TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCmatthew on May 12, 2012, 02:30:32 PM
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Welcome to Hurricane Central 2012!
Today, Saturday, May 12, 2012, we already have two invests; one in the eastern Pacific, and one in the eastern Atlantic.
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Someone was really quick to start this thread even though the season hasn't started yet! :P Anyway, we'll follow the same rules this year just like we did last year. Here are the 2012 season names:
Atlantic: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William
Eastern Pacific: Aletta, Bud, Carlotta, Daniel, Emilia, Fabio, Gilma, Hector, Ileana, John, Kristy, Lane, Miriam, Norman, Olivia, Paul, Rosa, Sergio, Tara, Vicente, Willa, Xavier, Yolanda, Zeke
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So they're repeating some 2006 names for the Atlantic season (quick, not another Ernesto alert! :P)
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So they're repeating some 2006 names for the Atlantic season (quick, not another Ernesto alert! :P)
Victor, the names are recycled every six years. Since no names were retired from that lackluster season six years ago, the exact list from 2006 is being used this year.
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So they're repeating some 2006 names for the Atlantic season (quick, not another Ernesto alert! :P)
I'm surprised that you didn't know that :ermm: anyways I really hope your joking.. because any weather fan should know that if no names are retired that they get looped every 6 years
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No I didn't know that. I knew names were recycled but not every 6 years
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Something tells me this year will be lackluster like 2006, but we'll see. I just hope they don't jump the gun again when we get to the "E" storm.
Also both disturbances haven't changed in probability of developing today...yet.
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General agreement that our Atlantic disturbance has winds of at least 45 knots, so just a good bit of organization could make this thing a sub-tropical storm.
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Hope some of the storms are more of the classic Cape Verde storms, which usually take tracks up the east coast. We'll have to see about that low the GFS is showing that could possibly form next week or so near the waters of the Western Caribbean.
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The Atlantic invest that you all mentioned earlier has weakened, and it doesn't appear anything will happen. The Eastern Pacific invest, however, has a 60% chance of development according to NHC. It has a small window of opportunity between now and Tuesday before upper-level winds become more unfavorable.
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Since it's a Pacific storm, I'll hold off on making a topic, but we now have Tropical Depression 1-E in the Pacific. It's expected to be a weak tropical storm and nothing more.
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Since it's a Pacific storm, I'll hold off on making a topic, but we now have Tropical Depression 1-E in the Pacific. It's expected to be a weak tropical storm and nothing more.
That depression did become tropical storm Aletta, but it appears that the winds won't get any stronger than 45 mph. I think we need Eastern Pacific storms to be really significant for anyone here to have enough interest to pursue a separate thread.
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The invest in the Atlantic has been upgraded to 50% chance of development. This will be something to keep an eye on.
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Ooooo! Exciting!(http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/popcorn.gif) One of our local mets was talking about this and saying one model shows it peaking at Cat 1 hurricane intensity! That would be very impressive for Late May, considering the season hasn't started yet. :P
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Here's the radar from Wilmington.
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OOO!!! :dance: Wow, can't wait to see what happens! Most tracks take it to the northeast! :twothumbs:
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Still not going to make a topic, but Hurricane Bud in the Pacific is about to become quite a headache for our pals down in Mexico. Here's the track.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect.
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Double post, sorry. But, did the Atlantic Basin EVER get the memo that the hurricane season didn't start until June 1st? :P We now have a 40% chance of development there. It looks like something could form on Saturday.
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Since development is starting earlier and earlier by the years, maybe the hurricane ppl should move the Atlantic season start from June 1st to may 1st or somewhere in between
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Since development is starting earlier and earlier by the years, maybe the hurricane ppl should move the Atlantic season start from June 1st to may 1st or somewhere in between
I don't think that's likely to happen. The only reason why this season started early was because of favorable upper level environments, (except the fact that there's been a lot shear). SST's are just slightly above average in the Caribbean. In Dr. Jeff Masters' Wunderblog, he said that it's more likely that this early season start is because of favorable environments. IMO, there's not enough support to push the season start day back a whole month. ;)
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Since development is starting earlier and earlier by the years, maybe the hurricane ppl should move the Atlantic season start from June 1st to may 1st or somewhere in between
I actually had the same thought a couple of times, but it might be better to leave it as is.
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Here's my meteorological answer regarding what to do with the hurricane season dates: Get rid of them altogether, because there is no such thing as a hurricane season! The atmosphere will allow the development of a tropical cyclone whenever conditions are right irregardless of the time of year. In the history of records kept for the Atlantic basin, a tropical cyclone has existed in every month of the year.
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Here's my meteorological answer regarding what to do with the hurricane season dates: Get rid of them altogether, because there is no such thing as a hurricane season! The atmosphere will allow the development of a tropical cyclone whenever conditions are right irregardless of the time of year. In the history of records kept for the Atlantic basin, a tropical cyclone has existed in every month of the year.
I like your thinking! Except for the word "irregardless." :)
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Here's my meteorological answer regarding what to do with the hurricane season dates: Get rid of them altogether, because there is no such thing as a hurricane season! The atmosphere will allow the development of a tropical cyclone whenever conditions are right irregardless of the time of year. In the history of records kept for the Atlantic basin, a tropical cyclone has existed in every month of the year.
Exactly, and same goes to what some people call "severe weather season."
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A new invest in the Atlantic has a 60% chance of development. We'll find out tomorrow if anything happens as NHC will release another special outlook on it.
Meanwhile, parts of Mexico are facing a nightmare situation as the second storm of the Eastern Pacific basin, Bud, has intensified to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph. While it may weaken just before landfall, the NHC track forecast has Bud coming ashore, stalling out over land, and slowly turning around the opposite direction toward the ocean before dissipating just offshore. There's going to be numerous mudslides, torrential rainfall, and destructive winds throughout this entire weekend for locations near Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. Hurricane warnings are in effect for that area now, and I fear a lot of death and destruction could occur. :(
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Eerie thing is the GFS "hinted" about Alberto and possibly Beryl, a good 10-12 days out. (Not trackwise but still) :blink: :unsure: :ermm:
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That invest in the Atlantic now has a near 100% chance of development, and we could very likely have Tropical Depression 3 or Tropical Storm Beryl.
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That invest in the Atlantic now has a near 100% chance of development, and we could very likely have Tropical Depression 3 or Tropical Storm Beryl.
I thought this would be TD1, because our first storm went right to Alberto, right? :unsure:
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That invest in the Atlantic now has a near 100% chance of development, and we could very likely have Tropical Depression 3 or Tropical Storm Beryl.
I thought this would be TD1, because our first storm went right to Alberto, right? :unsure:
Why I said 3, I have no idea. :P Sorry, TD 1.
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I think we'll have Beryl come the next advisory. :yes:
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Looks like we officially have Tropical Storm Beryl.
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Well, Subtropical Storm Beryl actually.
:offtopic: But I gotta say it, Beryl is such an outdated name.
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Tropical depression numbers follow the chronology of all tropical/subtropical systems that have formed. Therefore, if Beryl had started out as a tropical depression in the NHS's first bulletin, it would have been T.D. #2, since Alberto was the first system, even though its first bulletin already had it as a tropical storm.
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Everything has gone silent since the early action fizzled. It is common for a long lull to occur after we get early storms to develop. We still have to watch though as it only takes one big storm making a huge impact to change the tone of a season completely.
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Future TS Carlotta looks to hit Mexico within the next few days as a hurricane if forecasts play out. This will be a system to keep an eye on.
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Double post, sorry. :wacko:
Found this interesting - the man who co-founded the Saffir-Simpson scale is turning 100 in November.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/story/2012-06-13/hurricane-simpson/55605488/1 (http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/story/2012-06-13/hurricane-simpson/55605488/1)
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Future TS Carlotta looks to hit Mexico within the next few days as a hurricane if forecasts play out. This will be a system to keep an eye on.
Carlotta made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph, but it had reached a peak of 105 mph a few hours before it hit Mexico. Two children are dead due to mudslides.
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Has anyone seen the West Pacific?
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Looking at global models, it appears we might have a chance of a "Chris" on the horizon by this time next weekend/work week after that. The areas that could be affect would be from TX to MS as far as landfall. I'll provide more details either later this evening or tomorrow and then thoughout the week if it keeps showing up. ;)
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This hasn't been mentioned yet....
(http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/2649/atlinvest.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/10/atlinvest.png/)
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Just a quick writeup I did on the tropical disturbance heading into the GOM. I left some tings out so this wouldn't be too long. I also broke it down into 3 categories. :)
Debby to Make A Debut In the Gulf Soon?
Tuesday, June 19, 2012 10:00pm ET
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CURRENTLY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN CUBA WHERE
THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS.
WIND SHEAR...AS OF TODAY, WIND SHEAR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 50 KTS WHICH GREATLY REDUCES LITTLE IF ANY ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST. WIND SHEAR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN VERY HOSTILE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, NORTHWESTERN CUBA, AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS REGION.
SEA SURFACE TEMPS...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF, TEMPS ARE RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80s EVENTHOUGH WE ARE ONLY 19 DAYS INTO HURRICANE SEASON. THIS IS WELL THAN ENOUGH FUEL FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO FEED OFF OF, BUT WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF WIND SHEAR NOT BEING FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT TERM, SST WILL DO VERY LITTLE IN GETTING THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZED WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
RAIN/FLOODING PROSPECTS...WHETHER WE HAVE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, A TROPICAL STORM DEBBY, OR JUST AN OPEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS EARLY AS TOMORROW. OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES COULD OCCUR FROM A LINE OF FORT MYERS TO FORT PIERCE, FL SOUTHWARD. AN ISOLATED AREA OF 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. NORTH OF FORT PIERCE TO FT MYERS TO A TAMPA TO ORLANDO LINE CAN EXPECT TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 2 INCHES, A TRACE TO 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM JACKSONVILLE SOUTH TO THE TAMPA/ORLANDO LINE ACCORDING TO THE HPC. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AREAS SUCH AS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA COULD SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON QUICKLY DISSIPATING IN IN THE EVENING. IF YOU LIVE IN A LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREA PLEASE TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY AND IF YOU'RE DRIVING AND OBSERVE FLOODED ROADWAYS, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
SUMMARY...OVERALL, I DO NOT EXPECT THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO TRANSFORM INTO A TROPICAL STORM DEBBY GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. I GIVE THIS DISTURBANCE A 20% CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS AND A NEAR 0% CHANCE OF BECOMING DEBBY OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE GOOD NEWS IS I EXPECT FLORIDA, PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME WELCOME, APPRECIATED RAINFALL OVER THE DURATION OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
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One wonders whether this will have the opportunity to actually develop into a tropical system, or whether this will be like last October's not-quite-tropical storm that still caused a lot of problems. Either way, there's going to be a whole lot of wet.
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"Debby" is looking more likely to develop over the weekend into early next week. The 12z Euro and the 12z Canadian was the most agressive today. The Euro showed a 988mb system which could translate to a strong tropical storm to borderline Category 1 Hurricane hitting the West Coast of Florida by midweek next week. The Canadian however showed a system of similar strength (986mb), but this is where they differ, the Canadian takes the system towards extreme Southern Texas/Mexico. The 12z GFS was more in line with the Euro, but it showed a weaker storm (996mb). The NHC has increased chance of development within the next 48hrs up to 30% medium chance as of 8pm ET tonight. Basically anyone living from Texas to Florida should be on guard for tropical development over the next few days. :yes:
My predictions
Chance of Depression (within 96 hours) - 70%
Chance of Tropical Storm Status (within 96 hours) - 40%
Chance of Hurricane Status (within 96 hours) - 20%
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The extended forecast screen for Daytona Beach already has a red box drawn around Saturday with the expectation of "heavy rain."
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I hope this doesn't come our way. The last thing we need here is more rain after the massive flooding mess we got just a couple of weeks ago. :o
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Flooding isn't a good thing, but a drought isn't, either. There's obviously no such thing as "ideal" in real life, but I'd personally like to see a little more rain than parched land and wildfires all over the place.
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I couldn't sleep tonight so I figured I would provide an update on what some of the models are showing.
Potential "Debby" Update
Thursday, June 21, 2012 7:00am
0z GFS - Basically the same as the 12z run, but I noticed a secondary low shows up behind what could be "Debby" traveling a similar track across Central Florida. "Debby" is weak when it travels across FL, in fact it doesn't really intensify until it's out in the Atlantic, a few hundreds of miles off the East Coast.
Two lows? - Hour 108 Monday, June 25, 2012
(http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/254/0zgfs2lows.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/542/0zgfs2lows.png/)
0z Euro - Didn't waffle much from the 12z run. It stills shows a 988mb low heading for FL. An East Coast Trough blocks "Debby" from getting any further north and west. It rides along the periphery of the trough before pulled in NW into New England/Canada at the end of the run. "Debby" bombs down to an impressive 970mb low at it's peak! Everyone on the shores of FL to NE would need to be vigilant on the high risk of rip currents "Debby" would cause in this scenario. Something else to note, the EURO is much slower than the GFS by about 3 days, "Debby" wouldn't directly make landfall over FL until next Thursday, while on the GFS, it would be next Monday.
Striking FL (North of Tampa) - Hour 168 Thursday, June 28, 2012
(http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/9148/0zeuro.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/411/0zeuro.png/)
A Tease for those of you in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic...
Saturday, June 30, 2012
(http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/7275/0zeuro3.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/405/0zeuro3.png/)
And Lastly the 0z Canadian: The total opposite of the EURO in terms of track.
I gotta give it to the Canadian, it's holding it's ground in sending "Debby" to Texas/Mexico. You're probably wondering, "Why is the Canadian so different from the GFS/EURO on the track?" It's mainly because of the position of the ridge across the Central Plains. "Debby" tries to undercut that ridge by traveling around the southern periphery of it even though a trough along the Eastern US moves in, it's later than the GFS/EURO and "Debby" is too far west to be influenced by the incoming digging trough and be pulled NEward towards FL. "Debby" at her peak bombs down to 975mb and that's only about four hundred miles off of the TX coast!
(http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/6299/0zcmc.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/526/0zcmc.png/)
Thanks for reading and I hoped you all enjoyed. :wave:
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988mb, 970mb, and 985mb are all fairly impressive pressures for a tropical system. As Denis Phillips would say, I don't think it's anything to write home about just yet. Just keep an eye on it. It is a week away, but it does look interesting.
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I'm not sure if this applies to tropical storms and depressions, but as a reminder, pressure has not had an impact on categorization of a storm since 2010, but instead, just the winds. :thumbsup:
OT: Trevor, how do you know about Dennis Phillips?! :lol: If you're referring to the chief meteorologist of WFTS in Tampa that is.
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Yep, plenty of time to watch especially with all the model disagreement on the track and strength. NAM/UKMET are on the CMC's team while the NOGAPS is on the GFS/EURO's team. Hopefully some of this will start ironing out once there's actually some form of a closed circulation in the Gulf to track. If the EURO and CMC are showing pressures that low this early, it makes you wonder if that turns out not to be deep enough if it gets a good amount of time to get going in a favorable environment... :thinking:
I'm not sure if this applies to tropical storms and depressions, but as a reminder, pressure has not had an impact on categorization of a storm since 2010, but instead, just the winds. :thumbsup:
OT: Trevor, how do you know about Dennis Phillips?! :lol: If you're referring to the chief meteorologist of WFTS in Tampa that is.
I'm aware of that :yes:, I hope my post from earlier doesn't give the impression of that being the case. We've had plenty of examples of this in the past and funny enough the ones I can think of off the top of my head are "I" storms (Ike, Ida, Irene, etc) I was just intrigued by how low it gets on the EURO/CMC considering it's not well defined yet.
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We now have Hurricane Chris as of the 11am advisory
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We now have Hurricane Chris as of the 11am advisory
Really? :blink: Heh, I thought this thing was gonna be long gone by now. I haven't been paying it much attention anyway.
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Invest in the Atlantic is now up to 50% and conditions are looking good for continued development in the long term. This could get interesting for the Gulf Coast.
Looks like Hurricane Amnesia is finally over. Three storms so far with 2 affecting the U.S. with either heavy rainfall or gusty winds, and if Debby forms...well.
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OT: Trevor, how do you know about Dennis Phillips?! :lol: If you're referring to the chief meteorologist of WFTS in Tampa that is.
Haha, I heard about his nightly weather chats off of Mike's weather page. I watch his live stream almost every night. :bleh:
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I'm thinking this Hurricane Season will be above average. One reason being because El Nino hasn't kicked in yet, were still in Neutral conditions.
Just a Preliminary Prediction...
16 storms
10 Tropical Storms
6 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
Also this is way, way out there, but the GFS keeps showing Cape Verde disturbances for the latter end of this month into the first week of July. Just something to think about once we get to that time period.
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The area in the Caribbean is now officially Invest 96 (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2012&MO=06&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=96L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc12/ATL/94W.INVEST/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi). Spaghetti models should come soon.
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Here's the updated spaghetti models
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Gotta love model madness, EURO jumped ship with the Canadian, now it wants to send the Invest to TX, but it's a good 7mb weaker than the 12z Canadian. (12z Canadian = 986mb and the 12z EURO = 993mb)
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Most intensity models take this thing to a strong tropical storm, but not to hurricane status.
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NHC has increased the chances up to 50% of the new invest developing into something over the next 48 hours. Here is one I would be worried about if I lived along the Gulf Coast.
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I guess that includes me :noexpression:
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Very much so at the moment.
EDIT: Up to 70% now, wouldn't be surprised if we have a depression or "Debby" by tomorrow or Saturday at this rate.
1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO
IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
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Have you guys seen the 06z GFS run? Two lows????
EDIT: I know Tavores also brought this up earlier :thumbsup:
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GFS is doing some peculiar things the past couple of runs. 00z run last night stalled "Debby" along the Gulf Coast for an entire week dying out because it's stuck between a ridge and a trough. I hope that doesn't happen, the immediate GC doesn't need that kind of rainfall for that long period of time. :no:
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I hope that doesn't happen, the immediate GC doesn't need that kind of rainfall for that long period of time. :no:
I don't think any location needs a week's worth of heavy rainfall in a single go ever! :blink:
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Invest 96L is now up to an 80% chance of development. Attached below are the spaghetti models.
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What a hot mess. :P
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Invest 96L is now up to an 80% chance of development. Attached below are the spaghetti models.
Zach, might I ask where did you get that KML?
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Invest 96L is now up to an 80% chance of development. Attached below are the spaghetti models.
Zach, might I ask where did you get that KML?
Gosh, I've had that KMZ file for so long I cant remember :no: Sorry :hmm:
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Invest 96L is now up to an 80% chance of development. Attached below are the spaghetti models.
Zach, might I ask where did you get that KML?
Gosh, I've had that KMZ file for so long I cant remember :no: Sorry :hmm:
Hey! I found it, didn't take much either, nothing but a simple search on Google for "google earth weather kmz". Thanks for trying though :thumbsup:
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Sorry for double post
NHC now giving it a 90% chance of development.
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It looks better than it did this time yesterday. A buoy ENE of the supposed center reported winds at tropical storm force so it might skip depression status whenever it gets upgraded.
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:doublepost: Expect Debby by 5pm advisory
AL, 04, 2012062318, , BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 0, 1008, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEBBY, M,
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I hate to make a third consecutive post, but I noticed another area of interest has popped up in the Atlantic. Our First Cape Verde Disturbance to monitor.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl1.gif)
1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
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The Atlantic basin is completely quiet, but there are two active storms in the Eastern Pacific basin right now. Daniel became a Category 3 hurricane last night, but it appears to be weakening today. Emilia will become a hurricane later tonight into tomorrow. Both storms do not pose a threat to land, but they will both dissipate by the time they pass south of Hawaii.
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Going long range, August looks to likely pick up where May/June left off. 00z GFS last night showed two Cape Verde disturbances and both look to develop to at least TS status ("Ernesto" was a Fish storm this run while "Florence" looks like it could pose a threat to landmass further downstream that run)With that being said however, anything showing up on the Global models so far out is mainly nothing but gossip at best.
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Yeah, GFS likes to start daydreaming like crazy after about a week out. In the short range, though - 40% chance of development in the open Atlantic.
1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT
GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS
AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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If we move into an El Niņo pattern this fall as indicators in the Pacific are hinting now, you're not going to see August or the rest of the season be fairly active in the Atlantic. We would be looking for one big storm out of a few to hit us. The Eastern Pacific would take off in activity for this situation.
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I mentioned how the GFS was showing Cape Verde disturbances from now going into early August. Looks like we got one with a lemon drop on it. This is also the one the GFS has been showing slowly developing somewhat before basically disappearing into oblivion once it's in the Central Caribbean.
(http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/4660/atl1y.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/339/atl1y.gif/)
1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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It seems like both basins have come to a halt lately. We may be waiting until August for some reemergence of activity.
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Not so fast...
1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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If this area of low pressure were to develop in to something, we could have Ernesto soon. Here are the spaghetti models:
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If this area of low pressure were to develop in to something, we could have Ernesto soon. Here are the spaghetti models:
Fond memories with the last Ernesto in 06.
https://public.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pDvTTeVdV7eiglBPi116fTqR_2Fqh4UkKnOdha4qIonFH0LaqDaXSTYkZzGpz-isk5xBB-B8ihTV81DE1kOJP8w/waves%20forecast.gif
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Not that this means anything, but below is a list of hurricanes/tropical storms that were in the current track/position of where invest 99L is right now, there are some interesting ones listed too. I'll redo this list and narrow it if/when we have a TD that has developed.
NOTE: I only visited the years of the 1981-2011 period. I also want to make it clear that even though there are some scary names listed, I'm not using this list to say this invest will turn into any of these tropical cyclones, this list is based on tracks ONLY.
Hurricane Karen (2007)
Hurricane Emily (2005)
Hurricane Ivan (2004) - Formed further east (around 32W)
Tropical Storm Nicholas (2003)
Tropical Storm Dolly (2002) - Formed further east (around 30W)
Hurricane Bertha (1996)
Tropical Storm Bret (1993) - There are a couple of GFS ensembles that have a similar track which is why I'm including this one.
Hurricane Andrew (1992) - The Canadian yesterday I believe showed a similar track to this one, but I don't think it had the invest hitting FL or the SE coast for that matter.
Tropical Storm Danny (1991) - Formed further east (around 30W)
Out of all of these, I personally think Hurricane Emily and Tropical Storm Bret would be the best analog tracks going by the ensemble model tracks right now. :yes:
Hurricane Allen (1980) is another good analog track, it's similar to Hurricane Emily; I also think this type of track is feasible. :yes:
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1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
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Here's where i think the Invest will go
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I disagree. All of the models are trending for a landfall in the Gulf. I think overall that it is far too early to come to conclusions on paths.
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201299_model.gif)
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I disagree. All of the models are trending for a landfall in the Gulf. I think overall that it is far too early to come to conclusions on paths.
([url]http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201299_model.gif[/url])
You also have to keep in mind until hard-core data on a system and a true center of circulation is found, models can only be taken with a grain of salt.
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Anybodys guess at this point but its fun to try and predict it this far out :P It would be fun to see Ernesto II hit the same areas
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Here's where i think the Invest will go
Not to be a debbie downer on you Alex, but I think that type of track is the least likely to happen eventhough I see the 00z ECMWF shows a track like that much further west and closer to the east coast and that's only because it shows a stronger storm. This invest would have to be a lot stronger than it is so what weakness there is from the CA high can pull it northward in that direction so since it's still relatively weak it should continue to travel along the steering currents westward. The bigger question here is not where it's going, but will it survive getting there? Models still show this invest being killed like pesticide once it's in the Caribbean. (ECMWF kills it once it's in the Bahamas) CMC still wants to keep it going at hr 144 it's in the Bahamas.
EDIT: 6z GFS showed a Hurricane Dean (2007) type track, taking the invest into the Yucatan/Mexico. It also showed a fish storm "Florence" floating around in the the Central Atlantic.
(http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2007_charts/at200704.gif)
CODE RED NOW
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
EDIT #2: 12z GFS still aiming for the Yucatan Peninsula as the prime landfall target.
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Has anyone seen the latest GFS run (18z)? We already have TD Five to worry about, but now, the GFS is showing a new storm, possibly a hurricane through the mid to late weeks of August. Now this way to far out to say if this storm will ever form, considering that this also the first GFS run to show this storm. Here's Friday Aug 17th, 18z:
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Actually it was on the 6z run also, but much further east out in the Central Atlantic. However, every run since the 18z yesterday is still showing something around the 17th anywhere down near the Bahamas to the Lesser Antilles. :yes:
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NHC has a CODE YELLOW on another disturbance GFS/ECMWF had shown quickly ramping up into Florence. It looks impressive so far. :yes:
1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
-
Good to see activity heating up inthe Tropics
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Just to update, the Cape Verde disturbance I posted and said was Code Yellow has been upgraded to CODE ORANGE - 30% chance. A CODE YELLOW - 10% chance has been added for the disturbance over the Bahamas also. :yes:
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Just to update, the Cape Verde disturbance I posted and said was Code Yellow has been upgraded to CODE ORANGE - 30% chance. A CODE YELLOW - 10% chance has been added for the disturbance over the Bahamas also. :yes:
The Cape Verde tropical wave looks more interesting to me than Ernesto. Go figure. :P
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Both invests in the Atlantic have increased chances of development. The invest close to the Southeast coastline has been bumped up to 20% because of improved conditions in its path over the weekend. The Cape Verde disturbance is bumped up to 50%, but it is important to note that this invest has a shortening window of oppurtunity before dry air downstream begins to affect it.
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Invest 91L has my interest...at least maybe it'll bring some welcome rains to areas that need it. I'm losing patience with Ernesto already. :P
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201291_model.gif)
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I'm not surprised about the new invest. I saw that same system on the NAM making landfall in Florida. Might not develop into much though.
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Florida invest remains at 20%. It's window of oppurtunity is shrinking as it continues to near land.
The Cape Verde disturbance remains the star of the show, with chance of develop now at 70%. NHC may begin issuing advisories on it tonight if current organizational trends continue. Again, dry air looks to be a factor in a few days regardless of earlier development.
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Feeling the impacts this morning from the tropical wave that was over the Bahama's earlier this week. Rain showers all over the place and a bit breezy.
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Feeling the impacts this morning from the tropical wave that was over the Bahama's earlier this week. Rain showers all over the place and a bit breezy.
It sure has been humid thats for sure! Yuck!
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Fwiw, the 00z GFS still shows there is a Hurricane (probably major status) affects the East Coast between August 20-22. Again, WAY out there, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me. We have plenty of time to watch it starting as early as this Friday as that's when the wave exits off the African coast. It also turns it into a tropical storm as soon as it's out in the water.
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New area of interest...
1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
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Fwiw, the 00z GFS still shows there is a Hurricane (probably major status) affects the East Coast between August 20-22. Again, WAY out there, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me. We have plenty of time to watch it starting as early as this Friday as that's when the wave exits off the African coast. It also turns it into a tropical storm as soon as it's out in the water.
I saw that same system days ago on the GFS impacting the east coast and made a post of it earlier in this thread (top of the page), it's been showing up on almost every GFS run so I'm confident in it's formation, not so confident on it's track, I give it a 40% chance of impacting the east coast.
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I'm waiting until anything develops before giving any confidence whatsoever on a tropical cyclone impacting us later in August. All the models are horrible with predicting tropical cyclone formation and track until you actually have an organized cyclone develop where you can input data from reconnaissance flights and ship reports.
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Invest 92L is looking more interesting. The GFS gets to about 80W in the Caribbean, the key thing is it keeps it in tact that far west, just two days ago it lost it once it got to about 40W (which it's not far from right now)
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Here's where i think the Invest will go
Not to be a debbie downer on you Alex, but I think that type of track is the least likely to happen eventhough I see the 00z ECMWF shows a track like that much further west and closer to the east coast and that's only because it shows a stronger storm. This invest would have to be a lot stronger than it is so what weakness there is from the CA high can pull it northward in that direction so since it's still relatively weak it should continue to travel along the steering currents westward. The bigger question here is not where it's going, but will it survive getting there? Models still show this invest being killed like pesticide once it's in the Caribbean. (ECMWF kills it once it's in the Bahamas) CMC still wants to keep it going at hr 144 it's in the Bahamas.
EDIT: 6z GFS showed a Hurricane Dean (2007) type track, taking the invest into the Yucatan/Mexico. It also showed a fish storm "Florence" floating around in the the Central Atlantic.
([url]http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2007_charts/at200704.gif[/url])
CODE RED NOW
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
EDIT #2: 12z GFS still aiming for the Yucatan Peninsula as the prime landfall target.
All I have to say is, props to you, Tavores. You hit the nail on the head!
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Thanks Trevor, but I don't think I did anything different from what others were expecting/forecasting. :no:
In the meantime check out this huge, vigorus wave about to emerge into the Atlantic. Looks like a TD already. This is the best one I've seen since the Cape Verde storms have gotten started up. :o
(http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg861/scaled.php?tn=0&server=861&filename=vwnbv.jpg&xsize=640&ysize=640)
EDIT: I'm still waiting this Invest, although it's long term future is somewhat bleak...
1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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***
Hi everyone:
This is just a quick note reminding you all NOT to change the title of a tropical cyclone topic when you post. From what I have seen on the topics for specific storms previously, this is what we have done in the past. When a tropical system has been updgraded from a depression to a storm and/or a storm to a hurricane, then an admin/moderator or the topic's starter may change the name on the first post, thus affecting all the subsequent posts. However, when a storm has been downgraded, please do NOT change the topic title (on your single post or on the first post in the topic) back to storm and/or depression. This is so we can keep track of the strongest intensity the storm reached in its lifecycle.
I hope this made sense. It's a little hard to explain, but since we've done this in previous years, I think most of you know what I'm talking about. Thanks. :)
***
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We should have Gordon soon.
1. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
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I see Gordon taking a similar track as Ernesto, if not a little farther north. Maybe a landfall on the TX/Mexico border. Not completely sure yet. I guess time will tell.
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For Invest 92L
A fairly wide spread, but most still take it in the direction of the Caribbean or the direction of the Bahamas. Only a couple tank it into Central America. A couple look like they are going in the direction of recurving
(http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/650/al922012.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/195/al922012.png/)
Mostly recurves/fish storms from these set of top 10 analogs (NOTE: These will be updating just like the 1st and 3rd maps)
(http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/3410/al922012analogs.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/191/al922012analogs.png/)
Most get this to a least a TD or TS in about 2 days.
(http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/7114/al922012inten.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/827/al922012inten.png/)
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Well, I didn't expect this. Despite increasing signs of El Nino, NOAA revised its season predictions upwards.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/09/noaa-raises-prediction-for-named-storms/?hpt=hp_t1 (http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/09/noaa-raises-prediction-for-named-storms/?hpt=hp_t1)
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120809_atlantic_hurricane_season_update.html (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120809_atlantic_hurricane_season_update.html)
Prediction Revision
12-17 Named Storms
5-8 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes
Orginal Revision
9-15 Named Storms
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
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That's actually not far off from my preliminary prediction of 15 I believe it was. It wasn't an "official" forecast however so here it is below.
My 2012 Hurricane Season Forecast
14 Total storms
6 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes
So far...
6 tropical storms
2 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
EDIT: Wasn't there a developing El Nino during the 2004 Hurricane Season? I would have to take time to check to make sure, but I'm pretty sure there have been seasons that were active/above average with an El Nino developing in the shadows.
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50% Chance of Development
2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA. THE LOW IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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The tropics are about to fire up once again starting with a CV storm about to exit the African Coast in a couple of days. This system specifically looks to be a fish, but something I found interesting from the 12z GFS today is it starts to try to build a ridge back to the west in the Central Atlantic forcing potential "Helene" more WNW towards the East Coast of the US, but then it breaks down and "Helene" recurves avoiding a East Coast Hit.
We still have about 8-10 days to watch and see how this evoles before worrying about this. It's gonna depend largely on how the ridges/troughs work in tandem with eachother once we reach this timeframe. So for now this is all just gossip.
Trackwise, the 12z ECMWF is on par with the 12z GFS with system, but the ECMWF goes more ballistic on strength and blows this up into a 968mb hurricane by day 10 (which obviously takes some credence away from it being that it's so far out)
EDIT: Keep an eye on something homebrewed in the Gulf as well by former Tropical Depression 7, NHC has this area at 40% chance of regeneration. This COULD become "Helene" or "Issac".
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I checked the Falmers Almanac and was surprised to see this (http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather-forecast/northeast-us/)
September 12th-15th. Hurricane threat Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts.
16th-19th. A tropical disturbance dawdles off the coast. Rain, then fair, and cooler
Hurricane Joyce?
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Invest 94L I suspect will be "Isaac" by this time tomorrow or Monday. It's really getting it's act together. :yes:
I believe RECON is planning to investigate the invest tomorrow.
WARNING: THIS IS STILL IN THE FANTASY RANGE 12z GFS today shows this as being a Carolinas hit and basically running parallel right up the East Coast as a strong hurricane similar to Irene (2011) track wise. Last night the Canadian was on team GFS, we'll see if it's the case today and whether or not the Euro joins. There was MAJOR disagreements between the GFS/Euro last night, the 00z Euro decided to keep this invest as an weak storm/open wave traveling through the Caribbean and into the Central Gulf.
On a side note: It can't be me, but I think this invest might be one to reckoned with despite being a long ways off, The US doesn't seem to have the best luck when it comes to "I" named storms. (ex: Isodore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Irene, etc.) Igor (2010) is an exception being it was a major hurricane and remained a fish.
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You know, maybe NOAA upped their named storm predictions for our Atlantic basin because the next one down the line is Isaac and it was around this time last year when Irene formed.. :thinking:
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On a side note: It can't be me, but I think this invest might be one to reckoned with despite being a long ways off, The US doesn't seem to have the best luck when it comes to "I" named storms. (ex: Isodore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Irene, etc.) Igor (2010) is an exception being it was a major hurricane and remained a fish.
And of course I would run across this at another forum. :lol:
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews15_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
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Spending a short amount of time looking over models tonight. Noticing that the Invest 94L appears to track near the East coast of the US, but it's way too early to tell right now. However, if this track did play out, wouldn't be so good for some of us.
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Invest 96L will probably become TD 10 or "Joyce" in a couple of days. Up to 60% (CODE RED) as of the 8am TWO. I don't expect 95L to become nothing more than it is now, I'm surprised it's still a CODE ORANGE.
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Invest 96L will probably become TD 10 or "Joyce" in a couple of days. Up to 60% (CODE RED) as of the 8am TWO. I don't expect 95L to become nothing more than it is now, I'm surprised it's still a CODE ORANGE.
I can't wait to see Invest 96L's model runs.
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We should probably see it as a blessing, but just to note that the Atlantic has not seen a Category 5 hurricane since Felix, which was back in 2007. We'll have to keep watch on things for the rest of the year, but assuming nothing big really blows up, we could go 5 years without a Category 5 hurricane.
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We should probably see it as a blessing, but just to note that the Atlantic has not seen a Category 5 hurricane since Felix, which was back in 2007. We'll have to keep watch on things for the rest of the year, but assuming nothing big really blows up, we could go 5 years without a Category 5 hurricane.
Time sure does fly!
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Haven't been watching this one, but it could be fun (or a headache looking at the models).
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201297_model.gif)
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Could we have Leslie in the next 2 days? 50% Orange Chance
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This year IMO, has become more like last year. Lots of fish storms. Hard to believe Irene struck the Mid-Atlantic last year at this time. Irene was something our area was NOT prepared for
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70% for Leslie
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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Not that it matters much because it's going to be a fish, but here's Invest 99L, it may have a chance at becoming Michael.
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201299_model.gif)
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Here's the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far by the numbers:
Tropical Storms: 13 (Average: 11)
Hurricanes: 7 (Average: 6)
Major Hurricanes: 0 (Average: 2)
This season is officially above average, and we're only halfway done! Micheal may become the first major hurricane, so we may start adding to that last row soon. I don't think any of us expected these results at the halfway point! :blink:
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Here's the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season so far by the numbers:
Tropical Storms: 13 (Average: 11)
Hurricanes: 7 (Average: 6)
Major Hurricanes: 0 (Average: 2)
This season is officially above average, and we're only halfway done! Micheal may become the first major hurricane, so we may start adding to that last row soon. I don't think any of us expected these results at the halfway point! :blink:
Its been an odd year. A lot of relatively small storms. The ACE values so far have been dead low. Around 50 last time I looked. Michael will surely help boost it a bit but its one of the lowest storm to ace ratios that I have seen.
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Its been an odd year. A lot of relatively small storms. The ACE values so far have been dead low. Around 50 last time I looked. Michael will surely help boost it a bit but its one of the lowest storm to ace ratios that I have seen.
ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy if anyone else is wondering) is really the product of duration and intensity as the formula takes the sum of the square of all wind speeds for all active storms every six hours throughout an entire season. The longest-lived storm so far is Isaac, but it only lasted 9.5 days. Most storms this season haven't lasted a week and have been relatively weak. Add in the fact that we have yet to record a major hurricane, and now you see why the ACE is so low.
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Not sure what to make of this one yet... :thinking:
1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH
AND MONDAY.
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201292_model.gif)
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Code RED (60% chance of development) - "O" Storm in the works? :dunno:
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents)
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The invest in the Atlantic is up to 70% now.
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Invest 98L - CODE ORANGE - 50% Chance of Development
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE
LOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.
(http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201298_model.gif)
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Two disturbances to watch...
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.
2. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.
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Wow, it's amazing that we've gone through the entire list this year except for two names. I doubt anyone's forecast (including mine) came close to what happened this year, but then again El Nino was expected to be here by now and it's not, it's virtually in a comatose state.
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Today marks the official end of the 2012 hurricane season. However, NHC is watching a disturbance in the central Atlantic right now. For now, here's the summary for both basins:
It was a really active Atlantic season in terms of named storms, which was way more than expected by anyone. There were 19 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes. However, the wind intensity was lacking as Michael was the only major hurricane with 115 mph winds. This season should be a harsh reminder that even less intense hurricanes and tropical storms can still be very dangerous. Instead of focusing so much on classifications and winds, we should emphasize more the risks any storm poses like storm surge, inland flooding, and severe weather. The name of Sandy will almost certainly be retired by the World Meteorological Organization during the annual meeting on April 8-12, 2013. That storm alone makes up the vast majority of this season's toll of 320 deaths and an estimated $68 billion in damage.
The Eastern Pacific was also fairly active with 17 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes. Unlike the Atlantic, there were five major hurricanes. Emilia reached Category 4 status with 140 mph winds, but the pressure only reached 945 mb. Sandy from the Atlantic basin had the lowest pressure out of both basins with 940 mb, which is yet another reminder of how unique that storm had become. The Eastern Pacific actually pushed ahead of the Atlantic in terms of activity through August, but it seemed to wane by September as the Atlantic basin caught up and passed it. Mexico did suffer a few landfalls and close calls, but it seems the death and destruction was not so terrible with only 8 deaths and about $120 million in damage.
We'll stay open here in case something develops late, but I would expect this thread to close once 2013 arrives. Otherwise, hope you enjoyed the summary, and feel free to share any thoughts or questions!
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I know I am late to replying for this, but that's a really good analysis Patrick. :yes:
I'm surprised we've had three consecutive seasons in a row of such active storms getting named.. despite having a modification in the Saffir-Simpson scale to only factor in wind to categorization in 2010, has the NHC been more ambitious to naming the storms? :dunno:
Also, I have a feeling that Isaac and definitely Sandy are going to be retired. Maybe Debby, since Debby did indeed cause a fatality and it brought some record flooding to west-central Florida.
Overall, I was impressed with this year's Hurricane season. Despite, back in the summer, signs of El Niņo developing (which aren't very much so true right now), the Atlantic had a fairly active season, IMO.
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Since 2012 is over and no further comments or questions have been made here in the past few weeks, I'm closing up this thread. No other tropical activity occurred in December, so the numbers in my summary stand unchanged. Any other discussion can take place in the particular storms of interest. See you next hurricane season!