Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread

[TWCCraig]

OMG, so close to an all out blizzard! 

[gt1racerlHDl]

First upper 30s for Southern New England next Week!

OMG, so close to an all out blizzard! 

I would have to keep an eye on this throughout this week because that storm may bring a mix-bag to my area this time next week.

[TWCCraig]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013110712/ma/ecmwf_t2m_snow_ma_32.png

[toxictwister00]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013110712/ma/ecmwf_t2m_snow_ma_32.png

What the heck? Snow for me too?  That can't be right!

That would be a nice early birthday present if it did happen though.

[toxictwister00]

It looks like the 18z GFS just took a tiny step backwards towards the EURO on the snow for parts of GA/SC/NC. Yesterday, I humorously laughed this off because I expected whatever glitch, hiccup, or mishap to be gone on the ECMWF by now, but it's still there showing at least a few flakes down my way.

This ain't fantasy or voodoo land were talking about, this is only 4 days from tonight. I feel like I probably shouldn't keep brushing it off even if I still don't believe it, but I desperately want to.

Interesting fact from another member at another forum, he says it's been about 135 years since Atlanta has had measurable snow in the month of November, so if the Euro is right (as it stands now) this will go from being very unusual to very historical.

All hail King Euro if it ends up being right about next week.


Sidenote: I'm so glad TWC does analysis of the GFS/ECMWF when there are future storms showing up on the horizon. I wish they had of done that more often like a decade ago. Would have made this weathergeek happy to see them discuss them.

[toxictwister00]

Our NWS office has added a mix of rain/snow for parts of N. GA (north of ATL) from about Rome northward. They said it's not out of the question they'll extend that southward towards us as well.

Given what the 12z GFS is showing this morning, they might feel more confident in doing so.

Snippet of their morning forecast discussion...

WHILE THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE A GIVEN AT THIS
POINT...THE TRICKY PART WILL BE HOW MUCH ATTENDANT MOISTURE EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIST WHEN THE STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH MORE EXPANSIVE MOISTURE
THAN THE GFS...WHILE THE GFS HAS BETTER MOISTURE IN FAR NORTHEAST
GA WHERE TEMPS ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH ANY
WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL. STRONG CAA QUICKLY BRINGS -2 TO -4 850MB
TEMPS TO NORTH GA BY 06Z WED WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK RAIN SHOWER TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION AS THE PROGGED
SATURATED COLUMNS BELOW 600-700MB SHIFT TO MAINLY ALL BELOW 0-C.
THE GFS IS QUICKER TO DRY OUT THE COLUMN THAN THE ECMWF SO THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND TO
PRECIPITATE AS THE DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION BATTLES AGAINST IT.
SURFACE TEMPS AT THE MOMENT LOOK TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR MOST
AREAS IN NORTH GA FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO RESULT IN
ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AND LOW TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD WED MORNING. ALL CONSIDERED...HAVE INTRODUCED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER MIX TO MUCH OF THE NORTH NEAR A ROME...TO
CANTON...TO WARRENTON LINE...STAYING MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FURTHER
SOUTH AT THIS MOMENT. KEEPING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.

[WeatherWitness]

I guess the EURO model a few days ago had 10+ inches of snow for Oklahoma next week.   In fact, the following meme was made:



It looks like we're not going to get much precipitation out of this system at all, but temperatures will take a significant nose dive, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.   Not ready for winter yet.

[TWCCraig]

Euro was a flop with this entire storm. We might see some snow along an arctic front moving in Monday night which is abnormal, it's rare to get snow along a cold front here. The warm air out ahead of the front ruins our chances all the time.

[toxictwister00]

NWS updated my forecast to 30% chance of rain/snow Tues. night into Wednesday!

One of our local news stations mentioned a 30% chance of rain changing to snow during the same timeframe. TWC is not biting which is very ironic because last night (and this morning) they wouldn't shut up about how we could see some snow showers.

Hopefully I'll get to see a few flakes to start off the Winter season which technically hasn't even started yet. 

[phw115wvwx]

If you all looked closely at Craig's first post of the European model snowfall several days ago, it showed over three feet of snow for my area on Tuesday, while the GFS only had an inch or two.  Now, the European model barely shows anything in my area for Tuesday, and I feel that I'll be lucky to see a trace.  The GFS definitely won this battle.  The European model struggled a lot last winter after Sandy, so I'm wondering if the GFS could outperform it again this winter.

I will share these thoughts from my experiences with the models:  They all struggle with cold air surges and arctic outbreaks, and the snowfall amounts they produce are not reliable at all.  Cold air damming is never handled well in the East.  Precipitation amount is the worst variable possible for the models to predict, so you really need to consider mesoscale conditions when determining snowfall amounts.  For some reason, the models are better with warm surges and heat waves, so keep that point in mind for the future.

[TWCCraig]

My local NWS office has about a half inch of snow tonight

[toxictwister00]

No Snow Showers Forecast Here From the Computer Models Anymore = FAIL!

Ah well, it was fun to see while it lasted. At least we might still have a chance at jeopardizing a couple of record lows.

[WeatherWitness]

Can someone say fffffffffrrrrrrreeeeeezzzzzzzzzzeeee?

[TWCCraig]

Long Island is under a freeze warning tonight. Other than NYC, we are the only place in the area that has yet to have a good freeze, with the exception of the pine barrens of LI which see epic radiational cooling temps. Tonight we'll have our first freeze but even with a wind off the water, temps will only drop to the upper 20's to around 30.

[TWCCraig]

GFS is down right cold for our area late next weekend beginning of next week. Thickness values drop to near 500 and 850mb temps drop to near -20°C. Extremely rare and unprecedented for only November.