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Author Topic: Severe Weather Season 2012  (Read 22048 times)

Offline Mr. Rainman

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Severe Weather Season 2012
« on: January 21, 2012, 01:47:42 PM »
Creating this thread as tomorrow looks like a busy day severe weather wise for Dixie Alley. SPC has a high-end slight risk out for a large part of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley...however, their outlook does cite that a moderate risk zone may be warranted tomorrow. If they do, expect these cities to be included:

Evansville
Bowling Green
Nashville
Memphis
Jackson
Birmingham


The probability outlook is posted below.

EDIT: Moderate Risk is out.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2012, 01:03:29 AM by plane852 »
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2012, 03:27:30 PM »
I had some time today, this is a detailed summary on the severe wx today. If I had a microphone, I would have just talked about it, but since I don't this is the best I could do.

Severe Weather Outlook For Sunday, January 22, 2012


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Offline Localonthe8s

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2012, 03:57:01 PM »
I can NOT wait! I love severe weather. I hope we have just as many EF5s and tornado outbreaks like last year, however I do not want to see the fatalities or excessive damage. I hope last year's events serves as a warning and reminder for people to take these storms more seriously.

For one, in my college severe storm preparedness is never talked about. For a university with 40,000 kids, we lack a PA system and are dependent on email to alert students. If a tornado or something were to strike here (my psych professor said this during lecture last year), we'd be in serious trouble because of lack of warnings. It doesn't help having large windows in every classroom building either. :/

Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2012, 04:22:03 PM »
Expect a tornado watch to be issued just west of the moderate risk zone by 6 PM CST as the approaching cold front triggers these storms. Supercells initially, and a squall line later in the evening. The fact that this is an overnight threat is particularly dangerous. Stay safe for those of you out in that region.

By the way, Tavores, what song is that?
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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2012, 04:27:18 PM »
I can NOT wait! I love severe weather. I hope we have just as many EF5s and tornado outbreaks like last year, however I do not want to see the fatalities or excessive damage. I hope last year's events serves as a warning and reminder for people to take these storms more seriously.

For one, in my college severe storm preparedness is never talked about. For a university with 40,000 kids, we lack a PA system and are dependent on email to alert students. If a tornado or something were to strike here (my psych professor said this during lecture last year), we'd be in serious trouble because of lack of warnings. It doesn't help having large windows in every classroom building either. :/

Although I understand where you're coming from here, I don't want anything similar to what happened last Spring to happen again, my hope is that will be once in a lifetime event. I would hate for 2012 to get off to a faster pace than 2011 on tornadoes not even being a full month into the year.

Expect a tornado watch to be issued just west of the moderate risk zone by 6 PM CST as the approaching cold front triggers these storms. Supercells initially, and a squall line later in the evening. The fact that this is an overnight threat is particularly dangerous. Stay safe for those of you out in that region.

By the way, Tavores, what song is that?

Easy title to remember, it's "3rd Force" by 3rd Force.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2012, 04:29:46 PM by Weatherlover »


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Offline Trevor

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2012, 04:39:08 PM »
Mike Seidel is here in Memphis, reporting on the storms. It's gonna get bad tonight.

Offline WeatherWitness

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2012, 04:50:58 PM »
I can NOT wait! I love severe weather. I hope we have just as many EF5s and tornado outbreaks like last year, however I do not want to see the fatalities or excessive damage. I hope last year's events serves as a warning and reminder for people to take these storms more seriously.

Unless all the EF5 tornadoes touch down in a big open field, I don't see how we can have a season like last year and at the same time see less damage and fatalities. :thinking:  Fatalities could be lower if people prepare and are more aware, but excessive damage will likely still be prominent if we have a severe weather season like last year.

For one, in my college severe storm preparedness is never talked about. For a university with 40,000 kids, we lack a PA system and are dependent on email to alert students. If a tornado or something were to strike here (my psych professor said this during lecture last year), we'd be in serious trouble because of lack of warnings. It doesn't help having large windows in every classroom building either. :/

That's a problem.  Here at OU, we're obviously prepared (can you imagine why? :P).  In the dorms, there is a PA system that will alert everyone to seek shelter.  Tornado sirens will, of course, also be used.  And a lot of our lecture halls have no windows, so they would definitely serve as a good shelter space.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #7 on: January 22, 2012, 04:52:59 PM »
Mike Seidel is here in Memphis, reporting on the storms. It's gonna get bad tonight.

Stay safe and alert, it looks to get nasty pretty rapidly within the next couple of hours.

The saving graces I see for my neck of the woods is that most of the activity will be coming in overnight into the early morning hours and right now were stuck in a cold wedge. It's expected to break, but i don't know if it will break in time to destabilize conditions here for severe weather overnight tonight into Monday morning.


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Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #8 on: January 22, 2012, 04:54:36 PM »
UND has a siren system and a text system that automatically pushes tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings to your phone. And seeing how flat it is here (and probably in Oklahoma), you can see the thing coming from miles away. It's common practice to drive out to the airport to see if you can see the tornado coming - assuming it's weak, of course.
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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #9 on: January 22, 2012, 05:24:36 PM »
Unfortunately, I foresee 2012 being active again just like last year, because we're coming out of a La Niņa winter again.  There are ongoing research studies saying that overall severe weather activity increases in the United States when we come out of a La Niņa winter.  The jet stream is further north than normal, which allows for the development of severe weather across the southern and middle portions of the country.  In contrast, the jet stream is further south toward the Gulf Coast after an El Niņo winter, which reduces the risk of severe weather for the rest of the country to the north.

Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #10 on: January 22, 2012, 06:25:30 PM »
The 5th watch SPC issues this entire year is a PDS...holy cow.

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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #11 on: January 22, 2012, 08:02:24 PM »
Impressive for January, I wasn't expecting them to go that far with the tornado watches. New Meso discussion says tornado threat is increasing west of MEM. (Eastern AR)

EDIT: I was wondering if the PDS Tornado Watch was going to make Dr. Forbes increase his TOR CON numbers, looks like he's gone from a 6 to an 8 now.



Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...
   
   VALID 230048Z - 230145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AR AND INCIPIENT
   REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING...WITH PROBABLE
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO NERN AR.

   
   AS OF 0045Z...LEAD BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDED IN A NNE-SSW
   ORIENTATION FROM RANDOLPH TO COLUMBIA COUNTIES. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
   MESOCYCLONES CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH INITIAL TORNADO WARNINGS
   HAVING BEEN RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS S-CNTRL AR. MODIFIED 00Z
   LZK/SHV/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF 750-1250 J/KG IS PREVALENT AHEAD
   OF THIS BAND FROM S-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL AR. WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NOW IN
   EXCESS OF 500-600 M2/S2...EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VERY LARGE
   HODOGRAPHS BREEDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED/LONG-TRACKED
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

   
   ..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   33599294 34599229 35819144 36129113 36209053 35869026
               34919056 33629133 33479170 33309213 33449260 33599294
« Last Edit: January 22, 2012, 08:04:07 PM by Weatherlover »


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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2012, 08:46:41 PM »
We got our first confirmed tornado on the ground hitting Fordyce, AR.


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Offline Localonthe8s

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2012, 08:57:53 PM »
This is interesting but I don't have a TV to watch the coverage. Is there anything online I can watch in regards to this outbreak?

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2012, 09:06:03 PM »
This is interesting but I don't have a TV to watch the coverage. Is there anything online I can watch in regards to this outbreak?


KATV is running a live stream on the severe weather.
http://www.katv.com/


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