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Author Topic: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014  (Read 1713 times)

Offline toxictwister00

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Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« on: February 09, 2014, 10:32:11 PM »
Another major winter storm is expected to slam and hammer the Southern CONUS hard and possibly slam folks along the Eastern seaboard as well.

Model guidance paints an ominous picture for folks in GA/SC/NC/VA. These states could be the hardest hit by snow and/or ice. Please note this is a long duration event; 24-36+ hours of wintry precipitation from TX to VA which is coming in two rounds, the second round model guidance has recently been trying to phase and amplify which has been causing the storm system to bomb as it travels up the East Coast.

Personal note:
It shouldn't come as no surprise Atlanta became the national spotlight for the disastrous traffic jam just two weeks ago due in part to city/state public officials, school districts, mayor/governor dropping the ball by not prepping adequately enough in time. I can tell you after the scrutiny they suffered from the public, the way they're going about this storm is a complete 180 degree turn around. There's too much to name, but so far from what I've heard and seen things should go much more smoothly this go around. I really hope they have woken up for their sake, what happened here was a complete embarrassment and shameful imo. :angry:

The NWS here is forecasting possibly 1-3 inches for Atlanta and Northwest GA; 3-6 inches (locally higher) for Northeast GA per the Winter Storm Watch which was recently updated an hour ago.

If you're going to be directly affected by this storm, please feel free to post about what's happening in your backyard if you can. :thumbsup:
« Last Edit: February 09, 2014, 10:34:29 PM by toxictwister00 »

Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2014, 10:43:35 PM »
It's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out.  NWS keeps changing our forecast here in Norman.  First we were supposed to get near nothing, then 1 to 2 inches, then only a dusting, and now we're back in the 1- to 2-inch range.  The ultimate track of the low pressure system will really determine what's going to happen.

I'm hoping for one last round of winter weather before we warm up to the 60s by the end of the week.  Norman has picked up around 5 inches of snow from last week's systems, and there's still some patches of snow around the city, meaning we have officially had snow on the ground for one week.

Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2014, 12:23:31 PM »
No snow yet, but freezing drizzle and fog has created numerous travel problems across central Oklahoma this morning.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2014, 06:34:43 PM »
Our NWS office is doing a superb job staying on top of this. They shared their concern about the ice potential in Atlanta, stating in their forecast discussion that the ice could be the worst Atlanta has seen in 10-20 years! :o

EDIT: Has anyone here seen the wild snowfall map the Euro was depicting? It showed 14 inches of snow here. It's too bad those snowfall maps also include sleet and ice accumulations otherwise Atlanta would have DESTROYED it's all time record snowfall of 10.3 inches set back in January 23, 1940. Atlanta has yet to document a 1 footer which is a bit disappointing considering quite a few Southern cities have... :(

EDIT #2: Also our Governor has already declared a State of Emergency for Atlanta/North Georgia; National Guard is already on standby.
-Road treatment is beginning as of right now.
-Schools/Colleges/Businesses are shutting down faster than falling dominoes.
-The stores are mobbed! I went to a local Walmart near my house and it was very busy.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2014, 06:48:06 PM by toxictwister00 »

phw115wvwx

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2014, 01:29:19 AM »
This same snowstorm is going to impact my area as well.  I wonder if central North Carolina and Virginia could see up to a foot, which hasn't been seen in a while.  I sure hope that things won't be so bad as I will be working on the evening this storm arrives.

Offline SamRichardson92

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2014, 08:16:54 AM »
YIKES.
(Images time sensitive)













Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2014, 05:15:53 PM »
An Ice Storm Warning has replaced the Winter Storm Warning that was in effect for areas south of I-20 (South ATL metro) Southside of Atlanta on eastward to August, GA appears to be the "ground zero" if you will for this crippling icestorm.

I hope folks south of me are able to stay safe and warm from the dangerous ice. :( Having personally been through a few icestorms myself in Atlanta I can assure you if you've never been through one, it's no joke and it ain't as pretty to deal with as it looks especially if you're stuck inside with no power. :no:

The NWS and the local media have been using words/phrases such as: Crippling, Catastrophic, and Historic Proportions to describe how dangerous this storm is expected to be. I'm glad they are, folks need to realize just how serious this really is.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2014, 05:18:15 PM by toxictwister00 »

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2014, 05:52:39 PM »
Parts of N. GA mountains could accumulate up to a foot of snow! WOW! :thrilled: My totals have been bumped up in the 2-5 inch range w/ .50 inch of ice expected.

Here's the forecast disco that mentions this. As you can tell right from the beginning, the crew at the NWS have been tirelessly working hard all day to keep folks abreast of this potentially dangerous storm. It's long, but it's an excellent read and clearly explains how complex and unusual this storm system is. :yes:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
455 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH CRIPPLING EFFECTS STILL EXPECTED...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

VERY SORRY TO BE SO LATE WITH THIS BUT LOTS OF COORDINATION AND
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS. FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING PRODUCED QUITE THE SWATH OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE
BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING ROSE ABOVE BY MID MORNING AND ARE NOW
IN THE MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE AVERAGE 2 TO 3
INCH SNOWFALL TO MELT IN SOME LOCATIONS. WE DID HAVE REPORTS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 6 INCHES WITHIN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS
WHICH MOVED THROUGH.
A MUCH NEEDED BREAK CURRENTLY AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH EVEN SOME NVA WORKING INTO THE AREA AT
THIS HOUR FOR THE NORTH. TO THE SOUTH...STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE BUT OVERALL POP TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD.

MODEL CHANGES...
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH TRENDS BEING A COLDER
SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH BRINGS IN MID 20S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN DEVELOPING WEDGE. THIS WILL MAKE THE ENTIRE
DIFFERENCE IN THIS FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOWER
30S WOULD STILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM BUT NOT A HISTORIC
ONE. NAM12 IS HIGHER WITH ITS TEMPS BUT STILL HAS AREAS RIGHT
AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK AND SIGNIFICANT ICING IMPACTS. BASED ON
THE CLIMATOLOGY OF DEVELOPING CAD WEDGES AND THE EXPECTED QPF FROM
WPC...HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE DIRE PREDICTIONS OF A HALF AND INCH
OF ICE TO CLOSE TO AN INCH FOR EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
BIGGEST CHANGE PERHAPS IS THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH NOW 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH 10 INCHES TO PERHAPS A FOOT
POSSIBLE IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. WE ALSO INCREASE THE TOTALS FOR THE
NORTH ATLANTA METRO WITH AN INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF
OVER A QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WAS
USING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH UTILIZING GIVEN WPC QPF. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE MORE MIXING IN OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WHICH
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE SNOWFALL TOTALS.

WRAP AROUND STILL LOOKS SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS STORM BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST ALL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN WENT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT SOME
OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING BUT IF DEFORMATION AXIS IS SLOWER TO
LIFT OUT...SNOW TOTALS WOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED.


IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THE ABOVE...WINDS WILL ALSO PROVE TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS CREATING HAVOC WITHIN THE WINTER STORM
AND ICE STORM WARNINGS. TREES WILL BE EASILY SNAPPED OR TOPPLED
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...ICE AND WINDS. POWERLINES WILL
ALSO BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AND SOME RESIDENTS WILL BE WITHOUT
POWER FOR DAYS AND PERHAPS UP TO A WEEK.


IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT EFFECTS FORM THIS STORM WILL
NOT END WITH THE PRECIP. AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST FOUND OUT
WITH THE LAST STORM...MELTING OF ICE ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION ON AREA INTERSTATES AS
LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE FALL FROM ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.


DEESE

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2014, 11:18:55 AM »
Boy, talk about dodging a bullet. The heavy sleet we had for several hours this morning saved us from a long duration of freezing rain. I think we only accumulated about 1/10th inch, the southside of town where the airport is was not so lucky. On average, 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice has accumulated down there and a large number of power outages are in that area on south. There's over 100,000 Georgians without power as I type this. I know had we gotten the ice accumulations the airport did I would without a doubt be sitting in the dark right now. We also accumulated around 2 inches of sleet! :thrilled:

Right now we're getting a light, steady snowfall, the deformation band is expected to pass right over us tonight and depart early Thursday morning. I can't wait! :D :dance:

Offline stormymikala

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2014, 04:59:27 PM »
I've been watching this storm since I have Connecticut and other northeast relatives.

phw115wvwx

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2014, 12:00:20 AM »
My area has definitely had the most snow in the last 5 years or so thanks to this storm.  I just got home while a good 10" is on the ground and the roads were not that pretty, but I thankfully know how to drive in snow and have an all-wheel-drive vehicle.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2014, 06:14:15 PM »
I fared out about the same with this storm as I did with the January 28th event (or Winter Storm Leon as TWC called it)

For me I had 3 inches (this includes the 2 inches of sleet/1 inch of snow)

Right now there's still 200,000 Georgians w/o power, at the peak of the storm there were over half a million (513,000) that lost their power. 75% of those folks were in Augusta, GA alone. :o

Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2014, 06:18:25 PM »
The HRRR has been hands down the best computer model to use this winter here. It has been perfect in every storm here this winter and it scored a coup this time around. It was the only model to show 10"+ here last night while most models had 4-8". Ended up with 11.5". Now the HRRR wants to dump another 12" over NYC in a deformation band as the closed H5 low passes over to the east. We'll see if it continues to dominate.
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2014, 07:42:26 PM »
The HRRR has been hands down the best computer model to use this winter here. It has been perfect in every storm here this winter and it scored a coup this time around. It was the only model to show 10"+ here last night while most models had 4-8". Ended up with 11.5". Now the HRRR wants to dump another 12" over NYC in a deformation band as the closed H5 low passes over to the east. We'll see if it continues to dominate.

The HRRR did ok here, it was wrong about was there being a transition to heavy snow near the onset of the storm, it was heavy sleet instead. Thank god it changed over from freezing rain when it did it saved us from a terrible icestorm. I got very nervous and worried when I saw it already accumulating on the power lines within just a few hours of starting, I can only imagine what another 12 hours of that crap would have done.

Also the global models went a bit overboard on the ice potential here, but the NAM was definitely one of if not the worst overall. It kept insisting we were gonna get 1-2 inches of ice here. What the heck was it smokin'? :huh:

Offline TWCCraig

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Re: Winter Storm Pax - February 10-13, 2014
« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2014, 08:12:37 PM »
The HRRR has been hands down the best computer model to use this winter here. It has been perfect in every storm here this winter and it scored a coup this time around. It was the only model to show 10"+ here last night while most models had 4-8". Ended up with 11.5". Now the HRRR wants to dump another 12" over NYC in a deformation band as the closed H5 low passes over to the east. We'll see if it continues to dominate.

The HRRR did ok here, it was wrong about was there being a transition too heavy snow near the onset of the storm, it was heavy sleet instead. Thank god it changed over from freezing rain when it did it saved us from a terrible icestorm. I got very nervous and worried when I saw it already accumulating on the power lines within just a few hours of starting, I can only imagine what another 12 hours of that crap would have done.

Also the global models went a bit overboard on the ice potential here, but the NAM was definitely one of if not the worst overall. It kept insisting we were gonna get 1-2 inches of ice here. What the heck was it smokin'? :huh:

The NAM hasn't been that good with winter storms here either. I noticed it's usually too aggressive with WAA in the mid levels. The GFS was poor here, as it is in most east coast storms, can't handle southern stream energy well. The HRRR is backing off on the snow totals here. About 2" here and 4" in the city. We are about to get pounded with heavy rain/sleet and thunderstorms at 33 degrees. What a way to ruin a snow pack. About 15" depth here.

What a storm for the entire east coast.
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