TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: UC Davis Meteorologist on May 20, 2010, 02:29:17 PM
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Note to Moderator: Please pin this!
Because of the delay, of the NHC forecast predictions of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane forecasts, I decided to make an offical thread where you guys can discuss/post tropical activity updates mainly in the Atlantic and Pacific.
**************WELCOME TO THE OFFICAL HURRICANE THREAD ON TWC TODAY******************
Without further ado, I will take the liberty to post the Atlantic and Pacific Names that will be used this year,
Atlantic
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
Pacific
Agatha
Blas
Celia
Darby
Estelle
Frank
Georgette
Howard
Isis
Javier
Kay
Lester
Madeline
Newton
Orlene
Paine
Roslyn
Seymour
Tina
Virgil
Winifred
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke
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This thread is only going to be used for general discussion about the 2010 hurricane season. We'll do individual topics for each storm as mentioned in Martin's post about the new system here.
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This thread is only going to be used for general discussion about the 2010 hurricane season. We'll do individual topics for each storm as mentioned in Martin's post about the new system here.
Yes. Any organized storms or potential ones will have their own discussion. Including: Invests, subtropical storms, tropical storms and of course hurricanes.
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This thread is only going to be used for general discussion about the 2010 hurricane season. We'll do individual topics for each storm as mentioned in Martin's post about the new system here.
Yes. Any organized storms or potential ones will have their own discussion. Including: Invests, subtropical storms, tropical storms and of course hurricanes.
Sorry for a slight bumpb, but is this something new? :dunno: I thought we always talked about storms in the general "Hurricane Central" thread. :unsure:
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Sorry for a slight bumpb, but is this something new? :dunno: I thought we always talked about storms in the general "Hurricane Central" thread. :unsure:
Its sort of why I created this subforum. I thought it would be fun to try something new and more organized! If it doesn't work out we can go back to the way it always was
https://twctodayforums.com/forums/hurricane-central/new-system-for-2010/ (https://twctodayforums.com/forums/hurricane-central/new-system-for-2010/)
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Small disturbance coming off Africa.
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Small disturbance coming off Africa.
ALREADY?! Geez, that's really early! :unsure:
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Small disturbance coming off Africa.
ALREADY?! Geez, that's really early! :unsure:
Why is that so shocking to you? I thought June was the start of hurricane season. :huh:
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Small disturbance coming off Africa.
ALREADY?! Geez, that's really early! :unsure:
Why is that so shocking to you? I thought June was the start of hurricane season. :huh:
Because it's unusual for tropical waves to be coming off the coast of Africa in June, it's more typical from mid July onward.
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Keep in mind of the 05 and 03 hurricane seasons.
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Keep in mind of the 05 and 03 hurricane seasons.
Just because it happened before doesn't mean it's not quite unusual.
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Record SSTs in the area off the African coast with not too much shear. Juicy area for development.
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I think dust has hindered it's development temporarily while coming off the W. African coast, but it might be heading into more favorable area since the dust is not that big of a deal that far out.
(http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg)
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Record SSTs in the area off the African coast with not too much shear. Juicy area for development.
I saw that the water temps were around 90°. That's a bit toasty!
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(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/pt_BR/tropical/trop_june_dot_720x486.jpg)
If this disturbance develops soon, it'll be in a relatively unusual area. Also, I don't think it looks as well as it did yesterday.
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Could we be seeing Alex around the 21st of this month? Way too far out to say for sure, but it's worth noting.
06z GFS computer model run
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp12384.gif)
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Could we be seeing Alex around the 21st of this month? Way too far out to say for sure, but it's worth noting.
06z GFS computer model run
The pressure seems a bit high for it to be Alex, but it definitely looks formidable! :D (Who knows? It might be TS Alex in the Gulf and weaken to TD Alex by that image.)
EDIT: After looking at the GFS wind models, the winds on the outside of the storm will be around 25 knots. That makes me think the inner winds will be 30 to maybe 50 knots. If we go above 40, we have Alex. Really doesn't look that greatly organized, though.
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Your right, it doesn't look very impressive except for the QPFs which increased on the 18z run, but the low is weaker and it's 2 days faster.
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12324.gif)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12336.gif)
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GFS goes into fantasy land about 300hrs out :P Ill wait a bit
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GFS goes into fantasy land about 300hrs out :P Ill wait a bit
LOL! Well said!! :rofl2:
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Most models do a terrible job at depicting the initiation of tropical systems. You'll be lucky if you see something verify even just 3 days out.
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GFS goes into fantasy land about 300hrs out :P Ill wait a bit
:rofl2: :rofl2: :rofl2:
For winter storms, it seems it falls into fantasy land about 100 hours out. :P
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Couple little areas to watch. Few waves rolling off the African coast. Little disturbance in the central Atlantic as well http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html)
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ABNT20 KNHC 122338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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ABNT20 KNHC 122338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
I went on the NHC's website, that one looks fairly healthy. It might mean some serious business if it can get more organized. Dry air is no problem and wind shear isn't too bad.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=92L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=92L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0)
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Sorry for double posting, but I saw another map from the link of the site I posted of wind shear over the next 24 hrs. Wind Shear should be fairly light and decreasing in a lot of areas in it's WNW path. We might actually get our first named storm of the season.
(http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF)
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Here's an update on our Invest 92
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl1.gif)
1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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GFS in fantasy land range has something trying to remain organized
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I can't wait for our first storm (even if this isn't it)! :biggrin: When is the average time that the first "system" (TS or hurricane) usually forms? :unsure:
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I can't wait for our first storm (even if this isn't it)! :biggrin: When is the average time that the first "system" (TS or hurricane) usually forms? :unsure:
The first named storm forms on July 9 according to Atlantic hurricane season climatology from 1966-2009. I'll put up a link for climatology section of NHC in the Important Links thread.
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:pimp:
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More models sniffing out something. Could be interesting to watch
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0z ECM shows a storm approaching the Gulf Coast around July 1st w/ a pressure of 950mb! IIRC that's a strong Cat. 3 borderline weak Cat. 4 :blink:
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0z ECM shows a storm approaching the Gulf Coast around July 1st w/ a pressure of 950mb! IIRC that's a strong Cat. 3 borderline weak Cat. 4 :blink:
The two "fantasyland" wind speed models that are even looking at this storm are showing it developing into at least a strong category 2 hurricane within 108 hours. This could be a really nice storm...tropical season is coming in with a bang, I guess? :P
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0z ECM shows a storm approaching the Gulf Coast around July 1st w/ a pressure of 950mb! IIRC that's a strong Cat. 3 borderline weak Cat. 4 :blink:
The two "fantasyland" wind speed models that are even looking at this storm are showing it developing into at least a strong category 2 hurricane within 108 hours. This could be a really nice storm...tropical season is coming in with a bang, I guess? :P
NHC just upped Invest93L to code orange (30%) It looks like it's getting healthier.
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif)
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl1.gif)
. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Good posts :) Just FYI when a storm gets a classification ie. 92L, etc. You are welcome to start a new thread
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Good posts :) Just FYI when a storm gets a classification ie. 92L, etc. You are welcome to start a new thread
If the Invest gets upgraded to a tropical storm, do we just change the thread title or start a new one?
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Good posts :) Just FYI when a storm gets a classification ie. 92L, etc. You are welcome to start a new thread
If the Invest gets upgraded to a tropical storm, do we just change the thread title or start a new one?
Just change the title :yes:
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Things getting busy!
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Wow...maybe this WILL be an active hurricane season. :blink: It looks like the one in the western Carribbean may develop first (if it can). :yes:
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Things getting busy!
Looking very busy. We'll see how all this plays out.
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Healthy wave coming off of Africa. Just far enough south not to be affected by the SAL
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It's been a rather quiet July to this point. El Niņo is officially over according to the recent data from the Climate Prediction Center, so it seems that the Atlantic should get a boost on favorable conditions as this season progresses.
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It's been a rather quiet July to this point. El Niņo is officially over according to the recent data from the Climate Prediction Center, so it seems that the Atlantic should get a boost on favorable conditions as this season progresses.
And it looks as if this is exactly the case. In another thread, someone mentioned there are 4 areas that are being watched for tropical development.
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Haha, the 12z GFS wants Savannah,GA to get with a Cat 1 hurricane between the 28th - 30th this month. :lol: This would make the Farmer's Almanac accurate about their prediction of a hurricane threat within the latter part of this month. I love that the models are showing these hurricane possibilities it's really getting me pumped up!
16th-19th. Thunderstorms Tennessee east to Carolinas, then clearing.
20th-23rd. Scattered thunderstorms.
24th-27th. Hurricane threat.
28th-31st. Scattered thunderstorms.
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather-forecast/southeast-us/ (http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather-forecast/southeast-us/)
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Well, I know that people really don't want hurricanes, and this is a pretty stupid wish, but I really hope the season starts getting active now and we see some strong hurricanes soon. It's really fun to watch where they are going to go, and even though TWC will have a huge fit over any hurricane of any strength, I'm getting a little tired of these small, short-lasting storms during a "hurricane season that is supposed to be as active as 2005." Wouldn't that really be something if these predictions were totally off. :wacko: But I know we are now just reaching the "peak" of hurricane season, so hopefully we'll get some activity soon! :D
Thanks for providing the models, Tavores...they look really interesting. :thumbsup:
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Well, I know that people really don't want hurricanes, and this is a pretty stupid wish, but I really hope the season starts getting active now and we see some strong hurricanes soon. It's really fun to watch where they are going to go, and even though TWC will have a huge fit over any hurricane of any strength, I'm getting a little tired of these small, short-lasting storms during a "hurricane season that is supposed to be as active as 2005." Wouldn't that really be something if these predictions were totally off. :wacko: But I know we are now just reaching the "peak" of hurricane season, so hopefully we'll get some activity soon! :D
Thanks for providing the models, Tavores...they look really interesting. :thumbsup:
You're welcome and I agree, I don't want any of those things either. I just want something to form so there can be something to track worthwhile. Also the 18z run of that model I posted has a completely different track (which I knew was gonna be the case this far out anyway) has the same hurricane only stronger at 974mb IIRC would be major hurricane strength scrapping by New England.
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Things starting to ramp up...finally. Danielle and now potentially Earl in play.
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GFS is exploding
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GFS is exploding
What's GFS? :blink:
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It's a type of hurricane model
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp)
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What's GFS? :blink:
It stands for Global Forecast System, and it's one of the most useful numerical weather prediction models out there.
It's a type of hurricane model
No, it was actually designed to be a mid-latitude synoptic-scale model. It wasn't originally meant for the tropics or polar regions, but they expanded it to cover the globe. You have to be a little wary when using it in the tropics as it doesn't have all the physics packages put in specifically for there.
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GFS is usually most useful for tracking noreasters/severe weather events.
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No, it was actually designed to be a mid-latitude synoptic-scale model. It wasn't originally meant for the tropics or polar regions, but they expanded it to cover the globe. You have to be a little wary when using it in the tropics as it doesn't have all the physics packages put in specifically for there.
Its a crappy model for the tropics but when you start getting a number of large storms on its runs, its a sign things are improving for tropical development. If you ever need a laugh look at the GFS past 100hr or so :P
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The 2010 Atlantic season may seem like a dud to most people in the United States, but it's officially an above normal season already despite that we still have over two months to go. We've had 11 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes to this point, which is exactly at the normal climatology values. We're only supposed to have 2 major hurricanes in a normal season, but we've already had 5 so far. What's really impressive is that 4 of those 5 major hurricanes reached Category 4 intensity. That's not a ratio you see too often. :blink:
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I think the very slow start combined with the promise of a busy year is what got people confused. Even I was becoming rather sceptical. However, the past month or so has been absolutely madcap in the Atlantic, and there's yet another wave coming off the coast of Africa...
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The "activity" level of Hurricane Season seems so hard to describe. :thinking: Some people might say "Oh yeah, I told you so...the 2010 Hurricane Season has been very active" because there have been so many hurricanes while others state that since no major hurricanes have made a direct hit on the US, the season hasn't been "active."
What I think we can't do is compare this Hurricane Season to that of 2005 (yet, anyways) like people were doing at the start. :no:
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The 2010 Atlantic season may seem like a dud to most people in the United States, but it's officially an above normal season already despite that we still have over two months to go. We've had 11 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes to this point, which is exactly at the normal climatology values. We're only supposed to have 2 major hurricanes in a normal season, but we've already had 5 so far. What's really impressive is that 4 of those 5 major hurricanes reached Category 4 intensity.
Seems there's a tendency by the general public to judge a tropical season by the number of landfalls. A busy season doesn't equate landfalls nor does a slow season mean no major impact. So far this year, the coastal U.S. has been spared. One of the slow seasons (1992) delivered one of the most memorable and expensive hurricanes on record: Andrew.
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The guys over at AccuWeather are saying into October the storms should shift farther west..
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Although in fantasyland, Tampa, it could happen on October 5, 2010 with a possible Cat 3/4 hurricane. :fear:
Tuesday Afternoon, October 5, 2010 (956 mb)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12348.gif)
Tuesday Night, October 5, 2010 (960 mb)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12360.gif)
Wednesday Morning, October 6, 2010 (968 mb)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12372.gif)
Wednesday Afternoon, October 6, 2010 (981 mb)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12384.gif)
As a bonus, what I believe will be "Matthew" here is hell of a big storm in it's peak strength. :blink: :wacko:
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12336.gif)
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Although in fantasyland, Tampa, it could happen on October 5, 2010 with a possible Cat 3/4 hurricane. :fear:
Thats 95L if it ever develops. I believe the GFS is full of BS
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Although in fantasyland, Tampa, it could happen on October 5, 2010 with a possible Cat 3/4 hurricane. :fear:
Thats 95L if it ever develops. I believe the GFS is full of BS
I don't think that's true, GFS has been doing a good job at sniffing out storms in the long range, it's just the track and intensity that's usually BS. :P Also 18z run still is showing a FL hit near Tampa, but weaker around 975mb
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12312.gif)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12324.gif)
(http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12348.gif)
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Just a quick update on the hurricane season, for September 21st.
Hurricane Igor has become post-tropical, according to the National Hurricane Center. Even then, it is packing winds of 80 mph as moves towards Greenland, NNE at 39 mph. Wind speeds are expected to be hurricane force throughout the next 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Lisa is slightly strenghtening west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving N at 2 mph. Sustained wind speeds are 45 mph, and are expected to increase to hurricane strength within the next 36 to 48 hours. Lisa should continue tracking north until it hits what I can only guess is the ITCZ, at which point it will track steadely westward. Although not a threat to the U.S. at the moment, this system should be continously monitored.
And finally, Tropical Depression Georgette is still impacted Baja California, with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph. The storm is still tracking due north at 10 mph. Arizona may get some well-needed rain from this system. I haven't heard any reports from Baja Califonia yet. Have any of you guys?
Finally, there is a disturbance in the caribbean that deserves some serious attention. A group of slightly organized thunderstorms are slowly moving west-northwestward and have been given a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. If it does form, we can welcome Tropical Storm Matthew to the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
So far this year, we have had 12 named storms, 6 of which have become hurricanes, 5 of which have attained major hurricane status at some point in their lifespans. Percentage wise, this means 83% of all hurricanes this year have attained major status. If I am wrong, please let me know.
I'll try to post an update sometime Thursday, if it is okay with the administrators.
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AFD MLB Florida
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
LIFT IT NORTH ACROSS CUBA MID TO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO EASTERN
U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IS REGENERATION OF TC MATTHEW OR A SEPARATE SYSTEM (NICOLE?).
SYSTEMS CAN BE SLOWER COMING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN THAN MODELS
EXPECT SO HPC BRINGS THIS CYCLONE ONLY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE... AT THAT TIME...GFS HAS IT JUST OFF
THE SW FL COAST AND THE ECMWF IS JUST OFF THE SE FL COAST...BOTH
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THIS FEATURE SINCE IT MAY NOT EXIST YET SO CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST.
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Recon
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.
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What do you think... will Tomas be the last named storm in the Atlantic this year?
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How did I know someone was bound to make this topic? :P
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I'll guess no. Remember T.S. Zeta in late December-early January 2005/2006? Another storm may or may not happen but it's been a busy year.
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I think there will be one more before it's over. Everyone seems to forget that November 30 is the end of the season, and that date has been broken several times. For the Atlantic during 1851-present, at least one tropical storm has existed in every month of the year, and at least one hurricane has existed in every month except April.
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This would have been more appropriate in the general tropical discussion thread.
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This would have been more appropriate in the general tropical discussion thread.
But now it's confusing because there's a poll in the thread. :blink: :wacko:
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This would have been more appropriate in the general tropical discussion thread.
But now it's confusing because there's a poll in the thread. :blink: :wacko:
I've removed the poll and changed the subject titles so that everything is now fully merged. Anyone can continue the discussion about if this season is finally over here.
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This would have been more appropriate in the general tropical discussion thread.
But now it's confusing because there's a poll in the thread. :blink: :wacko:
I've removed the poll and changed the subject titles so that everything is now fully merged. Anyone can continue the discussion about if this season is finally over here.
And the purpose of this exercise was...? If I'm not meant to make polls, then please just tell me. I made a poll, it got moved, people didn't like the move, and now it's gone. I'm entitled to be a little unhappy.
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And the purpose of this exercise was...? If I'm not meant to make polls, then please just tell me. I made a poll, it got moved, people didn't like the move, and now it's gone. I'm entitled to be a little unhappy.
You're welcome to do polls in their own topics. Unfortunately, Martin thought your topic didn't really belong by itself. Once your topic got merged into this general thread, the poll became out of place and confused other members. Sorry about the issues. :hmm: I'm going to talk to Martin about figuring out what to do here.
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Oh dear. I just thought it would have fit in the general discussion better. I mean you could make a topic for every storm about "Will X storm be the last? " I didn't mean to upset anyone.
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It's looking like we're just about done for this season. Nothing has really formed since Tomas dissipated. A full summary will be provided if we reach December 1 with no changes.
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Looks like my since-banished poll was accurate. :biggrin:
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As promised, here is my full summary now that the hurricane season is long over. Some of the information I gathered from various sources like NHC, AccuWeather, and Wikipedia will really surprise you:
The predictions of La Niņa creating an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season all came true. Amazingly, not one single hurricane made landfall over the United States this season. Just two tropical storms directly struck the coastline, Bonnie and Hermine. Since 1900, there had never been a season that featured at least 10 hurricanes where zero of them made landfall over the United States until this one. Stop and think about that factoid for a moment, and realize that we're going to pay in the coming years for being so lucky. In terms of activity, I'm expecting all indicators to place this season in the top five.
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
19 Tropical Storms (tied for 3rd most with 1887 and 1995)
12 Hurricanes (tied for 2nd most with 1887 and 1969)
5 Major Hurricanes
Meanwhile, La Niņa made conditions very unfavorable over the Eastern Pacific, and new records were established for lack of activity this season. The last storm dissipated on September 23, which set a new record for the earliest date ever that this basin had ended any activity during a season. It also set new record lows for the number of tropical storms and hurricanes. It just amazes me how negatively correlated the Eastern Pacific is to the Atlantic. When one is very active, the other is practically dead quiet.
2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season:
7 Tropical Storms (fewest ever recorded)
3 Hurricanes (fewest ever recorded)
2 Major Hurricanes
Feel free to comment or ask questions about anything before we shut down this topic for good! B)
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Nice, very detailed! This was a very active and interesting season although we dodged almost all of them, which caused this to make the record books. I was also amazed at how large Igor became (the largest recorded in Atlantic basin). Is this being shut down 1/1/11?
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Nice, very detailed! This was a very active and interesting season although we dodged almost all of them, which caused this to make the record books. I was also amazed at how large Igor became (the largest recorded in Atlantic basin). Is this being shut down 1/1/11?
Thanks, Mike! That date sounds about right, but Martin and I will also consider the activity of this thread before closing it down.
Update: It's been months since anyone has touched this thread, so I've locked it for good. See you next season!