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Author Topic: Hurricane Central 2012  (Read 26940 times)

Offline TWCmatthew

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #30 on: May 25, 2012, 10:42:28 PM »
Looks like we officially have Tropical Storm Beryl.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #31 on: May 25, 2012, 10:46:10 PM »
Well, Subtropical Storm Beryl actually.

 :offtopic: But I gotta say it, Beryl is such an outdated name.


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Offline Eric

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #32 on: May 25, 2012, 11:52:21 PM »
Tropical depression numbers follow the chronology of all tropical/subtropical systems that have formed.  Therefore, if Beryl had started out as a tropical depression in the NHS's first bulletin, it would have been T.D. #2, since Alberto was the first system, even though its first bulletin already had it as a tropical storm.

phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #33 on: June 07, 2012, 11:56:03 PM »
Everything has gone silent since the early action fizzled.  It is common for a long lull to occur after we get early storms to develop.  We still have to watch though as it only takes one big storm making a huge impact to change the tone of a season completely.

Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #34 on: June 14, 2012, 12:08:37 AM »
Future TS Carlotta looks to hit Mexico within the next few days as a hurricane if forecasts play out. This will be a system to keep an eye on.
Tiddlywinks.

Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #35 on: June 15, 2012, 09:40:07 AM »
Double post, sorry.  :wacko:

Found this interesting - the man who co-founded the Saffir-Simpson scale is turning 100 in November.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/story/2012-06-13/hurricane-simpson/55605488/1
Tiddlywinks.

phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #36 on: June 16, 2012, 03:05:47 PM »
Future TS Carlotta looks to hit Mexico within the next few days as a hurricane if forecasts play out. This will be a system to keep an eye on.
Carlotta made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph, but it had reached a peak of 105 mph a few hours before it hit Mexico.  Two children are dead due to mudslides.

Offline gt1racerlHDl

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #37 on: June 16, 2012, 04:56:48 PM »
Has anyone seen the West Pacific?

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #38 on: June 17, 2012, 07:01:01 PM »
Looking at global models, it appears we might have a chance of a "Chris" on the horizon by this time next weekend/work week after that. The areas that could be affect would be from TX to MS as far as landfall. I'll provide more details either later this evening or tomorrow and then thoughout the week if it keeps showing up. ;)


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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #39 on: June 19, 2012, 09:26:03 AM »
This hasn't been mentioned yet....





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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #40 on: June 19, 2012, 10:25:50 PM »
Just a quick writeup I did on the tropical disturbance heading into the GOM. I left some tings out so this wouldn't be too long. I also broke it down into 3 categories.  :)

Debby to Make A Debut In the Gulf Soon?
Tuesday, June 19, 2012 10:00pm ET


FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CURRENTLY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN CUBA WHERE
THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS.

WIND SHEAR...AS OF TODAY, WIND SHEAR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 50 KTS WHICH GREATLY REDUCES LITTLE IF ANY ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST. WIND SHEAR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN VERY HOSTILE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, NORTHWESTERN CUBA, AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS REGION.

SEA SURFACE TEMPS...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF, TEMPS ARE RUNNING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80s EVENTHOUGH WE ARE ONLY 19 DAYS INTO HURRICANE SEASON. THIS IS WELL THAN ENOUGH FUEL FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO FEED OFF OF, BUT WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF WIND SHEAR NOT BEING FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT TERM, SST WILL DO VERY LITTLE IN GETTING THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZED WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION.

RAIN/FLOODING PROSPECTS...WHETHER WE HAVE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, A TROPICAL STORM DEBBY, OR JUST AN OPEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS EARLY AS TOMORROW. OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 4 INCHES COULD OCCUR FROM A LINE OF FORT MYERS TO FORT PIERCE, FL SOUTHWARD. AN ISOLATED AREA OF 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. NORTH OF FORT PIERCE TO FT MYERS TO A TAMPA TO ORLANDO LINE CAN EXPECT TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 2 INCHES, A TRACE TO 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM JACKSONVILLE SOUTH TO THE TAMPA/ORLANDO LINE ACCORDING TO THE HPC. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AREAS SUCH AS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA COULD SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON QUICKLY DISSIPATING IN IN THE EVENING. IF YOU LIVE IN A LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREA PLEASE TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY AND IF YOU'RE DRIVING AND OBSERVE FLOODED ROADWAYS, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

SUMMARY...OVERALL, I DO NOT EXPECT THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO TRANSFORM INTO A TROPICAL STORM DEBBY GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. I GIVE THIS DISTURBANCE A 20% CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS AND A NEAR 0% CHANCE OF BECOMING DEBBY OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE GOOD NEWS IS I EXPECT FLORIDA, PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME WELCOME, APPRECIATED RAINFALL OVER THE DURATION OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


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Offline Eric

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #41 on: June 19, 2012, 10:52:11 PM »
One wonders whether this will have the opportunity to actually develop into a tropical system, or whether this will be like last October's not-quite-tropical storm that still caused a lot of problems.  Either way, there's going to be a whole lot of wet.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #42 on: June 20, 2012, 08:26:55 PM »
"Debby" is looking more likely to develop over the weekend into early next week. The 12z Euro and the 12z Canadian was the most agressive today. The Euro showed a 988mb system which could translate to a strong tropical storm to borderline Category 1 Hurricane hitting the West Coast of Florida by midweek next week. The Canadian however showed a system of similar strength (986mb), but this is where they differ, the Canadian takes the system towards extreme Southern Texas/Mexico. The 12z GFS was more in line with the Euro, but it showed a weaker storm (996mb). The NHC has increased chance of development within the next 48hrs up to 30% medium chance as of 8pm ET tonight. Basically anyone living from Texas to Florida should be on guard for tropical development over the next few days. :yes:

My predictions
Chance of Depression (within 96 hours) - 70%
Chance of Tropical Storm Status (within 96 hours) - 40%
Chance of Hurricane Status (within 96 hours) - 20%




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Offline Eric

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #43 on: June 20, 2012, 09:29:36 PM »
The extended forecast screen for Daytona Beach already has a red box drawn around Saturday with the expectation of "heavy rain."

Offline Stephen

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #44 on: June 20, 2012, 09:39:33 PM »
I hope this doesn't come our way. The last thing we need here is more rain after the massive flooding mess we got just a couple of weeks ago.  :o