Are you TheWeatherChannelman on YT? He posts videos of the Montauk Intellistar2. If so, you have a good collection of clips!Yes I am, thanks, but I don't post videos of the Montauk Intellistar II. I think you mean the Islip Intellistar II.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SFC LOW ACROSS
NJ AND TO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND NAM REMAINS ONE
OF THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE SFC LOW INITIALLY. EAST
WINDS INCREASE...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY WIND
RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. MY BEST GUESS IS FOR A FEW REPORTS
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY CSTL CT. HOWEVER...H8 JET STRENGTH NOT QUITE WHAT I WOULD
WANT IT TO BE FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS VERIFYING HERE...AND
THAT IS ACCORDING TO STRONGER NAM. GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE A MUCH
WEAKER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST.
LATEST 6Z NAM DOES FORECAST A 75 KT H8 JET OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THESE EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
POSSIBLE HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM/SUB-TROPICAL STORM INTO LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. The GFS has been showing the development of a tropical system in the Western Caribbean. From it's development, it moves north possible effecting South-eastern Florida, then moving tangent to the east coast, until it retrogrades around Cape Hatteras due to a blocking high to the north, if the blocking high to north moves more east, it will then allow the storm to continue it's move up the east coast, possible effecting the entire east coast. There is still a good chance that this could also blow out to sea, and not effect land at all (except in the Caribbean). If it does effect the east coast, its strength is uncertain; water temperatures off the southeast coast should be around 80 by late May/early June (higher water temps possible with the Gulf Stream); and water temps along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast should be in the 60's, 50's near Maine. Water temps in the 60's could make this a sub-tropical/extra-tropical event, but still powerful. As the storm retrogrades, it could gain intensity, if it then gains momentum from a strong jet, it could move fast enough where it would not loose much intensity and could effect the Mid-Atlantic and New England as a strong topical storm or hurricane. If that scenario doesn't happen, the storm could move out to sea, or effect us as a sub-tropical storm. Again, this way far out to tell what might happen. We'll have to wait and see. :hmm:Hi GTAIVman. Do you mind telling me where those models are from? Thanks! :wave:
Here's a look at the storm from the GFS 12z model run @ (May 29th, 12z):
Sure. They are from IPS Meteostar.POSSIBLE HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM/SUB-TROPICAL STORM INTO LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. The GFS has been showing the development of a tropical system in the Western Caribbean. From it's development, it moves north possible effecting South-eastern Florida, then moving tangent to the east coast, until it retrogrades around Cape Hatteras due to a blocking high to the north, if the blocking high to north moves more east, it will then allow the storm to continue it's move up the east coast, possible effecting the entire east coast. There is still a good chance that this could also blow out to sea, and not effect land at all (except in the Caribbean). If it does effect the east coast, its strength is uncertain; water temperatures off the southeast coast should be around 80 by late May/early June (higher water temps possible with the Gulf Stream); and water temps along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast should be in the 60's, 50's near Maine. Water temps in the 60's could make this a sub-tropical/extra-tropical event, but still powerful. As the storm retrogrades, it could gain intensity, if it then gains momentum from a strong jet, it could move fast enough where it would not loose much intensity and could effect the Mid-Atlantic and New England as a strong topical storm or hurricane. If that scenario doesn't happen, the storm could move out to sea, or effect us as a sub-tropical storm. Again, this way far out to tell what might happen. We'll have to wait and see. :hmm:Hi GTAIVman. Do you mind telling me where those models are from? Thanks! :wave:
Here's a look at the storm from the GFS 12z model run @ (May 29th, 12z):
Relative Wind Storm Severity Scale (RWSSS)
Cat 6. - Sustained Winds of 50mph+ or gusts to hurricane force or exceeding
Cat 5. - Sustained Winds of 50mph+ or gusts to 70mph or higher
Cat 4. - Sustained Winds of 40mph+ or gusts to 60mph or higher
Cat 3. - Sustained Winds of 35mph+ or gusts to 55mph or higher
Cat 2. - Sustained Winds of 30mph+ or gusts to 50mph or higher
Cat 1. - Sustained Winds of 25mph+ or gusts to 45mph or higher
Notable Recent Wind Storms:
Cat 6. - March 13,2010 gusts of 75mph reported
Cat 5. - December 26-27,2010 gusts of 70mph reported
Cat 4. - December 7-8,2011 gusts of 69mph were reported
Cat 4. - December 27,2011 gusts of 63mph were reported
Cat 4. - April 22-23,2012 sustained winds of 46mph(KLGA) and gusts of 58mph were reported
Cat 3. - October 28-29,2011 gusts of 55mph were reported
Cat 3. - February 25,2012 sustained winds of 39mph and gusts of 59mph were reported
The RWSSS is meant for use in determining the severity of non-tropical low pressure systems
and is not associated with severe weather, ex. Tornadoes, Straight Line Wind etc.
When determining the serverity, use only official observed weather data from within a 50 mile radius to your location; meaning
that if there is wind gust higher in another place that's greater than 50 miles from your location, that weather data would
be invalid for use in determining the serverity of the wind storm. Areas with frequently high wind (Ex. Mt. Washington), would
not count because those areas normally recieve high winds.
There's a 20% chance of tropical development on that low pressure just off the coast from the Carolinas. I don't think it will develop.
There's a 20% chance of tropical development on that low pressure just off the coast from the Carolinas. I don't think it will develop.
([url]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0112W5_NL_sm2+gif/203609W5_NL_sm.gif[/url])
Nonononono....sorry if you took that the wrong way. I was just showing you in case you hadn't seen. I wasn't trying to be rude at all.Oh ok. Sorry!! :thumbsup:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
251 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
NYZ078-080-177>179-031945-
NASSAU-QUEENS-SUFFOLK-
251 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
.NOW...
DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GLEN COVE TO BELLEROSE TO
14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE LOCALLY.
$$
PW
... STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES...
AT 537 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BROOKVILLE... OR NEAR SYOSSET... AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL BE... NEAR FARMINGDALE BY 550 PM. NEAR MELVILLE BY 555 PM. NEAR DIX HILLS BY 600 PM. NEAR DEER PARK BY 605 PM. NEAR BAY SHORE BY 610 PM. NEAR ISLIP BY 615 PM.
SMALL HAIL... AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC059-103-032245-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0006.120603T2154Z-120603T2245Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
554 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 645 PM EDT...
* AT 552 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MELVILLE...OR NEAR PLAINVIEW...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DIX
HILLS...LINDENHURST...DEER PARK...COMMACK...BABYLON...BRENTWOOD...
BAY SHORE...HAUPPAUGE...ISLIP...CAPTREE STATE PARK...RONKONKOMA...
HOLBROOK...SAYVILLE...PATCHOGUE AND DAVIS PARK
LAT...LON 4064 7331 4067 7327 4064 7321 4066 7321
4067 7305 4074 7289 4075 7289 4073 7295
4074 7302 4072 7304 4071 7309 4072 7312
4069 7315 4070 7324 4066 7336 4071 7354
4089 7346 4078 7286 4072 7289 4062 7321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 286DEG 23KT 4078 7342
$$
JMC
000
AWUS81 KOKX 180829
RWSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-182200-
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NY...NORTHEASTERN NJ AND SOUTHERN CT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2012
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING
MID WEEK. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF TO YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RETURN
TONIGHT.
AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES...TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MORE SPRINGLIKE THAN SUMMERLIKE...AND ONLY
SLIGHT MODERATION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH FINALLY
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE FLOW WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST...BRINGING NEAR RECORD WARMTH BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
$$
GOODMAN
...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...[/font]
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY FROM ERN VA TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 65-70 F. RECENT
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SE NY ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDDAY AS
THIS AREA IS BRUSHED BY A SUBTLE EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATING EWD
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE
NEAR 1500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS /AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/
WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON.
ACUS11 KWNS 011926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011925
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-012100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...
VALID 011925Z - 012100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT PERSISTS AND IS
DEVELOPING N/EWD OF WW 444 IN MA/RI. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR
SPATIALLY TO WARRANT A NEW WW...IT COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED.
DISCUSSION...GREATEST CLUSTERING OF TSTMS HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE HAVE
EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTER AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S IN MOST OF MA OUTSIDE OF CAPE COD SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN SEVERE AS IT SHIFTS JUST N/E OF WW 444. FARTHER SW...TSTMS
HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE S OF NERN PA THUS FAR ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH. BUT WITH THE CU FIELD PERSISTING...CONTINUED HEATING WITH
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS
BY EARLY EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 07/01/2012
WIND GUSTS
---------------
ISLIP NY 90 MPH
2 N TOMPKINSVILLE NJ 90 MPH
SURF CITY NJ 89 MPH
TUCKERTON NJ 88 MPH
1 N MONTCLAIR NJ 88 MPH
MADISON CT 85 MPH
PLUM ISLAND NY 84 MPH
CUTTYHUNK MA 83 MPH
DENNISVILLE 81 MPH
SANDY HOOK NJ 81 MPH
WELLFLEET MA 81 MPH
JFK NY 79 MPH
NEWARK NJ 78 MPH
ATLANTIC CITY NJ 77 MPH
GROTON CT 76 MPH
HARVEY CEDARS NJ 75 MPH