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Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Mr. Rainman on October 05, 2011, 01:23:32 PM

Title: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on October 05, 2011, 01:23:32 PM
It's only the first week of October, but after seeing the first Winter Storm Warnings of the winter season across the Sierra Nevada and parts of the Rockies, I figured this thread should be opened up. Any winter storm coming around that you think should be mentioned? Post about it here!

I'm personally hoping for an active winter, although not near as active as last year. The fact that La Nina is back in play suggests that, once again, New England and the Northern Plains could be facing a rough one. The Southeast may get to see some snow too, depending on the overall weather pattern.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Eric on October 05, 2011, 01:46:04 PM
Oh, geez... New England suffered enough last winter!  Between the middle of December and February 8th (I believe), eastern Massachusetts had steady snow (more than just flurries or a passing snow shower) once every two or three days without exception.

Believe it or not, the total snowfall accumulations weren't even close to the all-time records.  There were a couple of big storms, but the majority of the snow came with just a few inches here and a few inches there - enough to create aggravation by requiring the plows to run practically every day for two months and adding to the snowbanks - but not enough to break records.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on October 24, 2011, 04:29:55 PM
Looks like Denver is going to get some respectable snow totals tomorrow or Wednesday...and HPC is a bit bullish on a prediction of accumulating snowfall in Pennsylvania and New York by Friday.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on October 27, 2011, 02:59:30 PM
Nor'easter may be in the cards saturday in MA and all of New England. even maybe snow in SE Mass :o
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on October 27, 2011, 03:07:04 PM
I guess Jim jinxed it, the other night he said he didn't buy into the EURO model showing a Nor'Easter.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCCraig on October 27, 2011, 04:17:20 PM
I think it's possible:
(http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg231/scaled.php?server=231&filename=2011102712eusgfssfcslpt.gif&res=medium)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on October 27, 2011, 06:30:10 PM
Weather.com does have a good article explaining the uncertainties of snowfall and accumulating snowfall in this article.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/weekend-storm-wet-snow_2011-10-26 (http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/weekend-storm-wet-snow_2011-10-26)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on October 27, 2011, 07:27:59 PM
Is places like Albany, NY reporting snow accumulations? Going by the radar it's been snowing in Upstate NY for a while now.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Localonthe8s on October 27, 2011, 07:30:34 PM
We;re supposed to get snow from late tonight to Satruday. High of 43 and low of 30. Right now it;'s close to 40. It's way too cold for this.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: WeatherWitness on October 27, 2011, 09:16:15 PM
Well, before we talk about the Northeast, we need to talk about Texas! Amarillo (in the panhandle) saw 2.5 inches of snow today!!! That's a record for any one calendar day. And winter's still under a couple of months away! :o
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on October 28, 2011, 09:57:46 PM
TWC's prediction on potential power outages in the NE this weekend
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews09_ltst_4namus_enus_600x338.jpg)

I apologize for this in advance, but seriously, WTF?! :huh: :wacko: I'm just gonna jump on a large limb and say you guys in the Northeast better buckle up your seatbelts, you're in for a wild and bumpy Winter.
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews10_ltst_4namus_enus_600x338.jpg)

If this happens, I'm rating this storm 5 Brrrs  :brr: :brr: :brr: :brr: :brr:

I gotta give props to the GFS model, eventhough it lost this storm for a while, it was the first to sniff it out nearly two weeks ago.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: phw115wvwx on October 29, 2011, 12:48:44 PM
It's going to be a cold and snowy start as expected for a La Niña winter, but this start is pushing it to the extreme.  I can only imagine what the Northeast is thinking right now as they see a major winter storm in October.  It might be something like this promo some of you all may remember:

No place on Earth has better weather - promo (Snowstorm 4of4+) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2mlTq_L0to#)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on October 29, 2011, 01:03:38 PM
LOL Jim does it again! He had thundersnow during a live shot earlier today.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: WeatherWitness on October 29, 2011, 01:45:51 PM
LOL Jim does it again! He had thundersnow during a live shot earlier today.

WOW! :o Please post a video; hopefully he didn't curse if this one was a live shot. :P
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on October 29, 2011, 03:01:32 PM
LOL Jim does it again! He had thundersnow during a live shot earlier today.

WOW! :o Please post a video; hopefully he didn't curse if this one was a live shot. :P

No, he didn't almost curse this time around, but he was in the middle of a phone interview while doing the live shot. The clip attached is pre-recorded from the time it happened around 12:33pm
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Donovan on October 29, 2011, 07:42:06 PM
Boston CC: Rain Snow Fog/Mist and Breezy
This is the first time I've seen this many wx conditions put together.... Congrats, the snow has started for you Boston on the West side.
37 °F
(3 °C)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: seminolefanboy on October 29, 2011, 09:15:31 PM
Is places like Albany, NY reporting snow accumulations? Going by the radar it's been snowing in Upstate NY for a while now.

I just searched the NWS website for this, as I live about an hour away from Albany. Looks like they've gotten about 2 inches so far as of now.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on October 29, 2011, 10:24:52 PM
Right now Providence is all Snow, Fall River is probably 10 miles west from the Rain/Snow line.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on December 03, 2011, 11:43:23 PM
Looks like Winter is coming early?

http://5state.blogspot.com/b/post-preview?token=wxG6CDQBAAA.a7ICYyytT9sKCyx7156dBQ.TzhRouvCGv91uBKOvB27Yw&postId=4301509397265412440&type=POST (http://5state.blogspot.com/b/post-preview?token=wxG6CDQBAAA.a7ICYyytT9sKCyx7156dBQ.TzhRouvCGv91uBKOvB27Yw&postId=4301509397265412440&type=POST)

According to 5 State Weather

Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 06, 2011, 08:33:37 PM
Looks like Winter Wx Advisories have been issued for SW TN into Northern MS for snow that will be developing overnight tonight. It's deja vu all over again.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCCraig on December 06, 2011, 08:49:13 PM
Most weather forecasts I looked at tonight from TWC and NWS have said no snow for me. Typical...  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 06, 2011, 09:15:55 PM
Shreveport, LA is already reporting light snow.  :o

06   18:56   W 8   3.00    Light Snow Fog/Mist   SCT006 BKN020 OVC031   34   33         30.24   1023.9   0.02   

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSHV.html (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSHV.html)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on December 06, 2011, 09:43:35 PM
Looks like a Nor'Easter will begin to affect New England over the next 48 hours as a Hatteras Low begins its track along the Eastern Seaboard. Doesn't look like anything too major, but a few areas could get 8 inches. Coastal regions look to see just rain and possibly a light mix.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_composite.gif (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_composite.gif)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 06, 2011, 10:53:57 PM
Another shocker, this time from my NWS office.

Quote
.UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES. BIG QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
FRONT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH. NAM AND GFS MORE GUNG-HO
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...BRINGING MODEL ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. SREF MORE RESERVED WITH BEST SNOW
CHANCES AFTER 21Z WED AND ONLY ACROSS NE AL AND THE TN-GA BORDER.

BUFFER SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD AIR MORE
PROMINENT IN THE CHATTANOOGA AREA...AND NOT INDICATIVE OF SNOWY
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE
THE THING TO WATCH. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE AREA BEFORE WE SEE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. HAVE OPTED TO WAIT
ON UPDATING THE FORECAST FOR SNOW OR RAIN-SNOW POSSIBILITY...AND
ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO FURTHER INVESTIGATE THE MODEL DATA AND
MAKE THE CALL.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Trevor on December 07, 2011, 07:35:01 AM
Check out my live WeatherCam (second one from Southaven, MS). We have 1" of snow! http://www.stormchasetn.com/weathercams (http://www.stormchasetn.com/weathercams)


Also, here's a screenshot for those who don't feel like clicking the link ;)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on December 17, 2011, 11:24:50 PM
Anyone else a little surprised that New Mexico is under a Blizzard Watch?  :blink:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCToday on January 15, 2012, 12:23:12 AM
(http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/6066/article20865270f7472840.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: phw115wvwx on January 15, 2012, 12:30:12 AM
([url]http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/6066/article20865270f7472840.jpg[/url])

Haha!  As you post that image this evening, it snowed tonight in my area. :P  However, I did say it was going to be another La Niña winter just like last winter, so we're actually getting what it should have been last time in this season.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 15, 2012, 10:01:41 AM
I know all winters are different, but I keep thinking about how 2/3rds of winter last year we were in an icebox, then February came and we got milder. This winter we have been and will be mild for 2/3rds of this winter, I think something has to give sooner rather than later. We've been stuck in this pattern since November, the rubber band has to snap. I believe if winter doesn't return when it should for the remainder of this winter, it will return when we don't want it to during Spring. I could end up being wrong, but I don't see us staying in this pattern all the way through Spring w/o something finally giving away.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCToday on January 16, 2012, 03:24:35 AM
I know all winters are different, but I keep thinking about how 2/3rds of winter last year we were in an icebox, then February came and we got milder. This winter we have been and will be mild for 2/3rds of this winter, I think something has to give sooner rather than later. We've been stuck in this pattern since November, the rubber band has to snap. I believe if winter doesn't return when it should for the remainder of this winter, it will return when we don't want it to during Spring. I could end up being wrong, but I don't see us staying in this pattern all the way through Spring w/o something finally giving away.
Well high profile mets have been harping on a "pattern change" since December and that has yet to happen. Break out the shorts and sunscreen over the next few weeks. Looks toasty!
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 25, 2012, 10:08:54 PM
Even Hitler is fed up with Winter this year!  :rofl2:

Hitler Cancels Winter (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2PbT_o746w#)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCToday on January 26, 2012, 03:33:44 AM
Bwahahaha!!!! Too bad its not the classic clip we all are used to but still that was epic!
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 30, 2012, 11:53:29 AM
I know this is gonna change, but were finally seeing fantasy storms again on the GFS! (Well about the past 3 runs or so around the 10th of Feb.) What's even more wild is it bleeds a 1052 HP across the Plains. The bottom literally falls out across the Eastern 2/3rds of the US.

12z GFS Hrs. 276-300

Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 30, 2012, 01:53:08 PM
Yeesh, if that really played out, it would be one of the strongest high pressure systems ever to affect the United States, and the cold area across the Northern Plains could be record breaking. It probably won't, but part of me sorta wants to see that happen. :P
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCCraig on January 30, 2012, 03:03:06 PM
It's possible but don't count on it. I've been watching the GFS recently and I have to say it's been gaining more confidence about what's going to happen in February. It's showing some major blizzards along the east coast just as I thought would happen. Hopefully those come true.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 30, 2012, 03:40:04 PM
I feel somewhat confident and optimistic that February will be the transition month back to Winter, but we'll see. It helps that the Global models agree on a building Pacific Ridge (+PNA) and even hint at a possible -NAO in the long to medium range! I can't remember the last time this entire winter this had happened. It's basically been every model for itself.

I didn't mentioned this in the previous post, but the possible Miller A storm around February 10th does have support from the GFS ensembles so that's a positive sign. :) I don't care about it being a big storm or not for my area, I just want to see some snow for pete's sake! :P The mild weather is ok and all, but it's getting very old and it doesn't feel right  considering how consistently cold it was last winter.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 30, 2012, 05:05:58 PM
Though this is based on no research, I, for some reason, have a sneaking suspicion that things are going to be topsy-turvy when it comes to spring.  When we're expecting the mild temperatures is going to be when the snow and arctic air invades.  Hopefully that won't be the case.

I'm also wondering about the status of La Nina.  I guess we can justify that the south has been warmer, but it's been pretty wet lately.  I guess judging the pattern based on one system is inaccurate, but it is nice to see this rainfall.  *knocks on wood*
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 30, 2012, 06:05:09 PM
The Climate Prediction Center does weekly updates on El Nino and La Nina, releasing reports every Monday. The latest one is here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)

As for the pattern change, I have terrible luck forecasting pattern changes, so I won't give an official forecast, but I think the East will finally get colder, and see an increased probability of snowstorms. Cold wise, though, part of me thinks that temperatures will merely drop down to average, and that we won't see too much below average.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCToday on January 30, 2012, 08:08:52 PM
(http://02f6373.netsolhost.com/WordPress/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Weenie.jpg)

 :P At the least the models have been kinda consistant that there will be some kind of storm. Winter uncancel?
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mike M on January 30, 2012, 08:30:28 PM
I've heard people even here in the northeast whose spring flowers have already bloomed. Insane :wacko:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Localonthe8s on January 30, 2012, 08:59:22 PM
The cherry blossoms in dc have already bloomed. The national mall is as green as anything!
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 30, 2012, 09:34:11 PM
That's why I hate this mild weather has gone for so long as it has, even if February doesn't work out to be cold and stormy, I still think March and April will be which will be terrible news for the agriculture community.

Also, I've heard some folks who live in the SE at other forums say they're seeing flowers/trees blossom along with pollen and even mosquitoes! :blink:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mike M on January 30, 2012, 09:39:25 PM
Oh yeah forgot about that... I'd imagine we'll be having a huge problems with bugs this year too. :hmm:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: phw115wvwx on January 30, 2012, 09:44:01 PM
I'm certainly keeping alert for the possibility of a freak winter storm later in February or March with this pattern.  Regardless, I still feel we're going to be mild overall as nothing suggests a significant pattern change anytime soon that would allow for longer cold outbreaks.  Even if we had a sudden cold snap, it seems that it would only be temporary.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCCraig on January 30, 2012, 09:58:12 PM
I'm also noticing that on some of the little shrubs, (non-evergreen), they have some green on them. There are even some spring/summer time plants still alive from the summer.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 02, 2012, 09:02:35 AM
Well Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today meaning 6 more weeks of winter. The only thing I have to say to that is "Where the heck has winter been the past 2 months?"  :unsure: :dunno: This is winter like weather? Heh, I hate to see what Spring like weather is...:whistling:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on February 02, 2012, 02:45:45 PM
Well Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today meaning 6 more weeks of winter. The only thing I have to say to that is "Where the heck has winter been the past 2 months?"  :unsure: :dunno: This is winter like weather? Heh, I hate to see what Spring like weather is...:whistling:

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow? You sure he wasn't hallucinating?  :rofl2:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 02, 2012, 02:50:44 PM
Well Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today meaning 6 more weeks of winter. The only thing I have to say to that is "Where the heck has winter been the past 2 months?"  :unsure: :dunno: This is winter like weather? Heh, I hate to see what Spring like weather is...:whistling:

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow? You sure he wasn't hallucinating?  :rofl2:

Or drunk, I'm gonna assume both. :P Our groundhog General Lee didn't see his so Spring will be here for good soon although he says that every year... :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on February 02, 2012, 03:07:17 PM
Heh, that's why South Carolina doesn't have one. It would say Spring every dang year.

It will still be winter for Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska with some areas seeing up to 14-16 inches of snow. Blizzard warnings and watches are currently out.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: twcclassics on February 02, 2012, 03:18:42 PM
Looks like a major winter storm is headed in our direction. Rain tomorrow, turning to snow tomorrow night, continuing into Saturday. Our area could get as much as 6 inches, which would be our biggest storm this winter. More at AccuWeather (with a video forecast by Mark Mancuso)...

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzard-bearing-down-on-nebra-1/61082 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzard-bearing-down-on-nebra-1/61082)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mike M on February 02, 2012, 05:04:34 PM
Well Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow today meaning 6 more weeks of winter. The only thing I have to say to that is "Where the heck has winter been the past 2 months?"  :unsure: :dunno: This is winter like weather? Heh, I hate to see what Spring like weather is...:whistling:
>why Groundhog Day is the most pointless holiday of the year B)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 12, 2012, 10:47:06 AM
I'll have a map up on my preliminary snow/ice forecast later.

(http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/774/setupm.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/546/setupm.png/)

Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Trevor on February 12, 2012, 10:59:08 AM
For the Memphis area, i'm forecasting 1-3" south of I-40, 2-4"+ north of I-40.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 12, 2012, 12:59:35 PM
(http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/1521/snowfallforecast.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/9/snowfallforecast.png/)

Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Donovan on February 12, 2012, 01:05:09 PM
([url]http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/1521/snowfallforecast.png[/url]) ([url]http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/9/snowfallforecast.png/[/url])

Nice Job Tavores! I honestly had no idea what this system was doing, thanks for the explainer map!
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 12, 2012, 01:39:50 PM
Nice Job Tavores! I honestly had no idea what this system was doing, thanks for the explainer map!

Thank you, it's a very tricky forecast. A lot of bust potential in my snowfall map if even one thing goes wrong or off track especially in the pink area since this is where I was the most bullish on wintry weather. This area is the most frustrating for me to have much confidence in because it relies heavily on timing of the precip, how fast the warm air advection kicks in, and how fast the HP that settles into E TN/W NC moves out to sea. I'm the most confident on the best areas to see accumulating snow will be from Memphis to Nashville north.

I'm watching the radar trends in TX and the Southern stream isn't looking half bad. Let's take San Angelo, TX for example, a band of heavy precip is heading right for them from the south. Current obs show that San Angelo is only 34 degrees and the dewpoint is still in the teens! It won't take take very long for wetbulbing/evaporational cooling to occur here and bring moderate to possibly heavy snow. I wouldn't be surprised to hear isolated reports of thundersnow as well.

Something else that's interesting to note about San Angelo, earlier this morning the NWS forecast was only calling for rain/sleet. As of the 1pm hour they are now calling for snow/sleet and 1-2 inches! They weren't forecasting any snow accumulations this morning so this is a last minute change. That's what I'm concerned with for areas eastward that everything that happens will have to be figured out in a now-casting mode rather than relying on models short or long term.

RADAR IS TIME SENSITIVE
(http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/SJT_loop.gif)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 12, 2012, 03:03:00 PM
San Angelo is currently reporting heavy snow, as of 1:45 pm CST.  And take a look at their 7-day: 76 degrees by Tuesday!  "If you don't like the weather now, just wait 5 minutes!" :P

As far as the winter weather forecast for OKC/Norman, I can not tell you how many times I have seen it change.  First, it was a slight chance of rain and snow on Sunday.  Then that quickly changed to most of the action happening Sunday night into Monday.  A chance of rain and snow changed to wintry mix, which has now finally changed to snow and sleet expected.  Accumulations should be very minimal.  There is a weather forecaster here who loves to exaggerate snow totals, saying we would get anywhere from 1 to 3 inches.  But I don't think that's going to happen.  Since temperatures will be hovering around the freezing mark, roadways (especially briges/overpasses) may become slick, but I don't think snowfall total is going to be impressive.  Did you know the ground is so warm I actually saw steam coming off of the concrete in a rain shower we had the other day? :blink:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 12, 2012, 03:49:33 PM
It's just an estimate, I can't confirm whether they have accumulated over an inch yet.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Donovan on February 12, 2012, 05:08:56 PM
And the mess continues tomorrow. I was having trouble with the nws grids matching up with the actual 7 day for some reason. Some local forecasts may be off slightly.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Trevor on February 12, 2012, 05:14:22 PM
Great icons, Donovan! I sent you a PM.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Zach on February 12, 2012, 05:48:10 PM
Definitely a healthy storm :yes: though it beats me why TWC isnt preempting when they have preempted on weaker storms in the past... :whistling:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 12, 2012, 08:25:57 PM
Definitely a healthy storm :yes: though it beats me why TWC isnt preempting when they have preempted on weaker storms in the past... :whistling:

TWC's priorities are very screwed up these days. It's no surprise. :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 12, 2012, 08:37:09 PM
Definitely a healthy storm :yes: though it beats me why TWC isnt preempting when they have preempted on weaker storms in the past... :whistling:

TWC's priorities are very screwed up these days. It's no surprise. :rolleyes:

From my point of view (correct me if you think I am biased), TWC never highlights the "Deep South" (mainly Texas and Oklahoma) as much as they need to.  If this situation were happening in the southeast or northeast, I bet you they would pre-empt and have weather.com in "red" mode. <_<
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 12, 2012, 08:43:26 PM
Definitely a healthy storm :yes: though it beats me why TWC isnt preempting when they have preempted on weaker storms in the past... :whistling:

TWC's priorities are very screwed up these days. It's no surprise. :rolleyes:

From my point of view (correct me if you think I am biased), TWC never highlights the "Deep South" (mainly Texas and Oklahoma) as much as they need to.  If this situation were happening in the southeast or northeast, I bet you they would pre-empt and have weather.com in "red" mode. <_<

No, I don't think you're being bias. It's all about what will pull in ratings. I'm sure if it was a blizzard going on in TX/OK instead of just the usual snowstorm they would be preempting right now. Heck, I was surprised they pr emptied for that snowstorm that hit Chicago last month. I guess they only did that because it was the first major winter storm for that area all winter at that point and this has been a boring winter as far as snow is concerned east of the Rockies.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Donovan on February 12, 2012, 11:04:16 PM
I'm doubting it since the low will be 33°, but I wonder if anything happens that could change this forecast to move it further east into my area? Hmm... Forecast is for some icy/sleet just a couple miles away from my location for the 7AM hour.
EDIT: Maybe a touch of winter precip isn't too far out of the question this year?  :thinking:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 12, 2012, 11:31:40 PM
Incredible!!  The ground here has turned white in a matter of 15 minutes! :o  It's dark outside, so it's hard to see how much is covered, but I do see the white stuff.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 13, 2012, 05:22:49 AM
Incredible!!  The ground here has turned white in a matter of 15 minutes! :o  It's dark outside, so it's hard to see how much is covered, but I do see the white stuff.

Were the flakes big or the snowfall rates heavy? I know I read in a MD issued by the SPC that some areas in TX/OK would see 1/2 inch an hour rates. I wanna get a feel of how things might play out here in my backyard. Also I noticed looking at the radar trends, the precip is moving east hours faster than modeled to. It's already affecting W/TN and Northern MS. I expect it to be in N. GA somewhere in the 2pm -5pm hour.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 13, 2012, 02:07:18 PM
Incredible!!  The ground here has turned white in a matter of 15 minutes! :o  It's dark outside, so it's hard to see how much is covered, but I do see the white stuff.

Were the flakes big or the snowfall rates heavy? I know I read in a MD issued by the SPC that some areas in TX/OK would see 1/2 inch an hour rates. I wanna get a feel of how things might play out here in my backyard. Also I noticed looking at the radar trends, the precip is moving east hours faster than modeled to. It's already affecting W/TN and Northern MS. I expect it to be in N. GA somewhere in the 2pm -5pm hour.

Honestly, it was hard to tell because it was dark outside.  However, I think we got a heavier snowfall rate (a whopping 1 inch or so). :P

Since all of this happened overnight, I am not 100% sure on the details, but I don't think we got much ice like what was originally expected.  Everything is pretty much all a slushy snow (that's already melting).
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on February 15, 2012, 11:43:22 AM
Carl Parker - "one of the reliable models indicate a stronger storm for the Mid Atlantic coming up to Southern New England Sunday night into Monday, we could be could be talking about substantial snow for Hartford and Boston."
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCToday on February 15, 2012, 02:02:01 PM
Carl Parker - "one of the reliable models indicate a stronger storm for the Mid Atlantic coming up to Southern New England Sunday night into Monday, we could be could be talking about substantial snow for Hartford and Boston."

Well this reliable model jumped from a southern cutter to a new england storm in 4 runs.

(http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/7444/post4073416100132928025.gif)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCCraig on February 15, 2012, 02:36:48 PM
From what I've seen on the models, it'll probably be only a rain and wind storm for me.  :thumbdown:
But hey, I like wind storms.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mike M on February 15, 2012, 06:54:37 PM
Nor'easter next week?

(http://i42.tinypic.com/2n9cm5g.jpg)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCCraig on February 15, 2012, 08:37:17 PM
Hopefully this turns out to be a powerful nor'easter. I hoping for a strong wind storm out of this one.  A ESE wind off the ocean would be perfect for high winds here. Let's get a repeat of the March 13th, 2010 nor'easter.  :)



Sidenote: I'm kinda weird. During high wind storms, I sit by my windows and watch the trees sway, sometimes for hours.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: phw115wvwx on February 15, 2012, 10:38:09 PM
You're all looking at the GFS model though, which has been notoriously flip-flopping lately.  Check out the European model, and you'll see it takes this system to the south and harmlessly out to sea.  It's too far out to predict a winter storm, but I'd watch to see which of the models finally concedes to the other.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCToday on February 16, 2012, 03:03:38 AM
0Z Euro was a pretty big hit for VA. Not much precip north of Maryland though. GFS has been all over the place. It's 0z run is much different than even earlier yesterday. ~sigh~ Model inconsistency ftw!
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 16, 2012, 08:12:03 AM
It's sad there's not enough funding for those RECON missions to be done for all storms, it would cut down on some of the confusion and save us from some migraines. :P
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on February 16, 2012, 12:59:17 PM
Here's one of the updated runs

(http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/4389/sun1b.png)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCToday on February 16, 2012, 06:18:45 PM
GFS is moving more towards the Euro solution. It amazes me how poorly that model is doing. For a while it looked like it wanted to send the low up the mountains. 0z runs tonight should be very interesting
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: phw115wvwx on February 18, 2012, 10:30:53 PM
Well, it looks like my area is going to have a wet and messy Sunday from this system.  It's the first winter storm warning of the season for most locations around me, but it'll be tough as the ground is really warm.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCC_VernonMetcalf on March 11, 2012, 12:00:55 PM
Bumping this thread because we all would know that this winter was the 4th warmest on record in the United States, according to the National Weather Service. In case you all may not have been aware of before, I've recently read something interesting online that the unusual winter warmth North America and extreme cold invasion in Europe could be blamed on the eruption of the Grímsvötn volcano that occurred last May.

http://www.almanac.com/blog/weather-blog/volcano-blasted-winter (http://www.almanac.com/blog/weather-blog/volcano-blasted-winter)

Now, I have a feeling what this winter in the US seemed to have in common with the winter of 1991-1992.  :whistling:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCCraig on March 12, 2012, 08:33:58 PM
This thread should be dwindling soon. After all, April/May/June like temps are expected for 2/3rds of the nation over the next 2 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised to see this March shatter the record books for the warmest March in US recorded history.  :no:

Hopefully it will raise awareness that global warming is really becoming a threat; not trying to debate, I'm just saying.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCCraig on March 12, 2012, 10:03:37 PM
Once again; "not trying to debate". I know you have to look at this globally; and globally seems to be the same problem. Europe is only a tiny fraction to the rest of Earth and especially to North America so you can't really say that the cold in Europe makes up for the warmth here. :dunno: The cold in Europe is only the coldest since 1991, the warmth here has been some of the warmest in all time.

I know one thing is for sure, I'm definitely not looking forward to these next couple of weeks :thumbdown:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Donovan on March 12, 2012, 10:14:41 PM
Once again; "not trying to debate". I know you have to look at this globally; and globally seems to be the same problem. Europe is only a tiny fraction to the rest of Earth and especially to North America so you can't really say that the cold in Europe makes up for the warmth here. :dunno: The cold in Europe is only the coldest since 1991, the warmth here has been some of the warmest in all time.

I know one thing is for sure, I'm definitely not looking forward to these next couple of weeks :thumbdown:
You do have a good point. I'm not looking forward to it here either. Forecast is for 83° on Thursday and it should be just out of the 60's.  :wacko:
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 13, 2012, 09:38:48 AM
I'm ready to suppress and forget this anti-Winter didn't happen.  :itsok: I'm actually content with the warm weather now. Although 80s in March are unusual, but not impossible. Records for Wed/Thu are in jeopardy of being broken or tied here, but surprisingly they are not that far back. The one for Wed. is 82 from 1989 and Thu. is 81 from 1973.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: WeatherWitness on March 13, 2012, 01:56:53 PM
For me, winter is my least favorite season., so the relative lack of cold air did not bother me at all.  I can't stand the cold temperatures (although I know that when I'm walking to class sweating later this year I'll think otherwise :P).  But since Oklahoma got one snow "event" this year and I have seen snow, I am officially satisfied. :rofl:  Hopefully no more ridiculous cold fronts will roll through, although we're in Oklahoma...I can't promise anything.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on March 13, 2012, 09:28:42 PM
I love the cold, and even though I wasn't in North Dakota to see their winter, I would have loved to. That state broke some record highs just the other day - that being said, the highs were only in the 40s and 50s.

The United States has been very warm, Europe has been quite cold, and Oceania has been cooler than average. I honestly don't have a clue what's going on, but I'm sure we can all agree this year has been just downright strange weather-wise.
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 13, 2012, 09:49:28 PM
Strange weather indeed, up until this month I spent most of my winter doing this whenever it got cold and no storm was around or there was a storm system and it turned into a severe weather outbreak. I've been punished with a rather boring winter, I hope I'm not punished with a brutal summer too.  :(
(http://img2.moonbuggy.org/imgstore/stupid-cliff-diving.gif)
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: TWCToday on March 13, 2012, 10:49:28 PM
(http://www.biggerhammer.net/mgshoot/kcrfall2k/flamethrower_straight.jpg)

Embrace the torch! :P
Title: Re: Winter Storm Thread: 2011-12 Season
Post by: Mr. Rainman on April 15, 2013, 04:03:23 AM
BUMP.

Regarding winter weather, Bismarck ND broke the all-time record for most snow in a 24 hour period, racking up 16 inches of snow so far.