCPR Forecast:
High Temperature: 68°F
Low Temperature: 38°F
Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Amount of Precip: 0.08"

MAV/MET blend for 2mT. Decreased low temp value for radiational cooling. Used MET/4km NAM/EMCWF for PoP and precip amount.
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2013, 10:38:57 PM »
Deleted my previous post to make some slight revisions.

Casper, WY (KCPR)
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
High: 68°F
Low: 42°F
C.O.P: 40%
Forecasted Precip Amount: 0.07
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2013, 10:44:41 PM »
Casper, WY
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
HIGH TEMPERATURE: 66°
LOW TEMPERATURE: 37°
POP: 50%
PRECIPITATION: 0.08"

I have put my forecast reasoning on as an attachment for tonight's forecast. Craig, you're killing me here.  :lol:
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2013, 02:25:57 AM »
Day 3 forecasting is done, and Day 4 forecasting for Thursday, May 9 is underway.  I hope you are starting to realize how much the models struggle with a desert valley where large temperature swings are common.  Here are the results from Day 2 and the current leaderboard:

Casper, WY (KCPR) Day 2 Verification

High:  69°F
Low:  32°F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"
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Offline Metarvo

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2013, 08:36:49 AM »
Casper, WY
Thursday, May 9, 2013

High Temperature: 66 °F
Low Temperature: 37 °F
Chance or Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2013, 04:41:10 PM »
Have to bow out for the remainder of this round. I have to focus on exams. Best of luck to everyone!
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Offline TWCmatthew

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2013, 06:12:01 PM »
Casper, WY - May 9, 2013

High: 66
Low: 40
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Amount: 0.01"
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Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2013, 06:54:01 PM »
Quote from: plane852 on May 08, 2013, 04:41:10 PM
Have to bow out for the remainder of this round. I have to focus on exams. Best of luck to everyone!
Accepting defeat?  :bleh:  :lol:

JK!
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #28 on: May 08, 2013, 07:34:14 PM »
Casper, WY (KCPR)
Thursday, May 9, 2013
High: 65°F
Low: 40°F
C.O.P: 20%
Forecasted Precip Amount: 0.04
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Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #29 on: May 08, 2013, 10:25:01 PM »
Thursday, May 8, 2013
KCPR Forecast:
High Temperature: 66°F
Low Temperature: 35°F
Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.02"

MAV/MET blend. Decreased low temperature. PoP and amount from 4km NAM. Not much effort put in on this one. Disregarded ECMWF 2mT's, have been far from stellar at this point.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2013, 10:27:17 PM by TWCCraig »
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