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Author Topic: SPC Convective Outlook Changes Coming  (Read 1723 times)

phw115wvwx

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SPC Convective Outlook Changes Coming
« on: April 23, 2014, 05:48:03 PM »
After nearly 35 years of using the system we all know to describe the Days 1-3 severe weather threat (See Text, Slight Risk, Moderate Risk, and High Risk), SPC just announced a change that will take effect as early as this September.  The "See Text" will be eliminated and replaced with a new category, and the rather broad "Slight Risk" category will be split into two categories.  The general thunder line denoting at least a 10% chance of thunderstorms will stay unchanged.  In short, there will be five categories of severe weather threat in this new system, and I have included the abbreviations in capital letters that will appear in SPC's maps:

1) Marginal (MRGL) - replaces "See Text" entirely and becomes a new category in itself
2) Slight (SLGT) - only covers events on the lower end of the formerly broader "Slight Risk" category
3) Enhanced (ENH) - new category to cover events on the higher end of the formerly broader "Slight Risk" category
4) Moderate (MDT) - essentially unchanged overall but with two exceptions in the Day 1 outlook
5) High (HIGH) - thresholds left unchanged

You can read more about these new categories, all the proposed changes along with the two exceptions I mentioned in the Moderate Risk category, and why these changes are being done in the first place here:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/dy1-3example/

A NOAA survey can be found in that article if you want to provide feedback.  What are your thoughts on all these changes and the new Convective Outlook system?

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Re: SPC Convective Outlook Changes Coming
« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2014, 10:19:35 PM »
I seem to have overlooked this topic when it was posted.  Anyway, I feel these changes apply mainly to weather enthusiasts and other meteorologists more than just the general public.  Unfortunately, even after constant emphasis by the SPC and local NWS offices, I still do not think the public fully comprehends the meaning of three risks we already have (slight, moderate, high).  I feel plenty of people do not treat a "slight" risk with care and expect a "high" risk on days with tornadoes, even though that's not how it works.  I feel the addition of two categories will only confuse the public more.

However, for the weather enthusiasts and meteorologists, I do think it is a good idea.  The replacement of the "see text" will be nice, and the "enhanced" should provide a good common ground between slight and moderate, as I do feel that some "slight" risk days can be active but maybe not active enough to be considered "moderate."  Despite being on the lower end of the scale, perhaps these new categories will allow the SPC to stray away from issuing a "high" risk too often.  Everyone is going to have their own opinion on this, but I feel the SPC has been a little too "high risk-happy" lately.  April 28th's outbreak was warranted; April 27th I do not think was.