Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread

[toxictwister00]

Although it could change, that COLD (and somewhat wetter) trend continues on the GFS for Thanksgiving and beyond. On the 18z GFS, there's a 1052mb High pressure sliding into the Central Plains sending the eastern 2/3rds of the nation right into the deep freezer to start off December.

Haven't seen the ECMWF or Canadian, but from what I've heard it's in agreement on a colder weather pattern so far.

[WeatherWitness]

Winter is here.

[toxictwister00]

I'll trade for your Sunday forecast. I've never had snow on my birthday before, it would be a nice treat!

[Metarvo]

I'm loving every minute of it.  The only thing I don't like are the potentially icy roads.  The cold and even the chances for snow don't bother me at all.

[TWCCraig]

Places to the S&W of me are picking up a good amount of snow. Places around Philly are nearing 10" of snow! Good for them. They usually get rain when we get big snow storms. Only looking at around 1" tonight before we go to all rain. That ocean...

[toxictwister00]

Places to the S&W of me are picking up a good amount of snow. Places around Philly are nearing 10" of snow! Good for them. They usually get rain when we get big snow storms. Only looking at around 1" tonight before we go to all rain. That ocean...

Isn't it supposed to change over to rain there also?

[TWCCraig]

Places to the S&W of me are picking up a good amount of snow. Places around Philly are nearing 10" of snow! Good for them. They usually get rain when we get big snow storms. Only looking at around 1" tonight before we go to all rain. That ocean...

Isn't it supposed to change over to rain there also?

In some parts yes. Places more west further away from the coastal low and WAA may stay as sleet and freezing rain. I just measured 0.9" and it looks to be done for now. Some freezing rain then rain later.

But now that many places in SE PA and S NJ picked up a decent amount, that may help keep the cold low level air in place more than the models depicted.

[TWCCraig]

MAJOR EAST COAST STORM POSSIBLE THIS THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Models are beginning to come together on a solution which would could dump 6-12" along the northeastern I-95 corridor. The ECMWF has a solid snow threat from PHL to BOS, BOS potentially seeing 12-18". 8-12" around NYC, less south. The NAVGEM was the first model to seek out a PNA spike, helping to lead in rise in heights over the SE, causing the trough go negatively titled and amplify. The Euro picked up on it last night, bombing out a 979mb low just south of Montauk, NY. Down to 961mb in the Gulf of Maine. The latest 12z run of the GFS has picked up on this now, with a decent enough Davis Strait block. The GFS appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues. Causes the low to be further east than depicted, also taken into consideration the GFS' SE bias and its struggle with east coast cyclogenesis. Eliminate the bias and convective feedback issue, this could be an 12-18" event (MECS, Major East Coast Storm) for the NYC area. Behind the system, area of pronounced -15c - -20c 850mb temperatures. High pressure to the west will allow northerly winds to spill down from the Hudson Valley (which is the best way for NYC to see cold temps). GFS raw numbers have NYC reaching a low -2.2°F Saturday morning. Could be slightly overdone, maybe a low between 5 and 0 degrees more likely. These temps will be more attainable with a decent snowpack. More updates to follow.

[toxictwister00]

I'm a lot more interested in what happens after this storm as far as seeing whether or not the hammer of COLD the Euro slams down on our heads a week from now is just smoke and mirrors like in the past or if it's the real deal. Even has Atlanta seeing sub-zero degree temps. Atlanta's all time record low is -9 set back in 1899. Georgia's all time record low is -17 set back in 1940.

My confidence level is a 2/10 right now this arctic outbreak will happen.

[TWCCraig]

Euro got even better. Drops 1.26" of precip (all frozen) from this upcoming storm with temps very cold, heavy snow with temps in low teens. Ratios between 12:1 to 15:1 would argue 12-18" of snow. Likely over done again. What's even more unbelievable, the Euro has 2m temps, get this, on western LI, down to -18°F. I'm shocked that a model, especially the Euro is showing temps that cold. Even if that's well over done (has to be), that's still temps near 0, which is record breaking.

[TWCCraig]

Take a look at this. Nearly -40C 850's coming down from Canada next week. This is Jan 1994 type cold.

[gt1racerlHDl]

Euro is being very aggressive

[WeatherWitness]

Euro has been aggressive on the winter storms so far this season (at one point the model was forecasting a few feet of snow for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas).  I wouldn't rely on it heavily in predicting snowfall totals for this upcoming storm.

[TWCToday]

Euro is being very aggressive

Backed off for the 0z

[TWCCraig]

Still looking at a 4-8" storm here with near record cold behind it. WSW up for local area.