TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Mr. Rainman on January 26, 2013, 12:46:12 AM
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A new year, a new season for severe weather! And it looks like we'll start off with a bang this year, as a fairly impressive trough sets up Tuesday across the Midwest with a lot of moisture and potential instability ahead of it - and if the forecast temperatures from NWS verify, we could be seeing quite a bit of it.
I'd say at least damaging winds and hail along with a few tornadoes with this. If all the parameters fall in place, those tornadoes could be strong/long-tracked. Looking at analog data, the set up looks to be quite similar to the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008.
I've attached 29/18Z of the 00Z GFS below.
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Very interesting something to definitely keep a close eye for
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Here is the SPC's current threat area for Tuesday and Wednesday (Days 4 and 5, respectively). Again, this is still pretty far out, so the threat area is likely to change. But anyone in the highlighted areas needs to be on the lookout for potentially dangerous conditions.
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Sorry for the double post, but here is SPC's highlighted threat area for Tuesday (Day 3), and then Wednesday (Day 4). A widespread area will be affected, so please monitor any dangerous weather conditions.
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This continues to look like a dangerous situation for a large swath of the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states and then all the way up the East Coast. Please stay vigilant, everyone!
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This continues to look like a dangerous situation for a large swath of the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states and then all the way up the East Coast. Please stay vigilant, everyone!
Do you think we'll see a setup that'll resemble the 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak?
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I'm thinking more of January 22, 2012. A repeat of Super Tuesday (2008) probably (and hopefully) won't happen again for a long time. That was a a horrible day.
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This continues to look like a dangerous situation for a large swath of the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states and then all the way up the East Coast. Please stay vigilant, everyone!
Do you think we'll see a setup that'll resemble the 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak?
Agree with Trevor. Both GFS and NAM are advertising a nasty squall line to rapidly move through Gulf Coast on Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday, so damaging winds definitely look like a big threat. The question still remains over the tornado threat - I'm not sure enough to say whether we will have discrete cells ahead of the main line (that would suggest a more significant event in regards to tornadoes). Since it's high shear/low CAPE event, the most likely scenario is embedded tornadoes within the line.
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I only see one of two (maybe both of the two) scenarios playing out for my area. Were gonna get E or ENE winds from the Atlantic ahead of the squall line, keeping us cool and stabilized to kill it off or some junk convection will develop in front of it preventing us from maxing out on diurnal heating and it'll weaken. It never fails. The only winter month that seems to materialize anything of significance is February (ironically the same month GA preps for Severe Weather Awareness Week). The nastiest one of the past 5 years was February 18, 2009. I don't recall The Super Tuesday 2008 Tornado Outbreak being too bad once it progressed our way. :no: I remember AR/TN getting slammed the hardest that day though.
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Moderate Risk initiated for Tuesday
(http://i.imgur.com/KJLO8HI.gif)
SPC AC 281730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN LA...CNTRL AND ERN
AR...EXTREME SWRN TN AND NWRN TO WCNTRL MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER THROUGH MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL ADVANCE
EWD...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED FROM MN THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. MID
LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX LOCATED WITHIN BASE OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD EJECT FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. A POLAR FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SFC LOW OVER IA SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH WRN TX. POLAR FRONT
WILL ADVANCE SEWD DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE PACIFIC FRONT SURGES
EWD AND MERGES WITH DRYLINE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN MODERATE RISK AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
RESERVOIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM CNTRL INTO SRN TX.
SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALREADY EXISTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INTENSIFYING LLJ. WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD
ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR AND NRN MS BENEATH A
PLUME OF 6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN AT LEAST
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK INTO NCNTRL/NERN TX EARLY TUESDAY AND SHIFT EWD
AND NEWD DURING THE DAY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
THROUGH ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG MERGING PACIFIC FRONT AND
SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME SFC BASED. STORMS
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH A 50+ KT SLY LLJ
AND MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 80 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO A PREDOMINANT QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING
SEGMENTS POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. TORNADO
THREAT MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE RISK AREA
WHERE LLJ INTENSIFYING TO IN EXCESS OF 70 KT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH
NRN EDGE OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS.
...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY REGION...
OTHER STORMS WILL EXPAND NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SWRN
PARTS OF OH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED...BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH PRIMARY MODE BEING
LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH MESO VORTICES. A FEW EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS AND
STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR SUGGESTING A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
..DIAL.. 01/28/2013
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Tornado probabilities for today. Should start by daybreak and really ramp up by the afternoon.
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1probotlk_20130129_1200_torn_prt.gif)
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Looks like my thoughts from a few hours ago may have been terribly premature. It didn't look like much was going to happen, but that's certainly changing. Little Rock, AR is under a tornado warning right now as I type this.
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Well I'll be damned, this severe weather ain't playin' around. I got a few rough hours ahead for me. Tornado warnings flying up to my NW. I thought the morning rainfall was going to stabilize the atmosphere as it has in the past severe wx events, but this event is CLEARLY proving to me it's not weak-sauce for us GA folks.
There's already been a rather large tornado that touched down in Adarisville, GA to my NW where 1 fatality was reported unfortunately. :(
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Here's the Adairsville, GA tornado.
There's also several Youtube videos of it as well. Here's one of them from a reporter (Ross Cavitt) from our ABC affiliate WSB-TV where he and his crew were filming it.
Video of Tornado forming directly infront of a reporter in Adairsville,Georgia - Latest Tornado news (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKWuS8UdU7M#ws)
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Looks like an EF3 but that all depends on the damage it produced.
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Looks like an EF3 but that all depends on the damage it produced.
Yeah, a couple of local mets suspect it's probably going to be classified as an EF2 or 3. The damage was extensive and widespread and it's obvious that it's a wedge tornado.
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Official report on the Adairsville, GA tornado which was classified as a strong EF3 tornado w/ winds of 160 mph.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR WEDNESDAY 1/30/2013 TORNADO EVENT...
...ONE TORNADO IDENTIFIED SO FAR IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA...
.OVERVIEW...
A TEAM OF METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
PEACHTREE CITY GEORGIA SURVEYED THE DAMAGE CAUSED BY A SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM THAT TRACKED ACROSS NORTHWEST BARTOW AND CENTRAL GORDON
COUNTIES FROM APPROXIMATELY 1115 AM TO 1155 AM ON WEDNESDAY...
JANUARY 30 2013. RESULTS FROM THE SURVEY INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING.
.ADAIRSVILLE TORNADO...
RATING: HIGH END EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 160 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 21.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 900 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: 17 /9 IN BARTOW...8 IN GORDON/
START DATE: JAN 30 2013
START TIME: 1112 AM EST
START LOCATION: 2.4 MI SW ADAIRSVILLE/BARTOW COUNTY START
LAT/LON: 34.3411N/-84.9527W
END DATE: JAN 30 2013
END TIME: 1143 AM EST
END LOCATION: 14.3 MI NE CALHOUN OR NEAR OAKMAN/GORDON COUNTY
END LAT/LON: 34.5981N/-84.7313W
IN BARTOW COUNTY...AT LEAST 95 STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED...WITH 31
DESTROYED... 17 SUSTAINING MAJOR DAMAGE...AND 47 WITH MINOR DAMAGE.
MOST OF THE DAMAGE WAS A RESULT OF TREES FALLING ON HOMES IN
DOWNTOWN ADAIRSVILLE. IN GORDON COUNTY...268 HOMES STRUCTURES WERE
IMPACTED. OF THESE...30 WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED...110 HAD MAJOR
DAMAGE... AND ANOTHER 70 HAD MINOR DAMAGE. 202 OF THESE WERE SINGLE
FAMILY HOMES AND 66 WERE MOBILE HOMES.
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Official report on the Adairsville, GA tornado which was classified as a strong EF3 tornado w/ winds of 160 mph.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR WEDNESDAY 1/30/2013 TORNADO EVENT...
...ONE TORNADO IDENTIFIED SO FAR IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA...
.OVERVIEW...
A TEAM OF METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
PEACHTREE CITY GEORGIA SURVEYED THE DAMAGE CAUSED BY A SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM THAT TRACKED ACROSS NORTHWEST BARTOW AND CENTRAL GORDON
COUNTIES FROM APPROXIMATELY 1115 AM TO 1155 AM ON WEDNESDAY...
JANUARY 30 2013. RESULTS FROM THE SURVEY INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING.
.ADAIRSVILLE TORNADO...
RATING: HIGH END EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 160 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 21.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 900 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: 17 /9 IN BARTOW...8 IN GORDON/
START DATE: JAN 30 2013
START TIME: 1112 AM EST
START LOCATION: 2.4 MI SW ADAIRSVILLE/BARTOW COUNTY START
LAT/LON: 34.3411N/-84.9527W
END DATE: JAN 30 2013
END TIME: 1143 AM EST
END LOCATION: 14.3 MI NE CALHOUN OR NEAR OAKMAN/GORDON COUNTY
END LAT/LON: 34.5981N/-84.7313W
IN BARTOW COUNTY...AT LEAST 95 STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED...WITH 31
DESTROYED... 17 SUSTAINING MAJOR DAMAGE...AND 47 WITH MINOR DAMAGE.
MOST OF THE DAMAGE WAS A RESULT OF TREES FALLING ON HOMES IN
DOWNTOWN ADAIRSVILLE. IN GORDON COUNTY...268 HOMES STRUCTURES WERE
IMPACTED. OF THESE...30 WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED...110 HAD MAJOR
DAMAGE... AND ANOTHER 70 HAD MINOR DAMAGE. 202 OF THESE WERE SINGLE
FAMILY HOMES AND 66 WERE MOBILE HOMES.
I should get a reward for guessing the rating correctly :P
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You get half credit because you didn't guess the wind speed. :lol:
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Hattiesburg, MS got hit hard by a pretty impressive wedge tornado yesterday. Preliminary reports put the injured near 80. Thankfully, no fatalities.
Video of the storm.
Hattiesburg Tornado RAW - John Sibley 2/10/13 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGLSSUHrOeE#ws)
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Very scary looking storm, glad to hear no casualties either.
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Yet another severe weather outbreak I underestimated. It started out rather tame like January 30th, then suddenly it blossomed into this mess. I'm glad to hear there were no deaths and hopefully those injured will recover very soon.
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Yet another severe weather outbreak I underestimated. It started out rather tame like January 30th, then suddenly it blossomed into this mess. I'm glad to hear there were no deaths and hopefully those injured will recover very soon.
Agreed. Preliminary rating is EF3 with winds of 145 mph.
EDIT: Now an EF4. Winds 170 mph.
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I smell a severe weather outbreak for the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley early next week. At this point it definitely looks like a Moderate Risk situation, and if the shear improves, I cannot rule out the possibility of a High Risk. Definitely something to keep an eye on as the pattern finally turns unstable.
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I've been watching the situation as well, and I completely agree. It looks very interesting.
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If something transpires from this event, we can certainly put the watches and warnings here. I wouldn't be surprised to see something pretty healthy in terms of convection. SPC already has a Day 4 and Day 5 outlook in place for the central Plains in the attached image.
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I hate to be a wx weenie and ask this, but how is this event shaping up for N. GA? Not very good at analyzing severe weather on the computer models.
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I hate to be a wx weenie and ask this, but how is this event shaping up for N. GA? Not very good at analyzing severe weather on the computer models.
There's still a threat for later that week in your area, but it's a question mark as the models either show the front coming through your area or lifting more to your north. I think you can ask more questions for more analysis in Trevor's thread within the Forecasting board if you want more technical analysis from others to help you. ;)
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It's about time it started getting more active. March was so quiet do to the cold temperatures. I hope it will be one system right after the other and where I live, it will be active here in Birmingham, as well, but not like 2 years ago, namely April 27, 2011. Don't want to see a day like that again. :no:
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Big slight risk out covering 30 million people, and a healthy-sized 30% probability range with significant hashings. Just enough uncertainty in the forecast to hold off from anything higher, but I expect an upgrade for the morning of Day 1, if not Day 2.
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Easiest. Frontal. Analysis. Ever.
This event is gonna be fun interesting!
EDIT: To avoid coming across as a total insensitive jerk, I've edited my comment. :P
(https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/48149_525631780812134_548205762_n.jpg)
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Moderate Risk. Oklahoma City is in this one.
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Today's a good weather-watching day. I'll get to keep up with what's going on, but I might have the right motivation to see what's happening down at TWC, too. At least I'm not in the red area of that map, but I'll probably still hear some thunder.
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Tornado watches posted from south-central MS into LA, with additional watch/watches possible from eastern MS through southern TN: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0442.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0442.html)
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It looks like the quiet spring we've experienced thus far is coming to an end, following a tornado outbreak in North Texas yesterday. The NWS in Fort Worth is saying at least 10 tornadoes were confirmed from the outbreak.
The tornado in Granbury, TX has been given a preliminary rating of EF4. I am still waiting to see, and curious, what the rating on that mile-wide tornado in Cleburne will be.
I am wishing for safety for any of you in the path of storms over the coming days and recovery for anyone who has been affected by these deadly tornadoes.
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It looks like the quiet spring we've experienced thus far is coming to an end, following a tornado outbreak in North Texas yesterday. The NWS in Fort Worth is saying at least 10 tornadoes were confirmed from the outbreak.
The tornado in Granbury, TX has been given a preliminary rating of EF4. I am still waiting to see, and curious, what the rating on that mile-wide tornado in Cleburne will be.
I am wishing for safety for any of you in the path of storms over the coming days and recovery for anyone who has been affected by these deadly tornadoes.
It's been confirmed to be an Ef4 with 6 fatalities confirmed and 7 people still missing. Yesterday now seems to be the start of this year's tornado season, and it looks like we might get another outbreak next weekend. Most of the damage was south of Dallas and mainly south of Fort Worth, though I saw one supercell was headed right for downtown Dallas. Coppell has seen some major damage (wind) according to my relatives who live relatively close to where the tornado struck.
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An EF4 tornado, that sounds familier. :fear:
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Looks like a potential outbreak of tornadoes is possible today through tomorrow from the upper Plains to the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Those who are in the threat zone please be careful and stay safe.
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I am watching TWC's live coverage of a tornado, they are showing a tornado live just north of OKC and it has exploded from a rope to a half-mile wide multiple vortex tornado, according to Jim Cantore.
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Sad stuff out of Moore, Ok. Possible EF5 tornado. Some images show complete obliteration of homes, schools, everything. :(
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Sad stuff out of Moore, Ok. Possible EF5 tornado. Some images show complete obliteration of homes, schools, everything. :(
That was my preliminary guess too Craig, my thoughts and prayers go out to everyone in Oklahoma on this tragic day.
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It's very chilling and heartbreaking to see all of the mass destruction the storm left in its path :( My thoughts and prayers are with the victims of today's violent tornado.
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I don't like to double post, but has anyone seen the tragic tornadoes in Oklahoma and in Moore? Moore has been hit several times. Moore was hit very hard by an F5 tornado on May 3rd, 1999 and today, history has repeated itself. It's so sad and tragic. :( :fear: :cry:
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Posted by TWC's own Stu Ostro on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152264168179057&set=a.298616809056.144294.278959564056&type=1)
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Now you see why I would never want to live in the Great Plains. Things happen way too frequently as it's a natural battleground between hot and cold air masses along with dry and moist air masses. There's also no real terrain to detour or block these ingredients from clashing together in this area. :( You end up with multiple threats of tornadoes in a really short span of time compared to other places. I hope everyone out there will be okay, but I'm afraid severe weather season in 2013 just officially began with a bang.
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I know tornado activity isn't too hot in Texas for the month of June but I am having second thoughts about going to Dallas next month. Where I'm going is in the tornado watch area.
Speaking of Dallas, looks like there are two warnings for the counties just south of Fort Worth.
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Another tornado outbreak possible this Tuesday/Wednesday. According to Kyla grogan, these storms could produce overnight tornadoes in the plains.
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Another tornado outbreak possible this Tuesday/Wednesday. According to Kyla grogan, these storms could produce overnight tornadoes in the plains.
That is not good. :no:
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SPC has slight risks up for the northern Plains this week. Kansas, Nebraska, and other states nearby could see some action.
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HIGH RISK hatched today for IL and IN. (Includes the cities of Chicago and Fort Wayne)
(http://i.imgur.com/ZJkogM3.gif)
SPC AC 121626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN IOWA
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
FROM EASTERN IOWA TO WESTERN OHIO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST TO EAST COAST AND PARTS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MT AND A PART OF
NERN WY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COINCIDENT WITH A COMPACT AND INTENSIFYING
SURFACE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS AS WELL
AS SCATTERED...POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES.
...ERN IA/NRN IL/NRN IND/NWRN OH AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME SRN
WI AND SWRN LOWER MI...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS HAVE CONGEALED AHEAD OF A
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60KT MID
LEVEL WLY FLOW CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AN
EXPANSIVE WARM/MOIST SECTOR EXISTS AHEAD OF THE UPPER FORCING AND
DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE WITH 2M DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S F AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDWEST FROM IA EAST ACROSS IL/IND/OH. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THIS SAME REGION INDICATE A PRONOUNCED EML ADVECTING EAST FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM.
DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DEGREE OF
HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AIDING SURFACE CYCLONE
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS ERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL PROVE ADEQUATE
FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION. ADDITIONAL NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL MAY PRECEDE TRULY
SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM NERN IA ACROSS SRN WI TO LOWER
MI. GIVEN DEGREE OF CAPPING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT
POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG STORM-RELATIVELY HELICITY /SRH/. ANY
CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL QUICKLY
ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN DEGREE OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
SHEAR OF 35-55KT. POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED
DURING THIS EARLY DEVELOPMENT PHASE /21Z-00Z/ NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT
WHILE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE AMIDST HIGH INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2.
ORGANIZING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE RIPPLING EAST
ALONG THE WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...IN CONCERT WITH 50-60KT
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIRECTED PREFERENTIALLY INTO/ACROSS THE
DEVELOPING MASS OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS UPSCALE PROGRESSIVE MCS
/POSSIBLE DERECHO/ EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING...AND DEPICTION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS...RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A NUMBER OF STORM-SCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS
SHOWING MCS/DERECHO EVOLUTION WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WRF-ARW SIMULATION FROM 00Z TAKES THE APEX OF THE
PROGRESSIVE MCS FROM CHICAGO TO DETROIT IN UNDER 6 HOURS WITH A
FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 40KT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN AND
AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH HIGH WINDS
POSSIBLY WELL IN EXCESS OF 60KT...AS WELL A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL
LINE/QLCS.
...OH EAST TO EAST COAST/SOUTHEAST...
WARM MOIST AIRMASS ALSO EXISTS WELL EAST OF THE STRONGER FORCING
ACROSS FROM OH EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO EAST COAST. SOME
MODEL SIMULATIONS DEPICT THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING FROM INITIALLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR REMAIN
SUBTLE/WEAK ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW
HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THESE PARTS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA.
...MT/NERN WY...
STRONG IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF LARGER TROUGH ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AID ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A NUMBER OF SUPERCELL
STORMS POSING BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
ALSO EVOLVE FROM INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
STORM UPDRAFT LAYER.
..CARBIN/SMITH/BUNTING.. 06/12/2013
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Areas just west of Chicago are under tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings.
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Ouch...that forecast is busting in spectacular fashion. Not a single significant wind gust report, and hardly any significant hail. No really strong tornadoes, either.
I'm still scratching my head as to why they decided a High Risk was a good idea in the first place. :thinking:
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Ouch...that forecast is busting in spectacular fashion. Not a single significant wind gust report, and hardly any significant hail. No really strong tornadoes, either.
I'm still scratching my head as to why they decided a High Risk was a good idea in the first place. :thinking:
I don't think a high risk outlook should be categorized as the severity of severe weather. I think the "High Risk" as well as other risk outlooks issued by the SPC are based on severe weather probabilities, not severity. There were numerous tornado, wind, and hail reports today.
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Ouch...that forecast is busting in spectacular fashion. Not a single significant wind gust report, and hardly any significant hail. No really strong tornadoes, either.
I'm still scratching my head as to why they decided a High Risk was a good idea in the first place. :thinking:
I don't think a high risk outlook should be categorized as the severity of severe weather. I think the "High Risk" as well as other risk outlooks issued by the SPC are based on severe weather probabilities, not severity. There were numerous tornado, wind, and hail reports today.
You have to look at why there was a High Risk, though, and it was because they were expecting widespread significant wind gusts. That certainly did not happen, which is why the forecast busted. A plain ole 45% wind corridor with no significant hashing would have been more than sufficient.
And noting that there were hardly any significant wind or hail events, along with no significant tornadoes (thus far), it could be argued that the PDS Tornado and PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches were a bust as well.
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Ouch...that forecast is busting in spectacular fashion. Not a single significant wind gust report, and hardly any significant hail. No really strong tornadoes, either.
I'm still scratching my head as to why they decided a High Risk was a good idea in the first place. :thinking:
I don't think a high risk outlook should be categorized as the severity of severe weather. I think the "High Risk" as well as other risk outlooks issued by the SPC are based on severe weather probabilities, not severity. There were numerous tornado, wind, and hail reports today.
In my eyes, it should be both. Maybe the SPC should do away with the "risk" levels altogether, because as I read on one meteorologist's page, anyone in an area of elevated risk, whether it be slight, moderate, or high, should be prepared for severe weather. For example, if someone is in a high risk, they should not prepare "more" than someone only in a slight risk. However, I still think the SPC needs that one risk level which is rarely used so that, when it is used, it means a significant outbreak is likely and everyone should be ready.
Yes, there were numerous hail and wind reports yesterday (some tornado reports too), but in my eyes, none were significant enough to warrant a "high risk." I know these reports are still preliminary, so this could change. The high risk was issued primarily for wind. Unfortunately, a lot of the speeds associated with reported damage are unknown. The highest wind speed I am seeing reported is 80 mph, and there is only one report of that. But even a lot of the wind reports/damage were reported out of the high risk area! The two biggest hail reports I am seeing are 2.50" (tennis ball) and 2.75" (baseball), but ironically, those were also out of the high risk area! A lot of the hail reports were quarter to golf ball size. Yes, that is severe, but if a high risk was issued every time quarter to golf ball-size hail occurred, we'd be seeing a high risk for almost every severe weather outbreak!
Unfortunately, the PDS Tornado Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch also busted. Again, all the details are not known at this time, but I do not think we saw a single "violent, long-lived" tornado in the watch area. We also did not see 3"+ hail like the watches called for, or a derecho-like scenario. So, I would have to agree that yesterday was a bust overall.
Now I know severe weather is, at times, highly unpredictable and difficult to forecast. I apologize if my post is written in a way that makes me look like I hate the SPC or could do a better job because I don't think I could. However, as was made clear by the media yesterday, when a high risk is issued, a pretty significant outbreak of severe weather needs to happen, otherwise it will be like "crying wolf" and we certainly don't want the public to stop heeding high risks if we mess up too many times. Unfortunately, it seems quite a bit of high risks have busted in the past.
OK, I am sorry for this long rant. Craig, please know that we're not trying to bash you; I had actually started writing this post before Mac posted his. I just feel that the system or criteria for risks should be looked at or better understood. What are everyone else's thoughts?
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In my eyes, it should be both. Maybe the SPC should do away with the "risk" levels altogether, because as I read on one meteorologist's page, anyone in an area of elevated risk, whether it be slight, moderate, or high, should be prepared for severe weather. For example, if someone is in a high risk, they should not prepare "more" than someone only in a slight risk. However, I still think the SPC needs that one risk level which is rarely used so that, when it is used, it means a significant outbreak is likely and everyone should be ready.
Yes, there were numerous hail and wind reports yesterday (some tornado reports too), but in my eyes, none were significant enough to warrant a "high risk." I know these reports are still preliminary, so this could change. The high risk was issued primarily for wind. Unfortunately, a lot of the speeds associated with reported damage are unknown. The highest wind speed I am seeing reported is 80 mph, and there is only one report of that. But even a lot of the wind reports/damage were reported out of the high risk area! The two biggest hail reports I am seeing are 2.50" (tennis ball) and 2.75" (baseball), but ironically, those were also out of the high risk area! A lot of the hail reports were quarter to golf ball size. Yes, that is severe, but if a high risk was issued every time quarter to golf ball-size hail occurred, we'd be seeing a high risk for almost every severe weather outbreak!
Unfortunately, the PDS Tornado Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch also busted. Again, all the details are not known at this time, but I do not think we saw a single "violent, long-lived" tornado in the watch area. We also did not see 3"+ hail like the watches called for, or a derecho-like scenario. So, I would have to agree that yesterday was a bust overall.
Now I know severe weather is, at times, highly unpredictable and difficult to forecast. I apologize if my post is written in a way that makes me look like I hate the SPC or could do a better job because I don't think I could. However, as was made clear by the media yesterday, when a high risk is issued, a pretty significant outbreak of severe weather needs to happen, otherwise it will be like "crying wolf" and we certainly don't want the public to stop heeding high risks if we mess up too many times. Unfortunately, it seems quite a bit of high risks have busted in the past.
OK, I am sorry for this long rant. Craig, please know that we're not trying to bash you; I had actually started writing this post before Mac posted his. I just feel that the system or criteria for risks should be looked at or better understood. What are everyone else's thoughts?
I agree that the risk areas were misplaced, and a lot of the severe weather occurred outside the high risk area. I've been tracking this system from the start. I have to say, it was poorly modeled from the start. Every model run was different in the placement of everything. It kept changing. But that's what happens in these very dynamical situations. Not being argumentative, but I still think the "high risk" is based on probability, not severity. They did forecast some significant severe wx. to occur, which didn't end of happening. It's easier for the SPC forecast the probability of a severe weather outbreak than it is the severity of it. We can't really predict exactly how strong the tornadoes, how the large the hail, or how strong the wind will be in a particular thunderstorm, but we better predict the probability of some type of severe weather to occur, whether significant or not.
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Apparently, TWC isn't the only place weather sensationalism exists. The SPC's following suit IMHO. I remember a time when a high risk meant something out of the ordinary would happen. Not your typical springtime storms, but generally a vicious tornado outbreak. I'm not aware of such a risk level having been issued for straight-line winds very many times.
Of course, it's better safe than sorry. Assuming people always obeyed the warnings, it would be better for more of them to be issued. People would be safer because they would always prepare, and it's more desirable to prepare for a storm that doesn't pan out than it would be not to prepare due to lack of warning and get caught in a surprise tornado.
Unfortunately, the reality is that warnings are sometimes ignored, and the problem is exacerbated if too many warnings are issued for storms that don't materialize. If "high risk" becomes commonplace, then it becomes the new normal. It would be the equivalent of a tornado warning being used all the time for conditions which would normally warrant a tornado watch only.
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In my eyes, it should be both. Maybe the SPC should do away with the "risk" levels altogether, because as I read on one meteorologist's page, anyone in an area of elevated risk, whether it be slight, moderate, or high, should be prepared for severe weather. For example, if someone is in a high risk, they should not prepare "more" than someone only in a slight risk. However, I still think the SPC needs that one risk level which is rarely used so that, when it is used, it means a significant outbreak is likely and everyone should be ready.
Agreed, I think to an extent having the risk areas works in the same mindset that the general public seems to have about low/high end tornadoes and hurricanes thinking that just because one is rated higher/lower than another one, that must automatically mean it's going to worse or not as bad.
I agree that the risk areas were misplaced, and a lot of the severe weather occurred outside the high risk area. I've been tracking this system from the start. I have to say, it was poorly modeled from the start. Every model run was different in the placement of everything. It kept changing. But that's what happens in these very dynamical situations. Not being argumentative, but I still think the "high risk" is based on probability, not severity. They did forecast some significant severe wx. to occur, which didn't end of happening. It's easier for the SPC forecast the probability of a severe weather outbreak than it is the severity of it. We can't really predict exactly how strong the tornadoes, how the large the hail, or how strong the wind will be in a particular thunderstorm, but we better predict the probability of some type of severe weather to occur, whether significant or not.
I think that's strictly the way it should be. Severe weather is severe weather, like you said it's not possible to accurately predict exactly how strong a tornado, hail or wind from thunderstorms will be.
Apparently, TWC isn't the only place weather sensationalism exists. The SPC's following suit IMHO. I remember a time when a high risk meant something out of the ordinary would happen. Not your typical springtime storms, but generally a vicious tornado outbreak. I'm not aware of such a risk level having been issued for straight-line winds very many times.
I could use some clarification here. Maybe it's the way I'm reading it, but these parts of your post sounds a bit contradictory. At first you mentioned how you remember high risk being issued if something out of the ordinary would happen, yet at the end you said you aren't aware of many high risks being issued for damaging winds. Wouldn't that technically mean at the time issuing the high risk had a validation for being issued? I mean it would have to have been expected to be something out of the ordinary as you mentioned, not your typical line of damaging winds right? :dunno:
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I must not have been thinking there. :unsure: I meant to say "straight-line winds as opposed to tornadoes." I realize tornadoes aren't the only kind of severe weather, but they're the first kind I think of. There's a perception out there that straight-line winds are somehow "less severe" than tornadoes.
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Possible tornado is heading my way, unless it weakens or shifts left (west) or right (east) the rotation will be right over me in the next 30-45 mins.
Reports of green skies in Sandy Plains, GA, we all know what that usually means...
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All the SPC outlooks are based on probability. They determine the percentages for the chances that a wind, hail, or tornado report will occur within 25 miles of a point. They used the hatched areas to denote when there's a 10% or greater chance of more significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. All those probabilities are converted to the risks you see. A high risk means that the odds of having severe weather are much higher than any other random day. It's only implied that an event would be expected to occur based on the conditions, but it does not mean that it's 100% certain. Sure, SPC wishes every high risk could be certain to occur, but it's just not possible. Please view this link from SPC for the conversions of the outlook risks:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html)
Everyone in society can't handle probabilistic forecasts. They want to know if it's going to happen or not, and the science has just not evolved yet to the point where that question can be handled with complete accuracy. Thus, you run into this issue of perception when the reality is that no such theory for mesoscale meteorology exists, and there's no magic formula to tell you exactly when and where these outbreaks will happen. The models were doing a terrible job trying to pinpoint this event, so SPC and everyone else was limited on how well they could predict it. Think about it for the future when you're trying to forecast this kind of event, and you'll see just how difficult it really is to predict severe weather.
I literally just got back from work where 25 severe thunderstorm warnings were issued in the Blacksburg county warning area today, and I actually issued 7 of those. All of them are verified with reports of winds gusts up 70 mph, power outages, numerous trees down, and quarter-sized hail. We even know of two deaths that occurred today. I'm exhausted to say the least.
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An EF-1 tornado was confirmed in Cherokee Co., GA by the NWS Damage Survey team.
386
NOUS42 KFFC 141539
PNSFFC
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150345-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR JUNE 13 2013 TORNADO EVENT - UPDATE #1...
...EF-1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN CHEROKEE COUNTY...
...STILL SURVEYING ADDITIONAL COUNTIES...
.CHEROKEE COUNTY TORNADO...
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 75 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: JUNE 13 2013
START TIME: 7:00 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 4 MILES WNW CANTON
START LAT/LON: 34.2662/-84.5574 W
END DATE: JUNE 13 2013
END TIME: APPROXIMATELY 7:25 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 5 MILES SSE CANTON
END LAT/LON: 34.1705/-84.4666
SURVEY SUMMARY: THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
PATRIOT TRAIL AND RAMPLEY TRAIL...THEN HEADED SOUTH TOWARDS CANTON
CAUSING GENERALLY TREE DAMAGE. HUNDREDS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED. IN CANTON...ALONG MARIETTA ROAD AND HICKORY FLAT
HIGHWAY...A CHEVRON GAS STATION HAD A PORTION OF ITS ROOF PEELED
BACK AND A GAS PUMP BLOWN OVER. ALONG HICKORY FLAT HIGHWAY DOZENS
OF TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. THE TORNADO CURVED TO THE
RIGHT...HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE ALONG
ITS APPROXIMATELY 8.5 MILE PATH. THE TORNADO LIFTED NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF NEW LIGHT ROAD AND HICKORY ROAD.
EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.
EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200MPH
NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.
$$
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It sounds like some rough stuff there, Tavores. At least you're OK.
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It sounds like some rough stuff there, Tavores. At least you're OK.
Yeah it was, the lightning is what had me in awe, I'm completely shocked and surprised we didn't lose power. Over 160,000 folks in the city did during the peak of these tornadoes. Anytime were under a tornado warning now I take it 100x more seriously than I did prior to March 2008. As soon as any thought pops into my mind that it will weaken or it will change directions at the last minute, I remember what happened around here that night so I'll never be that complacent again. :no:
The NWS Damage Survey Team updated their report this afternoon. Turns out the storm didn't just produce one, but two tornadoes. The second tornado affected my county (Fulton) and was also an EF-1. It lifted around the town of Sandy Springs (far nothern edge of the ATL Perimeter)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/text.php?pil=atlpnsffc (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/text.php?pil=atlpnsffc)
EDIT: Kudos to our local ABC affiliate for breaking into regular programming to report a possible tornado developing a good 5-10 minutes before our NWS issued the warning. They proved why they're #1 rated for a reason
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The East was not the only place that saw tornadoes yesterday. An EF-1 was confirmed in Oregon!! :blink:
Weather Service Confirms Tornado in Oregon (http://seattle.cbslocal.com/2013/06/14/weather-service-confirms-tornado-in-oregon/)
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The East was not the only place that saw tornadoes yesterday. An EF-1 was confirmed in Oregon!! :blink:
Weather Service Confirms Tornado in Oregon ([url]http://seattle.cbslocal.com/2013/06/14/weather-service-confirms-tornado-in-oregon/[/url])
I was quite shocked myself when I read about the tornado down in McMinnville (near Portland) but based on many Doppler radar sources that I've looked at, the system that produced the EF1 tornado was just a brief but heavy rain shower and not much else. No lightning, no reports of thunder, just rain :blink:
Oregon is no stranger to tornadoes. Back in 1972, Portland and Vancouver got hit by an F-3 tornado, and in late 2010, a weak EF-2 tornado hit Aumsville. In the summertime, the northwest gets a few severe thunderstorms here and there, but tornadoes are quite a rare sight to see in this part of the US. As for myself, I've never seen one tornado in my lifetime, and I probably will never get to :P
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The East was not the only place that saw tornadoes yesterday. An EF-1 was confirmed in Oregon!! :blink:
Weather Service Confirms Tornado in Oregon ([url]http://seattle.cbslocal.com/2013/06/14/weather-service-confirms-tornado-in-oregon/[/url])
wow
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A tornado touched down near Puyallup, Washington this morning! :o
http://www.king5.com/news/local/Strong-windstorm--Western-Washington-weekend-225716201.html (http://www.king5.com/news/local/Strong-windstorm--Western-Washington-weekend-225716201.html)
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(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews12_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews04_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews05_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews06_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
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(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-28_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
(http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews07_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg)
This may be the Weather Channel's first "localized" coverage!
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The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley under a Moderate Risk of severe weather for Sunday. Things may definitely get interesting.
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Eastern IL and most of IN has been upgraded to HIGH RISK. This is very rare in the month of November.
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HIGH RISK expanded to include the city of Chicago. MODERATE RISK also expanded as far east as Pittsburgh.
I hope everyone who lives in the Great Lakes region isn't tuning out today. It's shaping up to be a very dangerous day.
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PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCHES ISSUED FOR ALL OF IN/IL, PARTS OF MO, WI, AND MI
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)
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New one including southern MO, AR and TN
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0563.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0563.html)
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Well, the town of Washington, Illinois was hit by a strong EF4 tornado. 6 people dead.
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Severe weather is unfolding as I type this with multiple severe weather watches and warnings in effect.