Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread

[TWCCraig]

Lol, NAM is amped and dumps about a foot. Also, its 2m temps are insane for Sat AM. These will be the coldest temps since January 1994. Last below 0 day in NYC was Jan '94. Out here it's Jan '87.

http://imageshack.us/a/img827/7997/uh.gif

[toxictwister00]

I might be lucky enough to see some wraparound snow from this storm late tomorrow afternoon/evening. It seems like it will be similar to the Thanksgiving Eve snow I saw a couple of months ago last year.

Is everyone ready for the hammer to drop on our heads come next week?

[WeatherWitness]

Is everyone ready for the hammer to drop on our heads come next week?

Ugh - no!  I thought Dallas was going to be missing out on the colder weather, but it looks like that's a no.  It's a whapping 68 degrees here right now but will be some 30-degrees colder on Monday, according to current NWS forecasts.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Winter Storm Warnings for MA and Blizzard Warning for Long Island

[toxictwister00]

Is everyone ready for the hammer to drop on our heads come next week?

Ugh - no!  I thought Dallas was going to be missing out on the colder weather, but it looks like that's a no.  It's a whapping 68 degrees here right now but will be some 30-degrees colder on Monday, according to current NWS forecasts.

Whapping I like that, you just gave me a new favorite word.

I'm ready for the cold, I got my beanie hat, leather jacket, long johns, scarf, gloves, gloves, and my new boots I got for Christmas all prepped for this. It's been years since it's been as cold as it looks like it will be next week.

This looks to rival the January 2003 Arctic Outbreak as it stands now, I'm not sure if it will rival the February 1996 or January 1994 Arctic Outbreaks yet...

[toxictwister00]

0z GFS tonight: "Yea, um remember how my buddy the ECMWF kept saying extreme cold was coming? Turns out he was totally right and I 1000% agree with him."

I'm pretty sure this is the coldest GFS run so far this week, parts of Florida will likely see a freeze, possibly a hard freeze. (Tallahassee, Pensacola, Jacksonville, Tampa, Sarasota, etc.)

I wonder how many NWS offices across the ECONUS will issue Wind Chill Advisories? I haven't seen one here in 11 years.

The ICEBOX is near, ice cubes and all! 

[phw115wvwx]

Since some of you are looking at 850 mb temperatures and wondering how cold it will get compared to previous years, I have used a website that I learned within the NWS, which the Rapid City, SD office kindly shares to the public.  There is actually a climatological database of precipitable water (how much moisture can be condensed from the atmosphere directly above you) and the 850 mb temperature for every NWS site that launches a weather balloon every 12 hours.  Just click a site on the map, and you will see the graphs for those two variables with percentiles and extremes depicted.  You can even find out where the latest sounding at that site lands on the graph in real time by using the "Click for Real-Time Data" link.  Enjoy! 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw

[toxictwister00]

This is kinda a rant, but only because I just don't get the logic of weather media in general sometimes.

I'm hoping I didn't hear this right, but maybe if someone else happened to be watching at the time can confirm. I could have sworn I just heard Dr. Postel saying that during the arctic blast, Atlanta would struggle to reach 40. Is he serious? He honestly thinks it's not gonna be colder than that?

It's really no wonder we, as Southerners are so ill-prepared for snow, ice, and cold snaps on the occasion when they happen. The forecasts are always either contradicting or extremely conservative, sometimes even 24 hrs before the main event occurs! I can understand being skeptical about the arctic blast earlier in the week when it was just mainly the EURO honking the horn on it, but now that we have solid model agreement this arctic outbreak is gonna happen, I mean the GFS/ECMWF has been showing 20s for highs and single digits for lows most of the week now for where I live. It's really time to stop sugar coding and actually hype this already.

Now I know I could just ignore TWC and just listen to what the local mets say and to be fair, they were playing coy about this too up until today. You can tell there's more of an urgency to inform the public about not just the possibly record low temps, but the possibly dangerous wind chills which is going to be the main show anyway. In response to that, the public is actually preparing by insulating exposed pipes, plants, bringing pets inside, and even having their homes re-insulated and buying generators/heaters. I guess my point is I don't get why TWC is hyping the cold on the LF, but on air they're doing a complete 180 by backpedaling on just how severe the cold will be in the South. It's only causing confusion when they choose to have it both ways imo.

[phw115wvwx]

In case someone notices later, I just split Craig's topic into two topics here as I feel fall/winter weather and spring/summer weather ought to be kept separate.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Massachusetts Arctic Freeze 2014: 1/4/14

[toxictwister00]

If you live anywhere from AR over to NC, you need to start prepping for what will be another major winter storm to strike the Southern CONUS with snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Winter Storm Watches are already flying up for parts of the South for the first round, yes there are two separate rounds.

For my area, the first round is from Monday night into Tuesday night. 1-2 inches of snow is expected.
The second round could possibly be more ominous as model guidance suggests an icy mix setup. This will be from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Models such as the Canadian and the European models suggest significant ice will accumulate here. Even the 6z GFS model suggests a long duration icing event. YIKES!

We haven't had a significant icestorm in the Atlanta metro area since January 28-29, 2005! So, unfortunately, we are WELL overdue for another.

[WeatherWitness]

This makes me sad.   I was enjoying the warmer temperatures.

[toxictwister00]

This makes me sad.   I was enjoying the warmer temperatures.

You drank too much of that Spring Fever flavored Kool Aid didn't you? It's still February, you didn't honestly think Spring was here for good already did you?

Speaking of Spring Fever, were gonna be awfully close to a record high tomorrow, but I think we'll fall short of tying or breaking it. The record is 78 set back in 1986.

[WeatherWitness]

This makes me sad.   I was enjoying the warmer temperatures.

You drank too much of that Spring Fever flavored Kool Aid didn't you? It's still February, you didn't honestly think Spring was here for good already did you?

Speaking of Spring Fever, were gonna be awfully close to a record high tomorrow, but I think we'll fall short of tying or breaking it. The record is 78 set back in 1986.

No, but I certainly wouldn't mind returning back to near normal as opposed to falling 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Plus, March isn't that far away anymore...

[toxictwister00]

If it makes you feel any better I wouldn't trust those CPC maps anymore than I can throw them. They change just as frequently as any typical computer model run will.

Here's an interesting article from Accuweather talking about the return of arctic blasts by next week. What jumped out at me was the mentioning of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, I wasn't aware there was one earlier this month. They think the brunt of the arctic air will be aimed towards the Midwest/Southeast/Northeast regions.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/frigid-air-to-clutch-midwest-east/23498242

EDIT: Also I like to wait until April before I feel ok to enjoy warm weather like this today because March is known for being a transitional and violate month. There have been March's in the past that were notorious for snow/ice here just as well as DJF are. (ex: 1960, 1980, 1983, 1993, 2009, 2010) those are just the years I know off the top of my head, there's probably more.