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Author Topic: Round 1: Casper, WY  (Read 36106 times)

phw115wvwx

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Round 1: Casper, WY
« on: May 05, 2013, 12:50:40 AM »
Welcome to Round 1 of the TWCT/TWCC Forecasting Contest!  Your first city is Casper, WY.  The NWS daily climate summary for the ASOS at the airport just northwest of this city (METAR ID:  KCPR) will be the official verification.  You may use anything to make your forecasts, but please make it your own effort.  Your Day 1 forecast of the high and low temperatures, the probability of precipitation, and the precipitation amount for Monday, May 6 is due at 12:00:00 AM EDT tonight.  Those who are not in Eastern Time must adjust accordingly.  We will proceed in this topic until all ten forecasting days are completed and a winner is crowned.

If any issues arise with either the forecasts or the verification, please let Andy and I know so that we may fix them.  We will not penalize participants if missing observations occur that cannot be resolved.  Also, we will update the scoring as it progresses, but I will sit out this round to make sure everything runs smoothly.  Please read the rules at this link, because it will be assumed that you understand them completely when you make your first forecast:

https://twctodayforums.com/forums/forecasting/twcttwcc-forecasting-contest-rules-4808/

Good luck, everyone! B)
« Last Edit: May 09, 2013, 12:40:39 AM by phw115wvwx »
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2013, 10:40:50 AM »
Monday, May 6, 2013
High Temperature: 60°
Low Temperature: 38°
POP: 30%
Precip Amount: 0.02"
« Last Edit: May 05, 2013, 03:59:24 PM by Trevor »
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2013, 11:46:30 AM »
Casper, WY
May 6, 2013
High Temperature: 62°F
Low Temperature: 37°F
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Precipitation Amount: 0.01
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Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2013, 01:37:08 PM »
Monday, May 6th, 2013
KCPR Forecast
High Temperature: 67°F
Low Temperature: 36°F
Chance of Precip: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"

Used MAV/MET blend for 2mT and PoP. Used 4km HiRES NAM for PoP, 2mT, and Precip Amount

EDIT: HAVE DECIDED TO STAY WITH FORECAST.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2013, 10:27:57 PM by TWCCraig »
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2013, 02:56:15 PM »
Trevor, I hope you meant May 6 on your forecast and that it's just a typo.  I don't want you forecasting the wrong day. :P

Craig, you can always delete your post and make a new one before midnight if you want to change anything.  I'm not going to put any forecasts into the spreadsheet until it's past the deadline. :yes:
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Offline Metarvo

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2013, 03:00:40 PM »
Casper, WY
May 6, 2013

High Temperature: 59 °F
Low Temperature: 36 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2013, 04:00:07 PM »
Quote from: phw115wvwx on May 05, 2013, 02:56:15 PM
Trevor, I hope you meant May 6 on your forecast and that it's just a typo.  I don't want you forecasting the wrong day. :P

Wow..haha. Yes I forecasted the right day, just looked at my computer's calendar and saw "5" and typed it. :P
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Offline TWCmatthew

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2013, 04:36:53 PM »
Casper, WY - May 6, 2013

High Temperature: 64
Low Temperature: 38
Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Precipitation Amount: 0.01
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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2013, 04:52:51 PM »
Forecast is subject to change with 00Z runs and radar/satellite analysis.

Casper, WY
Monday, May 6, 2013
HIGH TEMPERATURE: 70°
LOW TEMPERATURE: 39°
POP: 30%
PRECIPITATION: 0.02"

USED ECMWF 850/700 MB TEMPS. BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS AND PRECIP TOTALS.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2013, 11:19:54 PM by plane852 »
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phw115wvwx

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2013, 12:38:58 AM »
The deadline for Day 1 has passed.  You may enter your Day 2 forecast for Tuesday, May 7 here. :yes:
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Offline Metarvo

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2013, 08:46:40 AM »
Casper, WY
Tuesday, May 7, 2013

High Temperature: 62° F
Low Temperature: 39° F
Chance or Precipitation: 20%
Precipitation Amount: 0.06"
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2013, 10:35:41 AM »
Casper, WY
Tuesday, May 7, 2013

High: 68°F
Low: 43°F
C.O.P: 30%
Accumulated Precip: 0.18

I used the model output statistics (MOS) along with the ECMWF/UKMET for this forecast.
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Offline TWCmatthew

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2013, 06:34:28 PM »
Tuesday, May 7, 2013 - Casper, WY

High: 68
Low: 37
Chance of Precipitation: 30%
Amount: 0.07"
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Offline Trevor

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2013, 06:43:34 PM »
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
High Temperature: 55°
Low Temperature: 39°
POP: 40%
Precip Amount: 0.1"
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Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2013, 09:22:11 PM »
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
KCPR Forecast:
High Temperature: 69°F
Low Temperature: 37°F
Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Precipitation Amount: 0.02"

Have used MAV/MET blend for 2mT with a slightly decreased low temp value for radiational cooling.  Disregarded ECMWF 2mT as have been too cool. Blend of MET/4km NAM/ECMWF for precip amount and PoP.
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