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WTNT41 KNHC 292058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND UNCONTAMINATED SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM. AS A RESULT...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/15...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE TOMAS ON
MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...A SECOND MUCH
DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING
CURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SHARP DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY 120 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS...WHICH ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN IS EXPECTED.
RECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE NOT YET VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS...AND LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR TOMAS TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THESE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND
Tropical Storm SHARY Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
000
WTNT45 KNHC 290254
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010
SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC. BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. SINCE THERE IS
ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20. IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF. FOR NOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS
