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Author Topic: Hurricane Central 2012  (Read 27032 times)

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #135 on: October 01, 2012, 08:11:02 PM »
Code RED (60% chance of development) - "O" Storm in the works? :dunno:

Quote
1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents


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phw115wvwx

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #136 on: October 02, 2012, 01:33:31 PM »
The invest in the Atlantic is up to 70% now.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #137 on: October 11, 2012, 11:59:06 AM »
Invest 98L - CODE ORANGE - 50% Chance of Development
Quote
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE
LOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.



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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #138 on: October 21, 2012, 10:52:04 AM »
Two disturbances to watch...

Quote
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.  HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

Quote
2. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.


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Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #139 on: October 24, 2012, 08:51:23 AM »
Wow, it's amazing that we've gone through the entire list this year except for two names. I doubt anyone's forecast (including mine) came close to what happened this year, but then again El Nino was expected to be here by now and it's not, it's virtually in a comatose state.


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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #140 on: December 01, 2012, 02:03:54 AM »
Today marks the official end of the 2012 hurricane season.  However, NHC is watching a disturbance in the central Atlantic right now.  For now, here's the summary for both basins:

It was a really active Atlantic season in terms of named storms, which was way more than expected by anyone.  There were 19 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.  However, the wind intensity was lacking as Michael was the only major hurricane with 115 mph winds.  This season should be a harsh reminder that even less intense hurricanes and tropical storms can still be very dangerous.  Instead of focusing so much on classifications and winds, we should emphasize more the risks any storm poses like storm surge, inland flooding, and severe weather.  The name of Sandy will almost certainly be retired by the World Meteorological Organization during the annual meeting on April 8-12, 2013.  That storm alone makes up the vast majority of this season's toll of 320 deaths and an estimated $68 billion in damage.

The Eastern Pacific was also fairly active with 17 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.  Unlike the Atlantic, there were five major hurricanes.  Emilia reached Category 4 status with 140 mph winds, but the pressure only reached 945 mb.  Sandy from the Atlantic basin had the lowest pressure out of both basins with 940 mb, which is yet another reminder of how unique that storm had become.  The Eastern Pacific actually pushed ahead of the Atlantic in terms of activity through August, but it seemed to wane by September as the Atlantic basin caught up and passed it.  Mexico did suffer a few landfalls and close calls, but it seems the death and destruction was not so terrible with only 8 deaths and about $120 million in damage.

We'll stay open here in case something develops late, but I would expect this thread to close once 2013 arrives.  Otherwise, hope you enjoyed the summary, and feel free to share any thoughts or questions! 

Offline Zach

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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #141 on: December 10, 2012, 05:03:00 PM »
I know I am late to replying for this, but that's a really good analysis Patrick. :yes:

I'm surprised we've had three consecutive seasons in a row of such active storms getting named.. despite having a modification in the Saffir-Simpson scale to only factor in wind to categorization in 2010, has the NHC been more ambitious to naming the storms? :dunno:

Also, I have a feeling that Isaac and definitely Sandy are going to be retired. Maybe Debby, since Debby did indeed cause a fatality and it brought some record flooding to west-central Florida.

Overall, I was impressed with this year's Hurricane season. Despite, back in the summer, signs of El Niņo developing (which aren't very much so true right now), the Atlantic had a fairly active season, IMO.
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Re: Hurricane Central 2012
« Reply #142 on: January 08, 2013, 01:28:07 PM »
Since 2012 is over and no further comments or questions have been made here in the past few weeks, I'm closing up this thread.  No other tropical activity occurred in December, so the numbers in my summary stand unchanged.  Any other discussion can take place in the particular storms of interest.  See you next hurricane season!