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Author Topic: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014  (Read 4843 times)

Offline toxictwister00

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Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« on: January 04, 2014, 09:56:50 AM »
I hope it's ok to start a separate thread for this. I felt it should have a separate thread given the magnitude and extremity of this cold weather.

As this event unfolds, you can post info here on what's happening where you are. For my area, tomorrow into Monday morning looks to be messy as the Arctic front pulls in, there will be developing precip in front, along, and behind the front which will mean a rain changing to snow or a rain changing to mix to snow scenario. The biggest concern where I am is over a FLASH FREEZE. Sunday afternoon will reach a high around 50, but as the front passes, temps are expected to drop 30 or more degrees within a 2-3 hour time period which means whatever precip is still sitting on roads and bridges will freeze immediately and just in time for Monday's morning rush hour.

Here's a snippet of the morning disco from my NWS office for tomorrow and Monday.

MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A VERY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH MOST
OF THE IMPACT BEING DONE WITH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITHIN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL BE A VERY INTERESTING 12 HOUR PERIOD THOUGH AS COLD
AIR RUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE...CHANGING PRECIP TO A MIXTURE
INITIALLY BUT VERY QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF A ROME
TO CLEVELAND LINE. STILL A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS
LOCATION WITH TOP DOWN METHOD EVEN INDICATING A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIP ENDS FROM LAGRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA.
AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH AS I AM WORRIED HOW RAPIDLY PRECIP PULLS
OUT. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS AND WPC
GUIDANCE BUT AM LEANING ON THE LOW END AT THIS POINT GIVEN LIMITED
WRAP AROUND INITIALLY. BIGGER ISSUE FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP RELATIVE TO PRECIP ENDING WHICH COULD
CREATE A BLACK ICE SITUATION AT THE WORST TIME...NAMELY MORNING
RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC. WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL LIKELY ISSUE EVEN BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...MAYBE
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2014, 10:02:39 AM »
This will definitely be a notable arctic outbreak in the midwest. Not so much here. Looks to moderate by the time it gets here. This really reminds me of the '94 cold outbreak.
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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2014, 10:39:07 AM »
Tavores, your topic is good to put into this relatively unused Winter Weather subforum, so I moved it here.  The low on Monday night for my location is threatening to go below 0F, which has not been seen since January 17, 2009 when it was -4F.  Some of the higher elevations in the WV mountains will drop below -10F.  I would hate to be in North Dakota and Minnesota right now as their highs on Sunday are in the -20F to -30F range!  Wind chills will be dangerously low as they approach -60F during Saturday and Sunday nights, which is cold enough to have exposed skin begin to freeze in 30 seconds.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2014, 10:50:17 AM »
Tavores, your topic is good to put into this relatively unused Winter Weather subforum, so I moved it here.  The low on Monday night for my location is threatening to go below 0F, which has not been seen since January 17, 2009 when it was -4F.  Some of the higher elevations in the WV mountains will drop below -10F.  I would hate to be in North Dakota and Minnesota right now as their highs on Sunday are in the -20F to -30F range!  Wind chills will be dangerously low as they approach -60F during Saturday and Sunday nights, which is cold enough to have exposed skin begin to freeze in 30 seconds.

Our low is forecast to be in the mid to upper single digits (5-7 degrees) which will destroy the record low of 10 set back in 1970. I saw yesterday on other forums where wind chill values would be around -18F from the GFS. This is gonna be a wild weekend/next week coming up I can't wait to see how it all unfolds! :thrilled:

Offline TWCmatthew

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2014, 11:34:16 AM »
Temperatures could fall to near -20 on Monday Night, and not even get out of the negative single digits on Tuesday. Wind chills are also forecasted to be around -40 in my area!

Offline Charismatic Applesauce

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2014, 01:11:05 PM »
I do not want to be out on Monday at all. The high that day is just -9, and the low Sunday night and Monday night is predicted between -10 and -15. Wind chills will reach -50!
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2014, 01:21:25 PM »
I feel for the folks in Minnesota who are the ones that will hurt most from this. Those poor brave souls are probably building up igloos to stay warm. :lol:

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2014, 03:49:38 PM »
Active Weather Bulletins across the United States Pertaining to the Extreme Cold or Wintry Weather. Nothing short of amazing if you ask me.



Offline gt1racerlHDl

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2014, 05:27:10 PM »
New England had ours today  :o

This morning to now

New Bedford -7/29 36 difference
Fall River -6/28 = 34 difference
Wareham -6/30 = 36 difference
Plymouth -7/28 = 35 difference
Brockton -9/26 = 35 difference
Taunton -12/31 = 43 difference
Norwood -15/25 = 40 difference
Swansea -10/29 = 39 difference

Compared to forecasted highs for Monday

New Bedford -7/53 = 60 difference
Fall River -6/52 = 58 difference
Wareham -6/50 = 56 difference
Plymouth -7/53 = 60 difference
Brockton -9/51 = 60 difference
Taunton -12/50 = 62 difference
Norwood -15/52 = 67 difference
Swansea -10/52 = 62 difference

Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2014, 06:08:01 PM »
Very frustrating how any precipitation wants to completely skip over Texas (excluding the panhandle). :angry:  We didn't receive anything from the last storm and won't from this one.  At this rate, the drought in the state is only going to worsen if no precipitation falls, which will lead to a nasty 2014.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2014, 07:15:50 PM »
Very frustrating how any precipitation wants to completely skip over Texas (excluding the panhandle). :angry:  We didn't receive anything from the last storm and won't from this one.  At this rate, the drought in the state is only going to worsen if no precipitation falls, which will lead to a nasty 2014.

Yeah, in order to help you out on the precip side, the developing surface low pressure would need to dig much further south towards the Gulf of Mexico so it can draw up some precipitation from there. As soon as the low develops and deepens, it's already in Central Arkansas shooting on up into the Great Lakes/W. NY state into Eastern Canada.

If I had any control over the weather, I would certainly change that. You just don't know how many times I've wished that was possible. :P


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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2014, 12:16:19 AM »
Hmm... NWS just dropped our temperatures for Monday.  Looks like the cold will be dipping farther south.  First time I can remember seeing the "Cold" icon on the 7-day for Dallas in awhile (and some of you are probably laughing right now :P).


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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2014, 12:26:19 AM »
Hmm... NWS just dropped our temperatures for Monday.  Looks like the cold will be dipping farther south.  First time I can remember seeing the "Cold" icon on the 7-day for Dallas in awhile (and some of you are probably laughing right now :P).




Maybe a little... :lol:

If the 0z GFS run tonight verifies I'm not getting above 20 Tuesday with 25-35 mph winds. On top of that throw in the chance of snow showers.  :brr: :brr: :brr: I have no idea what that equates to in wind chill value, but if I were to spitball it probably not far from -20F

30F is still cold if you throw in some stiff NW winds though.

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2014, 12:44:30 AM »
Tavores, you need a wind chill calculator as your guess was not even close. :P  Here, use this page with a handy chart at the top and an actual calculator at the bottom:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml

Just enter the air temperature and the sustained wind, and it will give you the wind chill value.  Do not use wind gusts as they are not suitable for determining what it feels like on average.  The wind chill value is only defined for air temperatures above -50F but below 50F and for sustained winds above 3 mph but below 110 mph.


Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Worst Arctic Outbreak in 20 Years Coming 1/5-8/2014
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2014, 06:52:02 AM »
Tavores, you need a wind chill calculator as your guess was not even close. :P  Here, use this page with a handy chart at the top and an actual calculator at the bottom:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml

Just enter the air temperature and the sustained wind, and it will give you the wind chill value.  Do not use wind gusts as they are not suitable for determining what it feels like on average.  The wind chill value is only defined for air temperatures above -50F but below 50F and for sustained winds above 3 mph but below 110 mph.


Yeah, WAY off. :lol: My guess would have been close if I was talking about our forecast low instead though.

Wind Chill Advisory was issued along with a Winter Weather Advisory (does not include Atlanta metro)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

GAZ022-023-033-034-044-045-053>055-060000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WC.Y.0002.140106T1600Z-140107T1800Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-COWETA-
FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...
EAST POINT...DECATUR...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY
627 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 10 BELOW.

* TIMING...MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...FROST BITE WHICH CAN LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS
  ARE NOT TAKEN.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.  IF YOU MUST VENTURE
OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.

&&

$$