TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Hurricane Central => Topic started by: TWCToday on February 28, 2010, 05:11:19 PM
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Too early to say for sure but some indications show the current El Nino might weaken or fade away allowing for an improved tropical season.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-04/el-nino-may-fade-removing-block-to-an-active-hurricane-season.html (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-04/el-nino-may-fade-removing-block-to-an-active-hurricane-season.html)
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The El Nino weakening sounds like good news but a stronger Hurricane Season doesn't. We'll just have to see how this works out.
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The El Nino weakening sounds like good news but a stronger Hurricane Season doesn't. We'll just have to see how this works out.
Last season was just bleh. Upper level winds killed everything.
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It's very typical for El Niņo conditions to subside later in the year following its emergence. If it starts to go more neutral or even push over to La Niņa later this summer, I will definitely start sounding alarms about this upcoming hurricane season. I'm more concerned that the last hurricane season being so weak gave everyone a false sense of security, which means that even an average hurricane could pose problems ahead.
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Well what's interesting is that with the last El Nino, it did weaken mid-winter in January 2007. We then ended up having a La Nina come the 2007-2008 winter. 2007 was no more active than 2009 (in the sense that there were not a lot of strong US landfalls), even though it did have a few more storms.
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Hmm, I had actually heard it might be getting stronger by this summer. :unsure:
Anyways, it never hit me until now, but I just realized two of the most active hurricane seasons happened during El Nino years (2004 & 2005).
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Hmm, I had actually heard it might be getting stronger by this summer. :unsure:
Anyways, it never hit me until now, but I just realized two of the most active hurricane seasons happened during El Nino years (2004 & 2005).
I haven't seen anything yet from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicating that it will strengthen later this year, but I'll certainly watch for updates. :yes: Some other factors caused the 2004 season to be active despite the intensifying El Niņo conditions. 2005 was even more active as El Niņo actually ended midway through the season according to the data on CPC. There was a slight La Niņa at the end of the season. Obviously, El Niņo and La Niņa aren't the only factors in Atlantic hurricane activity.
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Certainly not the only factors but a contributing factor certainly as you said.
This is interesting to note
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif)
February had the warmest SST on record