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Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Severe Weather => Topic started by: Mr. Rainman on January 21, 2012, 01:47:42 PM

Title: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 21, 2012, 01:47:42 PM: Creating this thread as tomorrow looks like a busy day severe weather wise for Dixie Alley. SPC has a high-end slight risk out for a large part of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley...however, their outlook does cite that a moderate risk zone may be warranted tomorrow. If they do, expect these cities to be included:

Evansville
Bowling Green
Nashville
Memphis
Jackson
Birmingham

The probability outlook is posted below.

EDIT: Moderate Risk is out.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 03:27:30 PM: I had some time today, this is a detailed summary on the severe wx today. If I had a microphone, I would have just talked about it, but since I don't this is the best I could do.

Severe Weather Outlook For Sunday, January 22, 2012 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMDo0KAnwW4#ws)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on January 22, 2012, 03:57:01 PM: I can NOT wait! I love severe weather. I hope we have just as many EF5s and tornado outbreaks like last year, however I do not want to see the fatalities or excessive damage. I hope last year's events serves as a warning and reminder for people to take these storms more seriously.

For one, in my college severe storm preparedness is never talked about. For a university with 40,000 kids, we lack a PA system and are dependent on email to alert students. If a tornado or something were to strike here (my psych professor said this during lecture last year), we'd be in serious trouble because of lack of warnings. It doesn't help having large windows in every classroom building either. :/
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 22, 2012, 04:22:03 PM: Expect a tornado watch to be issued just west of the moderate risk zone by 6 PM CST as the approaching cold front triggers these storms. Supercells initially, and a squall line later in the evening. The fact that this is an overnight threat is particularly dangerous. Stay safe for those of you out in that region.

By the way, Tavores, what song is that?
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 04:27:18 PM: Quote from: Localonthe8s on January 22, 2012, 03:57:01 PM
I can NOT wait! I love severe weather. I hope we have just as many EF5s and tornado outbreaks like last year, however I do not want to see the fatalities or excessive damage. I hope last year's events serves as a warning and reminder for people to take these storms more seriously.

For one, in my college severe storm preparedness is never talked about. For a university with 40,000 kids, we lack a PA system and are dependent on email to alert students. If a tornado or something were to strike here (my psych professor said this during lecture last year), we'd be in serious trouble because of lack of warnings. It doesn't help having large windows in every classroom building either. :/

Although I understand where you're coming from here, I don't want anything similar to what happened last Spring to happen again, my hope is that will be once in a lifetime event. I would hate for 2012 to get off to a faster pace than 2011 on tornadoes not even being a full month into the year.

Quote from: plane852 on January 22, 2012, 04:22:03 PM
Expect a tornado watch to be issued just west of the moderate risk zone by 6 PM CST as the approaching cold front triggers these storms. Supercells initially, and a squall line later in the evening. The fact that this is an overnight threat is particularly dangerous. Stay safe for those of you out in that region.

By the way, Tavores, what song is that?

Easy title to remember, it's "3rd Force" by 3rd Force.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on January 22, 2012, 04:39:08 PM: Mike Seidel is here in Memphis, reporting on the storms. It's gonna get bad tonight.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 22, 2012, 04:50:58 PM: Quote from: Localonthe8s on January 22, 2012, 03:57:01 PM
I can NOT wait! I love severe weather. I hope we have just as many EF5s and tornado outbreaks like last year, however I do not want to see the fatalities or excessive damage. I hope last year's events serves as a warning and reminder for people to take these storms more seriously.

Unless all the EF5 tornadoes touch down in a big open field, I don't see how we can have a season like last year and at the same time see less damage and fatalities. :thinking: Fatalities could be lower if people prepare and are more aware, but excessive damage will likely still be prominent if we have a severe weather season like last year.

Quote from: Localonthe8s on January 22, 2012, 03:57:01 PM
For one, in my college severe storm preparedness is never talked about. For a university with 40,000 kids, we lack a PA system and are dependent on email to alert students. If a tornado or something were to strike here (my psych professor said this during lecture last year), we'd be in serious trouble because of lack of warnings. It doesn't help having large windows in every classroom building either. :/

That's a problem. Here at OU, we're obviously prepared (can you imagine why? :P). In the dorms, there is a PA system that will alert everyone to seek shelter. Tornado sirens will, of course, also be used. And a lot of our lecture halls have no windows, so they would definitely serve as a good shelter space.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 04:52:59 PM: Quote from: Trevor on January 22, 2012, 04:39:08 PM
Mike Seidel is here in Memphis, reporting on the storms. It's gonna get bad tonight.

Stay safe and alert, it looks to get nasty pretty rapidly within the next couple of hours.

The saving graces I see for my neck of the woods is that most of the activity will be coming in overnight into the early morning hours and right now were stuck in a cold wedge. It's expected to break, but i don't know if it will break in time to destabilize conditions here for severe weather overnight tonight into Monday morning.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 22, 2012, 04:54:36 PM: UND has a siren system and a text system that automatically pushes tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings to your phone. And seeing how flat it is here (and probably in Oklahoma), you can see the thing coming from miles away. It's common practice to drive out to the airport to see if you can see the tornado coming - assuming it's weak, of course.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on January 22, 2012, 05:24:36 PM: Unfortunately, I foresee 2012 being active again just like last year, because we're coming out of a La Niña winter again. There are ongoing research studies saying that overall severe weather activity increases in the United States when we come out of a La Niña winter. The jet stream is further north than normal, which allows for the development of severe weather across the southern and middle portions of the country. In contrast, the jet stream is further south toward the Gulf Coast after an El Niño winter, which reduces the risk of severe weather for the rest of the country to the north.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 22, 2012, 06:25:30 PM: The 5th watch SPC issues this entire year is a PDS...holy cow.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0005_overview.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 08:02:24 PM: Impressive for January, I wasn't expecting them to go that far with the tornado watches. New Meso discussion says tornado threat is increasing west of MEM. (Eastern AR)

EDIT: I was wondering if the PDS Tornado Watch was going to make Dr. Forbes increase his TOR CON numbers, looks like he's gone from a 6 to an 8 now.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0048.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...

VALID 230048Z - 230145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AR AND INCIPIENT
REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING...WITH PROBABLE
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO NERN AR.

AS OF 0045Z...LEAD BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDED IN A NNE-SSW
ORIENTATION FROM RANDOLPH TO COLUMBIA COUNTIES. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH INITIAL TORNADO WARNINGS
HAVING BEEN RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS S-CNTRL AR. MODIFIED 00Z
LZK/SHV/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF 750-1250 J/KG IS PREVALENT AHEAD
OF THIS BAND FROM S-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL AR. WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NOW IN
EXCESS OF 500-600 M2/S2...EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VERY LARGE
HODOGRAPHS BREEDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED/LONG-TRACKED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 33599294 34599229 35819144 36129113 36209053 35869026
34919056 33629133 33479170 33309213 33449260 33599294
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 08:46:41 PM: We got our first confirmed tornado on the ground hitting Fordyce, AR.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on January 22, 2012, 08:57:53 PM: This is interesting but I don't have a TV to watch the coverage. Is there anything online I can watch in regards to this outbreak?
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 09:06:03 PM: Quote from: Localonthe8s on January 22, 2012, 08:57:53 PM
This is interesting but I don't have a TV to watch the coverage. Is there anything online I can watch in regards to this outbreak?

KATV is running a live stream on the severe weather.
http://www.katv.com/ (http://www.katv.com/)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 09:07:37 PM: 3rd Tornado Watch might be on the way

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0049.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 09:24:15 PM: Quote from: Weatherlover on January 22, 2012, 09:06:03 PM
Quote from: Localonthe8s on January 22, 2012, 08:57:53 PM
This is interesting but I don't have a TV to watch the coverage. Is there anything online I can watch in regards to this outbreak?

KATV is running a live stream on the severe weather.
[url]http://www.katv.com/[/url] ([url]http://www.katv.com/[/url])

Here's some more
http://www.wreg.com/ (http://www.wreg.com/)
http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/ (http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 09:37:25 PM: Storm west of DeWitt, AR looks ugly.

EDIT: It's now moving NW of Dewitt, AR so it looks like they will avoid a direct hit.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 22, 2012, 09:41:40 PM: Tornado near Wheatly, AR, is looking to move just north of downtown Memphis.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on January 22, 2012, 09:51:07 PM: What are the chances of this twister hitting downtown Memphis?
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 22, 2012, 09:56:08 PM: Judge for yourself...the warnings are in place, the red dot is centered on downtown Memphis. I'm not sure, but I'd say there's greater than a 50% chance that it could happen.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on January 22, 2012, 10:20:41 PM: I'm just northeast of TMEM. Nothing in the way of severe weather yet.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 22, 2012, 10:51:13 PM: Just when I thought the tornado threat was taking a little breather....

(http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/1135/stormwj.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/10/stormwj.png/)

Here comes two new warnings...

(http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/7907/storm1.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/151/storm1.png/)

Regardless, the hail threat is just as bad right now.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 22, 2012, 11:03:11 PM: New tornado warning out...and Memphis is in the dead center of it.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Zach on January 22, 2012, 11:10:04 PM: Interesting how the velocity isn't mixing the colors a whole lot..
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Donovan on January 22, 2012, 11:42:58 PM: At the surface there hasn't been much rotation. It's mostly been in the mid-upper levels. The image below is SVR Tilt 2.5 opposed to 0.5 being at the low levels.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Lightning on January 23, 2012, 12:20:31 AM: NORTHWEST ALABAMA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM UNTIL 600 AM CST.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 5. WATCH NUMBER 5 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1100PM CST. CONTINUE…WW 6…

DISCUSSION…PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE EWD OVERNIGHT FROM NW MS/WRN TN TO MIDDLE TN AND NW AL…WHILE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS/CONFLUENCE BAND. A VERY STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA…WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF BOTH SUPERCELL AND QLCS TORNADOES WHERE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS. EVENTUALLY…THE NE EXTENT OF THE TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME LIMITED BY THE RESIDUAL
COOL/STABLE AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE FROM NE AL/NW GA INTO ERN TN.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 23, 2012, 06:07:10 AM: Reports have been coming out that a community called Paradise City in Trussville, AL has been completely destroyed. Many people are trapped and hospitals/Emergency Management are going to their mass causalities plan.

Debris Ball heading toward Maplesville, AL. Not good, not good at all. :no: :(
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on January 23, 2012, 08:45:57 AM: I was in the middle of the Tornado Warning south of Memphis. It was awful. It bowed out right before it hit us, so we got 70+ MPH straight line winds and quarter size hail. Luckily, our power didn't go out.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Lightning on January 23, 2012, 05:59:43 PM: My area, it's April 27th all over again. :cry: :(
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 23, 2012, 06:05:25 PM: Unfortunately, for those that thought the 2012 severe weather season couldn't possibly be as bad as last year's, you may want to think again. As Patrick said, coming out of another La Nina winter is really going to trigger the storms. And it's only January!
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Pop Light Brown on January 24, 2012, 12:32:17 PM: Several tornadoes were confirmed in central Alabama, including an EF3 near Koffman in Tuscaloosa County.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BMX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BMX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1)

More surveys are being conducted today.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 24, 2012, 12:52:53 PM: *Severe Threat for the Deep South today*

I think the primary "threat" will be heavy rainfall (which we desperately need, so bring it on!), but we may need to watch out for some hail and tornadoes.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Pop Light Brown on January 25, 2012, 09:43:14 AM: Tornado Watch 15 is in effect until 3 pm for a good chunk of western Louisiana and extreme SE Texas. I would not be surprised if additional watches were issued later this evening for areas east of this watch box.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Pop Light Brown on January 25, 2012, 04:07:11 PM: Tornado Watch 16 is in effect for nearly all of Louisiana, SE Arkansas and western/SW Mississippi until 9 pm CST.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 25, 2012, 05:52:33 PM: Possibly the severe thunderstorm warning with the longest "affect areas" paragraph I have ever seen. O_O

Quote
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SIMMESPORT...MOREAUVILLE...BUNKIE...
EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...VILLE PLATTE...TURKEY CREEK...MAMOU...BASILE...
SOUTHERN RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...GLENMORA...CHENEYVILLE...
ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...MORROW...BAYOU CURRENT...PALMETTO...OPELOUSAS...
LEONVILLE...EUNICE...
WESTERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...RAYNE...MERMENTAU...IOTA...CROWLEY...CHURCH
POINT...
ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...REEVES...OBERLIN...OAKDALE...MITTIE...KINDER...
ELIZABETH...
EASTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SUGARTOWN...RAGLEY...DRY CREEK...
CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT...WESTLAKE...
VINTON...SULPHUR...MOSS BLUFF...LAKE CHARLES...IOWA...HAYES...DE
QUINCY...
CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE...SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE...LACASSINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...KLONDIKE...GRAND
LAKE...
JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...JENNINGS...FENTON...ELTON...
WESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...PECAN ISLAND...KAPLAN...GUEYDAN...
SOUTHEASTERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES PITKIN...
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Donovan on February 02, 2012, 11:54:20 PM: Impressive Cell out in Kansas tonight. 70+dbz on reflective and some rotation.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on February 03, 2012, 09:38:54 AM: Interesting how Rayne is mentioned In the warning. That place got trashed by a deadly tornado last year
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 22, 2012, 04:23:34 PM: Watch coming soon...

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0141.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN MS...THE NRN HALF OF AL...PARTS OF SRN
TN...NWRN GA...FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222013Z - 222215Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE NS TO MS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED HEADLINE

CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PAIRED WITH SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES REVEAL A CLEARLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...BENEATH
WHAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM/SLOWLY MOISTEN...THE EWD SPREAD OF COOLER
AIR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN -- AND THUS LOCATION OF A CONCENTRATED THREAT AREA REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...INCREASINGLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS
PROVIDING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS. THIS -- AND THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS --
SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

ATTM...CU FIELD APPEARS MOST ROBUST ACROSS NERN MS AND EWD ACROSS
NRN AL AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH THIS AREA ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND NEAR THE SRN
BOUNDARY OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSING
WAVE...THIS AREA APPEARS ATTM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY INITIATION ZONE
FOR INITIAL CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 02/22/2012

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32728894 32918977 33399003 34588919 35638555 35588375
34828331 32988640 32688806 32728894
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Zach on February 22, 2012, 06:29:16 PM: Okay, where's the severe weather in this one?! :blink: :wacko:

Code: [Select]
WUUS54 KMRX 222255 SVRMRX TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-073-089-093- 105-107-121-123-129-143-145-151-153-155-163-171-173-179-222345- /O.NEW.KMRX.SV.W.0003.120222T2255Z-120222T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 555 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... BLEDSOE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... NORTHERN BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... CARTER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... COCKE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... GRAINGER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... GREENE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... HAMBLEN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... HANCOCK COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... HAWKINS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... LOUDON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MEIGS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... RHEA COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... EXTREME SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... SEQUATCHIE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... SEVIER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... EXTREME WESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... UNICOI COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... UNION COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 645 PM EST/545 PM CST/ * AT 546 PM EST/446 PM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SNEEDVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF MCMINNVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...ROGERSVILLE...CLINTON...ROCKWOOD...OAK RIDGE...MORRISTOWN...KINGSTON...JEFFERSON CITY...PIKEVILLE... KNOXVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...LENOIR CITY...DANDRIDGE...DAYTON... LOUDON...GREENEVILLE...ELIZABETHTON...ALCOA AND SEVIERVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. && LAT...LON 3554 8549 3577 8525 3576 8500 3583 8477 3593 8469 3608 8480 3660 8295 3624 8195 3600 8262 3606 8264 3595 8279 3523 8499 TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 292DEG 57KT 3653 8295 3576 8563 $$
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on February 22, 2012, 06:40:53 PM: I was just looking at that. It could be a blanket warning (issued way in advance), or somebody really screwed up. The NWS in Morristown really hasn't specified just yet.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Zach on February 22, 2012, 07:07:12 PM: Quote from: Trevor on February 22, 2012, 06:40:53 PM
I was just looking at that. It could be a blanket warning (issued way in advance), or somebody really screwed up. The NWS in Morristown really hasn't specified just yet.
I'm under the speculation that an untrained forecaster issued that warning.. it wasn't signed, it expired with areas not getting rain at all, it included 30 counties (3x the recommended!), and it took them 9 minutes to execute actions?
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 22, 2012, 07:46:49 PM: Severe T'Storm/Tornado Watch Still Possible for TN & AL

via SPC (Storm Prediction Center) Mesoscale Discussion 143

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0143.gif)

Quote
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AL...SE TN...FAR NW AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222349Z - 230115Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FROM MIDDLE TO ERN TN SWD ACROSS NRN AL AND FAR NW GA.
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES FROM 250 TO 750
J/KG. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH WSR-88D-VWPS SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 70 TO 80 KT. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO
7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
CORES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. EWD STORM MOTION OF 40 KT WILL HELP
CREATE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE BECOMES NEARLY
CONTINUOUS. SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
EXIST ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AND
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 02/22/2012

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 35928438 36378455 36558536 35888624 34918734 34258779
33898760 33648692 33748625 34138579 34718521 35348467
35928438
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 23, 2012, 09:50:23 PM: Looking at this DP loop, DPs in the mid 50s to low 60s are starting to move northward so this cap over the SE/TN Valley should start breaking over the next couple of hours now that were getting more moisture involved. Heck, if were not gonna get any snow this winter, I guess we might as well see some thunderstorms. That's about the only thing we have seen an abundance of this winter.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/loopsh.php?based=wxproducts/surface/dewpoint&loopid=Dewpoint+Temperature (http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/loopsh.php?based=wxproducts/surface/dewpoint&loopid=Dewpoint+Temperature)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Donovan on February 24, 2012, 12:41:26 AM: Quote from: Zach on February 22, 2012, 06:29:16 PM
Okay, where's the severe weather in this one?! :blink: :wacko:

Code: [Select]
WUUS54 KMRX 222255 SVRMRX TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-073-089-093- 105-107-121-123-129-143-145-151-153-155-163-171-173-179-222345- /O.NEW.KMRX.SV.W.0003.120222T2255Z-120222T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 555 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... BLEDSOE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... NORTHERN BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... CARTER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... COCKE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... GRAINGER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... GREENE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... HAMBLEN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... HANCOCK COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... HAWKINS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... LOUDON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MEIGS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... RHEA COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... ROANE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... EXTREME SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... SEQUATCHIE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... SEVIER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... EXTREME WESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... UNICOI COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... UNION COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 645 PM EST/545 PM CST/ * AT 546 PM EST/446 PM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SNEEDVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF MCMINNVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...ROGERSVILLE...CLINTON...ROCKWOOD...OAK RIDGE...MORRISTOWN...KINGSTON...JEFFERSON CITY...PIKEVILLE... KNOXVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...LENOIR CITY...DANDRIDGE...DAYTON... LOUDON...GREENEVILLE...ELIZABETHTON...ALCOA AND SEVIERVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. && LAT...LON 3554 8549 3577 8525 3576 8500 3583 8477 3593 8469 3608 8480 3660 8295 3624 8195 3600 8262 3606 8264 3595 8279 3523 8499 TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 292DEG 57KT 3653 8295 3576 8563 $$
Oh wow! That was probably a forecaster error or a computer error. Look's like they may have been trying to issue and advisory for the storms and selected the wrong tool. :clap: (HA)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 24, 2012, 06:32:50 AM: Whoever the forecaster is who issued those warnings sure has been getting a lot of grief at other weather forums, he's been getting chewed out over this.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on February 24, 2012, 07:29:46 AM: That warning violated the NWS Directives and goes against everything I've been trained to do. You're not supposed to issue any severe thunderstorm, tornado, or flash flood warning that touches more than 12 counties. The training I received at Norman recommended to do 5-10 at most. That warning touched 30 counties, so an area about the size of Maryland heard it! How is that warning a service to the public? Furthermore, there wasn't anything in the warning worthy of having one in the first place. They have no verification at all for it, which looks awful given how the NWS needs to keep their image good as they face budget cuts ahead from Congress.

Take a look at the radar image I've attached below. Everyone in the Blacksburg office saw it and collectively went: :facepalm:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 24, 2012, 10:14:56 AM: A moderate risk has been added for Northeast SC, Eastern NC, and Southeastern Virginia today per Storm Prediction Center.

Tornado Watches are in effect for the following areas right now.

TOR WATCH #35
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA

TOR WATCH #36
NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on February 24, 2012, 11:22:44 AM: They need to fire the genius who posted that warning
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 24, 2012, 11:41:15 AM: Pretty bad at Hartsfield Int'l right now

(http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/5264/capture20120224113856.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/687/capture20120224113856.jpg/)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 27, 2012, 04:55:57 PM: I haven't been looking at any models for myself lately, but what I'm hearing from other knowledgeable members (severe wx isn't really my expertise when it comes to the models) on other forums, I don't like what I'm hearing about severe wx this week. Sounds like it could be insane, that puts a bad feeling in my stomach. :sick:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on February 28, 2012, 02:15:19 AM: Memphis is in the 10% tornado risk today. Looks like this low bringing heavy snow to the Dakotas and Minnesota in the next few days is gonna have a pretty impressive cold front with it. Looks like a decent tornado risk, and an even better strong wind risk.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on February 29, 2012, 02:45:46 PM: Big severe weather day. Moderate risk out with a 15% chance of tornadoes and a 45% chance of damaging winds for all of Tennessee.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on March 01, 2012, 02:38:12 AM: March 2nd is going to be a very interesting day for the same regions affected yesterday: there is a moderate risk out stretching from Alabama into the Ohio Valley, with a huge 45% severe probability. Very strong wind events and significant and long-tracked tornadoes could be the name of the game. This is certainly a system to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 06:48:02 AM: TOR CON Numbers from Dr. Forbes

Friday March 2
AL north - 6
AL central night - 4
AR northeast - 3
GA north night - 3
IL south - 4
IN south - 5
KY central - 8
KY west - 5
KY east - 6
LA north - 3
LA central, southeast night - 3
MO southeast - 3 to 4
MS north - 5
MS central night - 3
NC west night - 3
OH - 3
Southern OH - 4
TN north-central - 8
TN west - 4
TN east - 6
TN south-central - 6
WV west - 4
Other areas - less than 2
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 08:13:41 AM: HIGH Risk has been added via SPC

KY and Central TN are the battlezone.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif)

EDIT: Not that this is surprising, but a lot of schools are either closed or dismissing early today across KY, TN, and AL.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 10:34:04 AM: And so the action begins....two tornado warnings out and a new tornado watch out for NE AL/NW GA/E. TN
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 11:02:50 AM: Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch #57

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0057_radar.gif)

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES NORTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...

DISCUSSION...A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS
NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR...FEATURING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500
J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600
M2/S2. TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER SERN
MO/W-CNTRL IL ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 02:34:49 PM: Updated TOR: CON Numbers

Friday March 2
AL north - 7
AL central, southwest night - 4
GA north - 5
GA central night - 4
IL south - 8
IN south half - 8
KY central, east - 9
KY west - 4
LA northeast, central - 3
LA south night - 3
MO southeast - 4
MS north - 7
MS central - 5
MS south night - 3
NC west - 5
NC central night - 3 to 4
OH south - 8
OH central, northeast - 3 to 4
PA west - 3 to 4 evening/night
SC west, central - 3 to 4
TN middle, east - 9
TN west - 4
VA southwest - 5
VA central night - 3 to 4
WV west, central - 4 to 5
other areas - less than 2

Tornado Watch #59 (Not a PDS)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0059.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0059.html)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on March 02, 2012, 02:42:54 PM: Is there a TorCon index for NJ? We're under the severe weather zone (as well as PA) too
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 02:51:46 PM: Quote from: Localonthe8s on March 02, 2012, 02:42:54 PM
Is there a TorCon index for NJ? We're under the severe weather zone (as well as PA) too

For NJ, no, but you can keep track of the TOR CON Forecast here. PA is a 3-4 for overnight tonight. It might be safe to assume it will be about a 2 or 3 for NJ though.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/daily-torcon-forecast_2011-07-11 (http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/daily-torcon-forecast_2011-07-11)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 03:44:45 PM: Possible tornado on the ground approaching Cincinnati, OH metro area. :(

EDIT: 4:44PM EDT - Tornado Warning for Nashville, TN metro area.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 05:05:20 PM: WSMV-TV IN Nashville, Former TWC OCM Lisa Spencer is discussing the tornadic storm going over the Nashville area. You can hear the hail also. :o

http://www.wsmv.com/category/213709/news-live-stream (http://www.wsmv.com/category/213709/news-live-stream)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Pop Light Brown on March 02, 2012, 05:14:31 PM: Quote from: Weatherlover on March 02, 2012, 05:05:20 PM
WSMV-TV IN Nashville, Former TWC OCM Lisa Spencer is discussing the tornadic storm going over the Nashville area. You can hear the hail also. :o

[url]http://www.wsmv.com/category/213709/news-live-stream[/url] ([url]http://www.wsmv.com/category/213709/news-live-stream[/url])

I heard it too on WTVF's live stream.

Sad news: Mayor of Marysville, IN says the entire town has been destroyed by a tornado.

Meanwhile, storms are firing up in MS and NE Louisiana.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on March 02, 2012, 05:27:15 PM: I had a bad feeling this would be a high risk situation. My thoughts and prayers to everyone in the line of severe weather. Please, stay safe.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Zach on March 02, 2012, 06:08:04 PM: This right here is ~~my swag~~ a perfect example of a debris ball from a tornado on radar.. this looks to definitely be higher than an EF-1 if you ask me.. :hmm:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: TWCCraig on March 02, 2012, 06:32:02 PM: Quote from: Zach on March 02, 2012, 06:08:04 PM
This right here is ~~my swag~~ a perfect example of a debris ball from a tornado on radar.. this looks to definitely be higher than an EF-1 if you ask me.. :hmm:
Oh no doubt, that's an impressive hook echo.

Meanwhile, these storms will roll into my area weakening somewhat to the point where they won't be severe but will still be thunderstorms. Unfortunately, onshore flow will destroy the convective cells of the thunderstorms by the time they get here weakening them just to thunderstorms.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 07:24:09 PM: Boy oh boy, I got a looooong night ahead of me. I can forget about getting sleep tonight because I'll be worrying about whether or not a tornado is gonna rip my house to shreds. :( The parts in red is what concerns me.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN-CNTRL-NERN AL / W-CNTRL AND NWRN GA /
FAR SERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 59...61...63...

VALID 022341Z - 030145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
59...61...63...CONTINUES.

TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF AL AND
WRN-NWRN GA. ASIDE FROM THE THREAT OF TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT/...SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO POSE AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS RISK.

23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE UNIMPEDED WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ACROSS AL AND MOVING INTO WRN PARTS OF GA --AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER
NWRN MS. 3 HR CHANGE IN SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SHOW A DECREASE OF
2-7 DEG F AND A 2 DEG F INCREASE...RESPECTIVELY. THE FORECAST
CONTINUED TREND IN LOWERING SURFACE SPREADS AND LESS SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SEEMINGLY PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ACCOMPANY A STRENGTHENING IN THE LLJ
/40-55 KTS/ FROM SWRN AND W-CNTRL AL NEWD INTO NRN GA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL TORNADO
EPISODE FROM CNTRL AND E-CNTRL AL NEWD INTO N-CNTRL GA. THIS
SCENARIO IS AT LEAST SUPPORTED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT BY THE LATEST
STORM-SCALE MODEL ENSEMBLE /SSEO/. AS SUCH...SCATTERED DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL POSE AN ATTENDANT ISOLD TORNADO THREAT --WITH
PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.

..SMITH.. 03/02/2012
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2012, 08:28:03 PM: Debris ball developing on supercell thunderstorm just east of Felton, GA. Tornado has been confirmed on the ground by storm spotters.

Areas next in line
Dallas, GA
Marietta, GA
Kennesaw, GA
Powder Springs, GA
Maybe Northern edge of Atlanta
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on March 03, 2012, 12:53:07 AM: Reports coming out at 43 people have died from a string of tornadoes in SW Indiana/Northern Kentucky
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on March 03, 2012, 01:40:41 PM: Remember what I said back in January here about this year's potential for severe weather? If we're seeing everything coming true already with what I predicted, think of what it will be like later in April.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on March 03, 2012, 04:47:49 PM: Quote from: phw115wvwx on March 03, 2012, 01:40:41 PM
Remember what I said back in January here about this year's potential for severe weather? If we're seeing everything coming true already with what I predicted, think of what it will be like later in April.
I don't get it. Are you saying tornadoes will be just as bad this year from last year?
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on March 03, 2012, 05:29:37 PM: Quote from: Localonthe8s on March 03, 2012, 04:47:49 PM
I don't get it. Are you saying tornadoes will be just as bad this year from last year?
I said that I expected this year to be just like last year in terms of severe weather, including tornadoes. We're coming out of a La Niña winter, which has already been linked through research to more severe weather activity over the United States.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 03, 2012, 05:38:59 PM: If it keeps it up it will be and I'm sure a lot of folks who became homeless from last year's chaos and yesterday's chaos would strongly agree they don't want this crap to keep moving at the same pace as or worse than 2011. This is why I don't like mild/warm winters. I know there a people who dislike or hate cold/dry air during the winter, but it has it's benefits when you want to prevent as many tornadoes raging on steroids from occurring in January, February and early March.

I got very lucky once again, I had a possible tornado hit just west of me in Dallas, GA and on top of that there was a lot of "junk" convection that wouldn't stop coming in here hours well ahead of the main storms, I'm pretty sure that stabilized things a bit, but I know sooner or later our luck is gonna run out again. UGH, I wish this stupid La Nina would high tail it out of here now, it's truly overstayed it's welcome. What's worse is we might have to deal with a third year of Nina. :wall:

Sheesh, is it impossible to have a year where there's no La Nina or El Nino involved? I can't remember what one was like right about now. :P

EDIT: Here's the statement on the tornado that was a close call for me. It was an EF3 when it was in Haralson Co. Paulding Co. (where Dallas, GA is) hasn't been classified yet. (They were hit by the same storm that hit Haralson Co.)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...PRELIMINARY TORNADO REPORT FOR MARCH 2 2012...

LOCATION: HARALSON
COUNTY RATING: EF-3
WIND SPEED: 165 MPH

PRELIMINARY INFORMATION IS THAT AN EF3 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN
HARALSON COUNTY WITH EF3 DAMAGE ALONG BETHLEHEM CHURCH ROAD WHERE A
REPAIR SHOP WAS DESTROYED AND NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWNED. OTHER
DAMAGE IN HARALSON COUNTY INCLUDED A METAL ROOF BLOWN OFF A MOBILE
HOME...A CHURCH STEEPLE BLOWN OFF ON MOUNT ZION EAST ROAD...A MOBILE
HOME PUSHED OF ITS FOUNDATION ALONG BETHLEHEM CHURCH ROAD...AND IN
THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 27 AND HARPERS CREEK ROAD NUMEROUS TREES
AND TELEPHONE POLES WERE SNAPPED.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on March 03, 2012, 08:35:54 PM: Quote from: phw115wvwx on March 03, 2012, 05:29:37 PM
Quote from: Localonthe8s on March 03, 2012, 04:47:49 PM
I don't get it. Are you saying tornadoes will be just as bad this year from last year?
I said that I expected this year to be just like last year in terms of severe weather, including tornadoes. We're coming out of a La Niña winter, which has already been linked through research to more severe weather activity over the United States.
Makes sense. Also notice how more and more of these violent tornadoes are hitting eastwards. I am expecting more violent tornadoes to occur in the eastern half of the USA, particularly in the mid-atlantic given the warm and humid temps we've been dealing with (or will be since its supposed to hit 72 already on Thursday!)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 03, 2012, 10:38:11 PM: March 2-3, 2012 vs April 27-28, 2011

(http://a7.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/417157_10150649572340842_65676345841_9087276_1483132341_n.jpg)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on March 05, 2012, 02:00:15 AM: I've been looking at high risk zones historically throughout the last 10-15 years, and it seems like the most dangerous weather outbreaks are starting to occur more and more east of the Mississippi. Maybe I'm crazy to suggest this...but could Tornado Alley be shifting eastward?
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on March 19, 2012, 10:57:33 PM: A couple pulse storms pushed through my area this evening, and I was allowed to issue two warnings on them (my 6th and 7th for my career). One already has verified with quarter-sized hail, and the other one is still under investigation. Both storms really pushed up quickly leaving me little time to warn them, and I'm still learning how to make the warning process go faster.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 20, 2012, 02:47:07 PM: Looks to be another active day across the South again only further east into LA.

(http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/6011/tw92.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/824/tw92.png/)

Quote
WOUS64 KWNS 201443
WOU2

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 92
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TORNADO WATCH 92 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-031-053-069-081-085-115-119-
202200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0092.120320T1445Z-120320T2200Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE
BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU
CAMERON DE SOTO JEFFERSON DAVIS
NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE
VERNON WEBSTER

TXC199-241-245-351-361-403-405-419-457-202200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0092.120320T1445Z-120320T2200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON
NEWTON ORANGE SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER

GMZ430-432-450-452-202200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0092.120320T1445Z-120320T2200Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

SABINE LAKE

CALCASIEU LAKE

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on April 03, 2012, 04:15:58 PM: Really concerned about the folks in the Dallas area. There is now a tornado warning in Irving, TX. Garland and Arlington got hit. I am trying to speak to family who live in that area and no answer...hopefully it's just the electricity gone out
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Lightning on April 03, 2012, 06:40:53 PM: I just heard that there have been no injuries reported associated with the tornado outbreak in the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area.

There are numerous tornado warnings for counties in northeast Texas, while the threat looks like it's over for the Dallas/Fort Worth area as drier air moves in behind the front.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Lightning on April 03, 2012, 06:46:14 PM: Quote from: plane852 on March 05, 2012, 02:00:15 AM
I've been looking at high risk zones historically throughout the last 10-15 years, and it seems like the most dangerous weather outbreaks are starting to occur more and more east of the Mississippi. Maybe I'm crazy to suggest this...but could Tornado Alley be shifting eastward?
Idk, there are several "tornado alleys" in the country, not just the one in the heartland of the country. There is also "Dixie Alley", as well as the "Ohio Valley Alley", but they can happen anywhere at anytime. They occur in all 50 states.

You wouldn't think they would occur often in New England, which they don't, but in 1953, one hit in the Worcester, Massachussetts area and killed 90 people and there was another in that state in June of last year.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 03, 2012, 07:05:34 PM: Wild stuff in Dallas, I heard about the tornadoes on the local news a few hours ago. My jaw dropped seeing those semi trailers being tossed around in the air.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: TWCCraig on April 03, 2012, 08:23:32 PM: Quote from: TWCC_Lightning on April 03, 2012, 06:46:14 PM
Quote from: plane852 on March 05, 2012, 02:00:15 AM
I've been looking at high risk zones historically throughout the last 10-15 years, and it seems like the most dangerous weather outbreaks are starting to occur more and more east of the Mississippi. Maybe I'm crazy to suggest this...but could Tornado Alley be shifting eastward?
Idk, there are several "tornado alleys" in the country, not just the one in the heartland of the country. There is also "Dixie Alley", as well as the "Ohio Valley Alley", but they can happen anywhere at anytime. They occur in all 50 states.

You wouldn't think they would occur often in New England, which they don't, but in 1953, one hit in the Worcester, Massachussetts area and killed 90 people and there was another in that state in June of last year.
I think New England and the northeast fall right behind the heartland, "Dixie Alley", "Ohio Valley Alley", and other places in the mid-west for most tornadoes. The western US would probably have the least tornadoes. If you think about it, during the late spring/summer, the northeast has almost a similar setup compared to the mid-west in the spring, we have cool, mountainous terrain inland, warm-humid climate towards the coast; good for development and enhancement of thunderstorms. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on April 13, 2012, 05:00:29 AM: There is a High Risk of severe thunderstorms for Saturday. This is only the second time in SPC's history that it has issued a High Risk on Day 2 (the first time being in April of 2006). Regardless, it's gonna be an exciting day, at least for those of us outside the risk zone. Stay safe, whoever is in the system's path.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Donovan on April 13, 2012, 05:07:49 PM: Norman, OK and Cleveland County OK are under a tornado warning. Rotation is consistent through the vertical column.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: WeatherWitness on April 13, 2012, 05:38:01 PM: Just got back from being in the basement for about a half an hour. The sky looked very ominous prior to my evacuation downstairs.

And this is only day 1...
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 13, 2012, 09:14:49 PM: Wow, I haven't been keeping tabs on Saturday's event at all, I didn't know it was expected to be so terrible until today. :no:

@WeatherWitness - Good to hear you made it out ok Andy. :yes:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on April 14, 2012, 12:13:18 AM: I hope all of you in the Plains stay safe tomorrow. It's highly unusual to see SPC this aggressive on an event.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 14, 2012, 12:27:56 PM: Just an update on the risk today, the HIGH risk has been expanded, basically filling in the gap between the two high risk areas yesterday.

(http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/5451/day1otlk1300.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/40/day1otlk1300.gif/)

PDS Tornado Watch out for most of Central KS and parts of the central area of northern OK and the NE corner of TX.

(http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/2889/ww0165radar.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/835/ww0165radar.gif/)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Lightning on April 14, 2012, 02:40:29 PM: Quote from: phw115wvwx on April 14, 2012, 12:13:18 AM
It's highly unusual to see SPC this aggressive on an event.
Yep. I think April 27th of last year, when my area here in Alabama was hit so hard, was the last time they were this aggressive on an event. Despite the dramatic video of last week's tornadoes in the Dallas area, this may be much worse than that event 11 days ago was.

I am concerned about our own Matt Marron, who lives in Omaha, which is included in the High Risk area. :fear:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 14, 2012, 07:26:12 PM: Latest TOR:CON Numbers for this weekend

(http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/38/picture1vp.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/404/picture1vp.png/)

(http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/2071/picture2yad.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/801/picture2yad.png/)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 14, 2012, 09:06:53 PM: One of the wedge tornadoes that developed about an hour ago

(http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/1949/capture20120414210129.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/204/capture20120414210129.jpg/)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 14, 2012, 11:11:04 PM: Not looking good for Wichita, KS :no:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Donovan on April 14, 2012, 11:26:09 PM: Quote from: Weatherlover on April 14, 2012, 11:11:04 PM
Not looking good for Wichita, KS :no:
Not one bit. Tornado in this frame was between Oaklawn and Haysville. Anyone Watching TWC saw/hear Sidell and the NWS office reaction there. :hmm:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 14, 2012, 11:35:42 PM: Looks like Wichita was spared a direct hit, but I can only imagine the folks in Andover, KS are sitting on pins and needles right now. For those who don't know they were hit by a F5 tornado back in April 1991.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on April 15, 2012, 02:00:12 PM: Five people have died in a small town in northwest Oklahoma from the tornadoes yesterday. :( Plenty of damage occurred in other states as well, and it appears the total number of tornadoes reported to the NWS was over 100. Here's an article with more details:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57414275/midwest-tornadoes-5-dead-29-hurt-in-okla/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57414275/midwest-tornadoes-5-dead-29-hurt-in-okla/)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on April 15, 2012, 07:25:14 PM: I saw a picture of the large wedge tornado that passed by Geneseo, KS. Boy, that thing looks like a monster! :o Fortunately, I have not heard anything about causalities in that one but sad to hear about what happened in Oklahoma. :( Must have been one close call for the Storm Prediction Center headquarters down there.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on April 27, 2012, 09:04:40 PM: A moderate risk day doesn't look like it churned out much of anything. Only 36 storm reports, evenly split between the MDT risk area and SLGT risk area in the Southeast. I think it's safe to say that today's forecast was:

(http://whatitslikeontheinside.com/uploaded_images/bustedplacard-728291.jpg)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on May 29, 2012, 12:11:19 PM: As far as I'm concerned it is really rare, but it appears the Northeast will be under a moderate risk within the next 10-20 minutes. Has anyone else seen a moderate risk in that area before?
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on May 29, 2012, 12:12:27 PM: I don't think I've ever seen a MDT Risk in the Northeast...in my almost 5 years of weather.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: TWCCraig on May 29, 2012, 02:23:26 PM: Quote from: Trevor on May 29, 2012, 12:12:27 PM
I don't think I've ever seen a MDT Risk in the Northeast...in my almost 5 years of weather.
It has actually happened before. It mainly happens in the summer where it's warmer, (like it is now). The last time this might have happened was June 2008.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on May 29, 2012, 04:55:01 PM: What's the torcon? Praying to see a twister :S
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on May 29, 2012, 09:41:05 PM: I'm becoming concerned for Friday here. I'm not as much of an expert in the severe weather department when it comes to the models, but from what I've been hearing it's not going to be pleasant. Last night one of our local mets said the setup was very potent and reminded him of something we would see in March rather than the first of June. Heck, even TWC has been red tagging the LF about for two days, never seen them keep up notice for that long before. :o

EDIT: In the meantime, we might have these to contend with. Who wants to bet $100 these storms fizzle out before they get to I-85?
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on May 29, 2012, 11:17:32 PM: Tomorrow is going to be a fun day for Oklahoma and surrounding areas, the entire Southeast looks to get in on the fun Thursday and Friday, and then another system moves across the northern tier of the country Sat/Sun. Gonna be a busy week.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on May 31, 2012, 09:31:30 PM: This crap is supposed to be our big severe weather event? What gives? :huh: :dunno:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on June 01, 2012, 03:08:53 PM: Apparently there's a tornado emergency for the DC area. Storms look real nasty out there.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: WeatherWitness on June 12, 2012, 04:34:21 PM: I think something is wrong with this SPC map. :blink: It's not that I disagree with a slight risk of severe weather covering a great deal of the country, but the lines and colors are way off. :wacko:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on June 12, 2012, 04:58:52 PM: Yup. There's a known issue with the SPC map. It's already been corrected. Somebody probably pressed the wrong button.

Someone jokingly commented on that photo on Facebook: "It must have been bring your kid to work day at the SPC!" :rofl2:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on June 14, 2012, 11:55:55 AM: Minneapolis/St. Paul could face an elevated tornado threat this afternoon and evening - SPC has a 10% chance of tornadoes right over them.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on June 28, 2012, 08:37:43 PM: Just as I thought SPC couldn't make any smaller of a watch, they issue a watch for a single cell for 5 counties in Indiana. You'd think just a few warnings would do.

The second image is that cell they are tracking. The outflow boundary/gust front on that thing is impressive!
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on June 29, 2012, 07:14:11 PM: Derecho moving into central WV........ Roughly 2/3rds of WV under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning........

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438.html)

Radar mosaic...... HUGE supercells in that derecho....... Echo tops measured 71,000 feet not too long ago.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php (http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on June 29, 2012, 08:36:37 PM: All but 5 counties in West Virginia is under a severe thunderstorm warning. Dang.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438_warnings.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438_warnings.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on June 29, 2012, 08:44:45 PM: Leading edge of the derecho is blasting into Roanoke, VA....... D.C, Charlottesville, VA and Lynchburg, VA will get it over the next 1-2 hours.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on June 30, 2012, 12:42:56 AM: 600 wind reports as of 11:41 PM CDT and the most severe portion of the derecho has finally pushed offshore. This was an impressive system. :blink:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on June 30, 2012, 12:48:43 AM: The airport at Roanoke, VA measured a wind gust of 81 mph from this derecho. There are numerous trees down, power lines down, trees on top of mobile homes and vehicles, structures caught on fire due to hanging power lines, and so much more that I can't remember all the calls I received. I'm stunned that my apartment didn't lose power and that my vehicle was unharmed. The Blacksburg NWS was forced to use generator power for the radar and the office during this event to keep everything running. My sounding from this evening had over 3,300 J/kg of CAPE (tons of instability due to the record heat today) and over 1,900 J/kg of DCAPE (energy for downdrafts, hence the very strong winds we experienced). I sure hope everyone is okay.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on June 30, 2012, 08:06:16 AM: Quote from: phw115wvwx on June 30, 2012, 12:48:43 AM
The airport at Roanoke, VA measured a wind gust of 81 mph from this derecho. There are numerous trees down, power lines down, trees on top of mobile homes and vehicles, structures caught on fire due to hanging power lines, and so much more that I can't remember all the calls I received. I'm stunned that my apartment didn't lose power and that my vehicle was unharmed. The Blacksburg NWS was forced to use generator power for the radar and the office during this event to keep everything running. My sounding from this evening had over 3,300 J/kg of CAPE (tons of instability due to the record heat today) and over 1,900 J/kg of DCAPE (energy for downdrafts, hence the very strong winds we experienced). I sure hope everyone is okay.
Hope y'all's ok. That thing was a beast.........
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on June 30, 2012, 10:39:19 AM: We had one very similar move through the Memphis area in 2003. Technically called the "Summer Storm of 2003 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memphis_Summer_Storm_of_2003)", most Memphians refer to it as Hurricane Elvis, because it packed winds that of a Category 2 hurricane. Which actually was a coincidence, because the next tropical entity to be named would have been an E.

I remember power being out at my house for 2 and a half weeks. The next few days after the storm, 100 degree temperatures. No A/C for 2/3rds of the city. Hardly no national news coverage. However, soon after, NYCs power went out for an hour and a half, and every national network is breaking in with breaking news. It's like they forget about us down here sometimes...
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: TWCmatthew on June 30, 2012, 10:49:15 AM: Quote from: phw115wvwx on June 30, 2012, 12:48:43 AM
The airport at Roanoke, VA measured a wind gust of 81 mph from this derecho. There are numerous trees down, power lines down, trees on top of mobile homes and vehicles, structures caught on fire due to hanging power lines, and so much more that I can't remember all the calls I received. I'm stunned that my apartment didn't lose power and that my vehicle was unharmed. The Blacksburg NWS was forced to use generator power for the radar and the office during this event to keep everything running. My sounding from this evening had over 3,300 J/kg of CAPE (tons of instability due to the record heat today) and over 1,900 J/kg of DCAPE (energy for downdrafts, hence the very strong winds we experienced). I sure hope everyone is okay.
Wow, that must've been an experience!
After a high of 100 and a dew point in the low 70's in Monroe on Thursday (low-mid 100's in other southern Michigan locals), a sounding from rucsoundings.com showed >8,000 j/kg of CAPE but a lot of CIN that evening. Nothing fired off due to the cap, but if it would've of, it could of had extremely intense energy to work with, not to mention almost 40 kts of 0-6km shear. The front then slipped just south of me, keeping the instability/shear into Indiana/Ohio yesterday, where the derecho began to intensify. What a close call!
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on June 30, 2012, 12:08:49 PM: I believe that same cell that produced the derechos slammed here in the Philadelphia/Atlantic City area. There was an 81mph wind gust reported at our town. I believe it...because that was the worst thunderstorm I have EVER experienced in my 15 years living in the shore.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on June 30, 2012, 08:36:16 PM: Apparently I'm under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow. :blink: Severe weather w/ temps in the low 100s, what a fun combination! :D I've never had severe weather when it was that hot.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 01, 2012, 03:53:25 PM: 35 warnings in effect right now across the United States, with the majority across the Southeast. This looks exciting. :thrilled:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 01, 2012, 06:50:01 PM: At current count, 43 severe thunderstorm warnings, 1 tornado warning, and 9 weather watches. No sign of this stuff letting up anytime soon.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on July 02, 2012, 12:55:14 PM: SPC considering watch for northern ND into northern MN...... plane, you might wanna keep an eye on this....... I've even heard derecho thrown about........ This could get active today........

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1362.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1362.html)

And from Dr. Forbes himself.......

TODAY'S WEATHER SYNOPSIS .... Yesterday's storms have "worked over" some of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states, so the worst activity today will likely be on the fringe areas not hit by those storms, and in the Northern Plains where there could be a tornado and in the MN-WI-MI region where there could be a bow echo or even derecho.

EDIT: Now we got the watch.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0454.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0454.html)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 02, 2012, 01:21:13 PM: Thanks for the heads up. It looks like a MDT risk situation may occur across Minnesota, but I'm a tad bit too far west to see any significant wind activity.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on July 02, 2012, 01:27:29 PM: SPC has significant hail over Grand Forks.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 04, 2012, 06:52:37 PM: A total of 87 warnings have been issued from the Blacksburg NWS office since the Friday night derecho. Most of them have already been verified with even deaths and injuries reported. There are still people without power right now.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on July 20, 2012, 12:59:26 AM: Holy Cow...... :blink: Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is the ONLY time I've ever seen the SPC go for an enhanced risk of severe storms on the D8 timeframe....... If this holds true, this could be a very deadly situation within a week or so........

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 20, 2012, 01:47:20 AM: Quote from: twcctornado77 on July 20, 2012, 12:59:26 AM
Holy Cow...... :blink: Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is the ONLY time I've ever seen the SPC go for an enhanced risk of severe storms on the D8 timeframe....... If this holds true, this could be a very deadly situation within a week or so........

[url]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/[/url] ([url]http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/[/url])

Not necessarily. My area was in an enhanced risk from Day 7 and when we got to Day 1, the probabilities were 15%. The only reason those areas are marked right now is because models are agreeing rather well with the scenario. It doesn't necessarily mean the situation will be deadly. Something to watch? Yes. Something to be concerned about? Right now...no.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on July 25, 2012, 01:59:01 PM: Here we go again....... DERECHO possible in the Northeast tomorrow......... Anyone who live in that part of the country needs to stay alert of forecasts...........
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 25, 2012, 09:21:23 PM: Current assessment of the situation puts in excess of 32 million people at risk of severe weather tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised to see up to a third of that witness a loss of power of 48 hours or longer.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on July 25, 2012, 10:28:49 PM: Quote from: plane852 on July 25, 2012, 09:21:23 PM
Current assessment of the situation puts in excess of 32 million people at risk of severe weather tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised to see up to a third of that witness a loss of power of 48 hours or longer.
I bet the SPC will pull the trigger and go high risk tomorrow.........
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on July 25, 2012, 10:41:32 PM: I doubt it...but it sure would be rare. A day to go down in the books for sure.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on July 26, 2012, 07:23:53 AM: I say anywhere from 500-700 wind reports today.........
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 26, 2012, 12:55:47 PM: 95% chance for a watch to be issued across Southern IN to OH, to Western PA.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1600.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1600.html)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 26, 2012, 01:28:04 PM: Massive watch is out.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0524.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0524.html)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Nathan - a.k.a. NWRGeek on July 26, 2012, 03:05:15 PM: A tornado watch has been posted for portions of northeast PA, east central and central NY, southern VT, western MA, and northwestern CT until 9:00 pm EDT.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0525.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0525.html)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 26, 2012, 06:27:48 PM: An interesting tidbit about tornadoes, courtesy of Dr. Forbes - July is seeing a record low number of tornadoes thanks to this large high pressure system causing misery across much of the Central United States. The average number for July is 110. The count this month is a mere 12 - 86 percent below average. If the total tornado count remains below 23 this month, this July will see the lowest amount of tornadoes ever for July.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Nathan - a.k.a. NWRGeek on July 26, 2012, 08:52:24 PM: For a portion of the forecasted derecho areas, it happened, such as OH, PA, NJ, southeast and central NY, and now into MD/DE. On the other hand, in New England, it was a huge stupid hype by the media, and the SPC. They deserve a :thumbdown: for this if something doesn't happen overnight.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 26, 2012, 08:57:53 PM: Quote from: Nathan - a.k.a. NWRGeek on July 26, 2012, 08:52:24 PM
For a portion of the forecasted derecho areas, it happened, such as OH, PA, NJ, southeast and central NY, and now into MD/DE. On the other hand, in New England, it was a huge stupid hype by the media, and the SPC. They deserve a :thumbdown: for this if something doesn't happen overnight.

Won't comment on the media, but I'm not sure how SPC is guilty in that. They explicitly called only interior southern New England, which did get (or is in the process of getting) hit.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Nathan - a.k.a. NWRGeek on July 27, 2012, 06:13:21 AM: Quote from: plane852 on July 26, 2012, 08:57:53 PM
Quote from: Nathan - a.k.a. NWRGeek on July 26, 2012, 08:52:24 PM
For a portion of the forecasted derecho areas, it happened, such as OH, PA, NJ, southeast and central NY, and now into MD/DE. On the other hand, in New England, it was a huge stupid hype by the media, and the SPC. They deserve a :thumbdown: for this if something doesn't happen overnight.

Won't comment on the media, but I'm not sure how SPC is guilty in that. They explicitly called only interior southern New England, which did get (or is in the process of getting) hit.
Only southern Connecicut got hit. However, southern Hartford County did go under one severe thunderstorm warning, because of its shape.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: twcctornado77 on July 31, 2012, 09:41:28 PM: This may be the smallest slight risk I've ever seen..........
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on September 07, 2012, 04:58:54 PM: Large MDT risk tomorrow across much of New England. It looks like one helluva squall line is going to go blowing through there.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on September 07, 2012, 11:29:07 PM: We're supposed to get some decent punch out of these storm tomorrow and it looks impressive tonight, but past history this Summer advises me to expect the storms to evaporate like vapor once they reach the GA line. It's been a very peculiar Summer in terms of severe weather here I haven't seen not one Severe T' Storm watch around Atlanta (well they have been to the North/South/East/West of course) We usually average one or two a Summer.

This event looks nasty for the NE and apparently is quite rare not for just that region, but September in general. :yes: I feel pretty embarrassed, I didn't know there was expected to be a large area of severe weather tomorrow (slight or moderate) until like 30 minutes ago... :P If I have any defense for just finding out now, it's that my niece is spending the night and I haven't been online since she came around 3 today.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on September 08, 2012, 12:24:54 AM: I am excited. I am looking forward for some nasty thunderstorms tomorrow. September is a very active month severe weather wise in the Northeast. Last year on September 15th, a lightning storm killed one construction worker who was building the new Revel casino in AC. Exactly a year before that, 2 seperate tornadoes struck the NYC area. Crazy.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on September 08, 2012, 07:49:43 AM: Quote from: WxSTAR4000FTW on September 07, 2012, 11:29:07 PM
We're supposed to get some decent punch out of these storm tomorrow and it looks impressive tonight, but past history this Summer advises me to expect the storms to evaporate like vapor once they reach the GA line. It's been a very peculiar Summer in terms of severe weather here I haven't seen not one Severe T' Storm watch around Atlanta (well they have been to the North/South/East/West of course) We usually average one or two a Summer.

This event looks nasty for the NE and apparently is quite rare not for just that region, but September in general. :yes: I feel pretty embarrassed, I didn't know there was expected to be a large area of severe weather tomorrow (slight or moderate) until like 30 minutes ago... :P If I have any defense for just finding out now, it's that my niece is spending the night and I haven't been online since she came around 3 today.

Hot damn I was right! Like that was a surprise... :rolleyes: :lol: Oh boy, if we can't get a decent line of thunderstorms (pre frontal) to make it past TN at the very least as a steady moderate rain, there's just not much hope for a turn around in our drought right about now. :hmm:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on September 08, 2012, 09:59:25 AM: Yesterday evening, we had quite the bow echo move through that was associated with the cold front.

Check out this report from yesterday evening at Memphis International. Temperature drops from 86 to 72 in one hour. Also, notice the highlighted report - "Squalls and Windy"...I've never seen that outside of a tropical system.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on September 08, 2012, 12:38:28 PM: A tornado touched down in New York in Brooklyn. Also another possible tornado struck off the coast near Rockaway Beach. I am looking at the photos and that thing looks scary and frightening. There's no doubt that's a tornado - classic funnel shape http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/tornado_hits_beach_off_coney_island_O8QHGmMoi04EUCFQFD333O?utm_medium=rss&utm_content=Local (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/tornado_hits_beach_off_coney_island_O8QHGmMoi04EUCFQFD333O?utm_medium=rss&utm_content=Local)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: TWCCraig on September 08, 2012, 01:15:35 PM: Quote from: Localonthe8s on September 08, 2012, 12:38:28 PM
A tornado touched down in New York in Brooklyn. Also another possible tornado struck off the coast near Rockaway Beach. I am looking at the photos and that thing looks scary and frightening. There's no doubt that's a tornado - classic funnel shape [url]http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/tornado_hits_beach_off_coney_island_O8QHGmMoi04EUCFQFD333O?utm_medium=rss&utm_content=Local[/url] ([url]http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/tornado_hits_beach_off_coney_island_O8QHGmMoi04EUCFQFD333O?utm_medium=rss&utm_content=Local[/url])

It was only one tornado from what I believe because it was only one storm that issued the warning, if anything, the tornado may have dissipated and then reformed but most likely was not the case.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on September 18, 2012, 12:08:20 PM: Apparently, a Moderate Risk is expected to be added to the Day 1 outlook from Central NC on north to Central NY.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN SC...CNTRL/ERN NC...CNTRL/ERN VA...DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA...CNTRL/ERN MD...MUCH OF DE...ERN PA...WRN/NRN
NJ...PARTS OF ERN NY

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 181519Z - 181645Z

SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE
UPCOMING 1630 UTC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS
ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK
AREA...AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT
ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES...LINE
BREAKS...AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING
EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION.

..COHEN/CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...
RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 38477848 39257796 41027695 42267617 43217502 43317372
42317374 41087414 39567508 38167576 37147632 35507746
34637883 34547975 35388011 36447988 38477848
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on October 01, 2012, 02:25:15 PM: October off to a lion start, I'm under a Tornado Watch.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0658.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0658.html)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on October 10, 2012, 02:14:15 PM: It looks like Mother Nature is gearing up for another severe weather session on Saturday across the northern Mississippi Valley into Iowa and Missouri as a cut-off low swings northeastward into the Midwest. Looks like damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes will be the main threats.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 09, 2012, 01:52:10 PM: Mesoscale Discussion
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2139.gif)

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CST SUN DEC 09 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY/TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091838Z - 092045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...AND WRN KY/TN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL AR...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY RETREATING NWD OVER WRN/CNTRL KY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONSOLIDATES AND DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD INTO SRN IND/OH. MEANWHILE...A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ HAS AIDED IN TRANSPORTING LOW TO MID 60F DEWPOINTS ALONG AN AXIS FROM SWRN AR INTO WRN KY/TN. IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF CLEARING OVER AR HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO LOCALLY WARM TO AROUND 70F...WHICH HAS AIDED IN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGITATED CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS. WV AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...WHICH MAY INFER THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...CONTRIBUTING TOWARD SBCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1500 J/KG...MAY AID IN GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER AR AND EVENTUAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS FROM WRN KY INTO SRN AR. IF CELLULAR ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. IF STORMS QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO LINES ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES WILL BE MORE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREATS WITH EITHER MODE OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ AIDS IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES FROM 150-250 M2 S-2. ..GARNER/HART.. 12/09/2012 ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV... LAT...LON 34079436 35209349 36749090 37378894 37028801 35708856 33819192 33339390 34079436
Outlooks for today/tomorrow. SPC is playing up a possible tornado threat specifically around Birmingham, AL tomorrow. (Day Two Outlook)

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST SUN DEC 09 2012 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS TODAY...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM TX INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF MO/AR INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN VICINITY OF 30-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO HELPING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING OVER THIS CORRIDOR...BUT THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN KY/TN SHOW MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL AND BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES OVER THIS REGION CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN KY/TN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A QLCS BY LATE EVENING AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MS/WESTERN TN THROUGH THE NIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL TX. GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THIS AREA...WHICH MAY AID IN THE RISK OF HAIL IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..HART/DISPIGNA.. 12/09/2012
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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 09 2012 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL AND GA... ...GULF COAST STATES... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY ON MONDAY AND MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM KY SWWD ACROSS TN...MS AND LA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WRN EDGE OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GREATEST EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 18Z MONDAY IN CNTRL AL GENERALLY SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55 TO 60 KT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD DEVELOP. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL MAKE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SMALLER AND SHIFTED SWD. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND SHORT-LIVED DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 12/09/2012
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Trevor on December 09, 2012, 02:31:43 PM: I'm in that MD. Hopefully we'll get something...
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: phw115wvwx on December 09, 2012, 05:12:00 PM: A tornado watch is in effect for that area until 9 PM CST.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on December 09, 2012, 07:37:25 PM: I'm too lazy to check but is it because of that storm front coming through? Today's high in Dallas hit 82, tomorrow - 46. OUCH!
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 09, 2012, 07:43:17 PM: Severe Thunderstorm Watch 678

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0678_radar.gif)

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SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 678 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 550 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA EXTREME WESTERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 550 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 677... DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR FRONT...AS WELL AS CLUSTERED CONVECTION TO ITS E...SHOULD POSE RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH EVENING. MRGL SUPERCELL SCENARIO EXISTS FOR DISCRETE/PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES BUT WEAK NEAR-SFC WINDS. EFFECTIVELY SFC-BASED PARCELS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z OVER MUCH OF AREA AS LONG AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OFFSETS DIABATIC SFC COOLING. TSTMS NEAR FRONT SHOULD BE UNDERCUT QUICKLY...PER SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. ...EDWARDS
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 15, 2012, 09:56:55 PM: For Sunday, December 16, 2012

(http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/8518/day2otlk1730.gif) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/442/day2otlk1730.gif/)

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SPC AC 151730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEAST TX/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SOUTHEAST TX/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO TN VALLEY... BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS ON SUNDAY. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION /AND ADJACENT MIDWEST/ DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS/OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND A STEADY MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF A FRONT. RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A LIMITED NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN...ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN SO...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA/PARTS OF MS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY NEAR AN ADVANCING/ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY IN THESE AREAS IN THE PRESENCE OF A HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...WITH THE REGION INCREASINGLY COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS/OZARKS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHERE STORMS DO INCREASE/MATURE...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-80 KT /0-6 KM/ WILL SUPPORT FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/SOME SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..GUYER.. 12/15/2012
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 16, 2012, 09:55:35 AM: For those keeping tabs on the severe wx today/tomorrow, here's the first watch of the day. It includes the areas of SE Texas and the northern half of Louisiana.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0682_radar.gif)

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SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 550 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 550 AM UNTIL 100 PM CST. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...TSTMS FCST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS WW AREA...WHILE STRENGTHENING TO SVR LEVELS. STG MID-UPPER WINDS -- E.G. 90 KT OBSERVED AROUND 6 KM AGL OVER LDB PROFILER SITE -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MEAN-WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE...SUPPORTING PREDOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR AND CLUSTERED MODES...WITH LEWPS AND SMALL BOWS POSSIBLE. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...EDWARDS
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Donovan on December 16, 2012, 10:15:37 AM: Given that it's December, I'm quite shocked to see SC featured in a day 4-8 outlook. Very rarely do you get these, even during peak thunderstorm seasons. :blink: Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee are in the other part of the outlook as well.

(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on December 23, 2012, 08:46:32 AM: Fairly significant severe weather episode expected on Christmas Day. Widespread damaging winds and/or tornadoes, a few long-tracked, are possible across mainly LA/MS/AL. :blink: Looks like this year is going to go out with a true bang.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 24, 2012, 09:55:41 AM: Moderate risk initiated for Christmas Day via SPC.

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SPC AC 240653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...SCNTRL MS AND WCNTRL AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...ERN GULF COAST STATES AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SETTING UP FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EWD OVER A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH COINCIDES WITH A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE UNDERWAY AT DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MOVING ENEWD FROM SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICKSBURG AND JACKSON MS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 12/24/2012
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 24, 2012, 06:49:52 PM: Slight and Moderate Risk areas have been expended for Christmas Day.

(http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/3448/mappmd.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/28/mappmd.png/)

In addition, the tornado threat has been elevated for those in the moderate risk area where strong, long lived tornadoes are possible, not only during the day tomorrow, but overnight tomorrow night as well as advised by The Storm Prediction Center. Given tomorrow is Christmas and people will be out and about traveling to see family I hope the media does whatever is necessary to keep folks abreast of the situation. :yes:
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SPC AC 241722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS...AND WRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ENERGETIC FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EWD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LATEST UPPER AIR DATA INDICATING THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIGGING INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY/DEVELOP INTO A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY BY 26/12Z. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE REGION OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MIDDLE TN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM SERN TX ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD AS THE LOW MOVES NEWD...WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD /ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT/ ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REACHING AL BY 26/12Z. ...GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY... AREAS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS INTENSE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET COINCIDES WITH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S F WILL BE RETURNING NWD ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1250 J/KG NEAR THE COAST TO AOB 500 J/KG NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. STRONG WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS /70-90 KT AT 500 MB AND 110+ KT AT 250 MB/ WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN QLCS DEVELOPMENT CONTAINING EMBEDDED FAST-MOVING BOW ECHOES AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/MESO-VORTICES AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS LA AND THE SRN HALF OF SRN MS. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE QLCS. LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /SRH VALUES OF 200-400 M2 PER S2/ INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERAL LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LONG-LIVED FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BOWING QLCS. DESPITE GRADUALLY DECREASING INSTABILITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OCCURS AFTER DARK...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF AL...SRN TN AND WRN GA DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ..WEISS.. 12/24/2012
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 24, 2012, 07:15:13 PM: Snippets of AFDs across the Southeast region concerning severe weather...

Atlanta, GA
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012/

..SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS
CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE QLCS EVENT TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING.

SVR WX PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SBCAPE NOW PROGGED AT 500-1000 J/KG AND 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT VALID 06Z WED. CAPE AND SHEAR DROPS SOME BY
12Z...BU BY THE TIME THE EVENT ENDS...
TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 OR 2.5 INCHES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO LONG TERM DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND STEADY
RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER 6 HOURS.

EVEN IF SLOWER NAM IS RIGHT...TSRA WILL MOVE OUT OF FAR SE COUNTIES
BY 18Z WED. STRONG WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LIKELY BEHIND
FRONT BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.T SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE.

Houston, TX
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHRISTMAS DAY...

MODELS ALL BRING
A STRONG JET INTO TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH ONE INITIAL JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE AREA AT 06Z TUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN JET. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL INCREASE MORE AS THE NOSE OF THE JET PUSHES INTO C TX
AND E TX FROM 12-18Z TUE. GIVEN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SFC LOW TO FORM ALONG WARM FRONT AND
MOVE ALONG IT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A QUESTION WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BUT MODELS STILL SHOW AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH POSSIBLY 2000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST. ONE OF
THE OTHER ISSUES WILL BE CAPPING FROM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BOTH
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING IN THE 800-700MB LAYER FOR
KIAH AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM KCXO/KUTS/KCLL
SHOW MUCH WEAKER CAP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORM
ROTATION. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THE CAP HOLDS AND HOW MUCH
THE CAP INHIBITS SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. STILL
ANY STORMS THAT CAN BE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ROTATE
AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THINK SPC DAY 1 AND 2
OUTLOOKS REALLY HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT. GENERALLY THIS WILL BE NORTH
OF I-10 MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND FROM 3-4AM THROUGH NOON ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THINK THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WHERE THE WARM
FRONT MOVES AND HOW STRONG CAPPING BECOMES.

Alexandria, LA
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
318 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

...INDICATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
STILL EXIST...

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY
WILL HELP ENERGIZE AN ACTIVE JET STREAM OVER THE REGION...WITH A
DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MORNING THE RESULT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS SITUATION AND
PLACE ANY WEATHER RADIOS THEY MAY HAVE ON THE ALERT MODE BEFORE
GOING TO BED TONIGHT. ALSO...ONE MAY WANT TO MAKE SURE ALL OUTSIDE
CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS OR INFLATABLE CHRISTMAS OBJECTS ARE SAFELY
SECURE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TO BETWEEN LUFKIN AND TOLEDO BEND BY NOON...THEN QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
OVER 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL
JET WILL REACH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST. THEREFORE...THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE ROTATING CELLS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR...AND ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS THAT AREA
OUTLINED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR TOMORROW.

MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER EAST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
PROGRESSIVE MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL BE AIDED BY 60 PLUS KNOT MID
LEVEL WINDS...AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THAT WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE BECOMES MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL. THIS SQUALL LINE
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER BY NOON TIME...AND CONTINUE TO
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM.

Jackson, MS
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER TO IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

WARM FRONTAL RAINS (AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-20) WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND TRANSLATES
EAST-NORTHEAST. INSTABILITY ISN`T OVERLY HIGH WITH THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY BUT MUCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 200-300J/KG CO-LOCATED WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR/COLD TEMPS ALOFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR
SOME NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

AS FOR STORM MODE...MOST OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW STORMS
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE OFF TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING
SHIFTING EAST...WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT
OF THE WARM SECTOR AND HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE CAN PUSH. THIS
LINE WILL CERTAINLY POSE A 70+ MPH DAMAGING WIND RISK IN VICINITY OF
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...IN ADDITION TO A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER GIVEN COLD TEMPS ALOFT/GOOD MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...AND THESE CELLS WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL.

AS FOR TIMING...THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW EARLY THE LINE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS...WHICH COULD BE AS EARLY AS MID TO
LATE MORNING BUT THINKING RIGHT NOW IS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NATCHEZ AREA
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING SO FOLKS ACROSS THIS AREA NEED TO BE AWARE
EARLY. THE FAST-MOVING LINE SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO A TIMING GRAPHIC ON OUR WEB
PAGE FOR SPECIFICS.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 25, 2012, 07:27:52 AM: Dec 25, 2012 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

(http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/3807/maptax.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/38/maptax.png/)
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SPC AC 250600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...A DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET STREAK/ AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD...AMPLIFIES...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY. ...GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST STATES... GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING TO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT...WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS /AND SOME MIDDLE 60S F NEAR THE COAST/ BECOMING INCREASINGLY PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. INITIALLY...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT /MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL/...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHERN LA. WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY DAY TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA. WITH TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL...WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE FOR AREAS WITHIN 150-200 MILES OF THE GULF COAST. LESSER...AND A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SURFACE LOW LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...LARGELY OWING TO PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND A LESSER INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. REGARDLESS...THIS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...WITH 70-100 KT AT 500 MB AND 110+ KT AT 250 MB...WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. ACCENTUATED BY THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE CYCLONE...EVENTUAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING QLCS...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO CROSS LA AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF MS/AL THROUGH TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED BOWING SEGMENTS. FURTHERMORE...A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVENTUAL EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 200-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH COINCIDENT WITH A 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...INSTABILITY WILL WANE LATE IN THE PERIOD. EVEN SO...A SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF AL...SOUTHEAST TN...AND WESTERN GA LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS INCLUDING COASTAL SC BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. ..GUYER/SMITH.. 12/25/2012
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on December 25, 2012, 01:31:51 PM: TWC just said 1 death from a possible tornado in Houston. Apparently a tree came down on that person.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 25, 2012, 02:02:31 PM: Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 695

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0695.html (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0695.html)

EDIT: A lot of heavy rain has accumulated in LA/MS so far.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Mr. Rainman on December 25, 2012, 06:05:35 PM: Tornado emergency declared for Mobile, AL. Large and very dangerous tornado heading into the downtown region right now. :blink:
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on December 25, 2012, 06:38:16 PM: And they got hit just this weekend
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 25, 2012, 07:08:29 PM: Storms showing rotation heading towards McIntosh and Grove Hill, AL.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 25, 2012, 07:30:30 PM: Tornado caught on camera earlier today.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=4140595600830&set=vb.1461876940&type=2&theater (http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=4140595600830&set=vb.1461876940&type=2&theater)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Pop Light Brown on December 26, 2012, 02:16:13 PM: NWS New Orleans via Facebook: Tornadoes confirmed in Wilkinson and Pearl River counties. The strength will be determined later today.

Witnesses say the tornadoes were kinda big, so my guess is EF2 or EF3.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Pop Light Brown on December 27, 2012, 12:29:35 AM: Surveys complete by NWS New Orleans:

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 559 PM CST WED DEC 26 2012 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 12/25 SEVERE WEATHER EVENT... .OVERVIEW...TWO SURVEY CREWS WERE DISPATCHED TO ASSESS DAMAGE FROM THE STORMS THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THREE AREAS OF DAMAGE WERE INVESTIGATED. TWO AREAS WERE DETERMINED TO BE THE RESULT OF TORNADOES AND ONE WAS DETERMINED TO BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE. .PEARL RIVER COUNTY TORNADO... RATING: EF-3 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 140 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 24 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 175 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 8 START DATE: DEC 25 2012 START TIME: 310 PM CST START LOCATION: 2.75 MILES SW OF MCNEIL / PEARL RIVER / MS START LAT/LON: 30.650 / -89.681 END DATE: DEC 25 2012 END TIME: 345 PM CST END LOCATION: 12 MILES E OF POPLARVILLE / PEARL RIVER / MS END_LAT/LON: 30.839 / -89.341 SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN ON HARRIS RD ON THE SW SIDE OF MCNEIL...WHERE IT SNAPPED SEVERAL PINE TREES. IT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF STRONG EF-2 AND WEAK EF-3 DAMAGE ALONG JOE SMITH RD AND SONES CHAPEL RD. THE WORST DAMAGE OCCURRED WHEN A SINGLE STORY BRICK VENEER TRIPLEX DWELLING WAS DESTROYED WITH ONLY TWO SMALL INTERIOR WALLS LEFT STANDING. THE TORNADO WEAKENED AFTER CROSSING HWY 11... CAUSING MAINLY TREE AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE UNTIL IT REINTENSIFIED IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF PEARL RIVER COUNTY NEAR RED HILL CHURCH RD. IT CAUSED STRONG EF-1 DAMAGE AS IT WAS LEAVING PEARL RIVER COUNTY INTO STONE COUNTY. COUNTY OFFICIALS PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF 22 HOMES DESTROYED/NOT REPARABLE...8 HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE...16 HOMES WITH MINOR DAMAGE AND AN ADDITIONAL 9 HOMES AFFECTED. 8 PEOPLE WERE TRANSPORTED BY EMS TO AREA HOSPITALS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MINOR INJURIES LIKELY OCCURRED. TIMES BASED ON RADAR. WILKINSON AND AMITE COUNTY TORNADO... RATING: EF-1 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 105 MPH MPH PATH LENGTH/STATUTE/: 3 MILES MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 250 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 1 START DATE: DEC 25 2012 START TIME: 231 PM CST START LOCATION: 1 MILE SOUTH OF CENTREVILLE / WILKINSON / MS START LAT/LON: 31.08 / -91.07 END DATE: DEC 25 2012 END TIME: 238 PM CST END LOCATION: 2.7MILES EAST OF CENTREVILLE / AMITE / MS END_LAT/LON: 31.10 / -91.02 TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN SOUTH OF HWY 24 JUST EAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 33 AND HWY 24 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CENTREVILLE. INITIALLY NUMEROUS SOFT WOODS AND A FEW HARD WOODS WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED AND A FEW POWER POLES LOST THEIR WOODEN CROSSMEMBERS. TORNADO QUICKLY MOVED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS HWY 24 UPROOTING ANOTHER 6-10 TREE...ONE WHICH CLIPPED A HOUSE BRINGING DOWN MUCH OF THE EAST FACING WALL. TORNADO WAS ABOUT 170-200 YARDS WIDE AT THIS POINT AND CONTINUED INTO THE TOWN OF CENTREVILLE. A TIRE SERVICE STATION LOST MOST OF ITS CANOPY(COLUMNS STILL STANDING) AND THE CENTREVILLE HEADSTART LOST ITS METAL AWNING. TORNADO CROSSED FORT STREET WITH MANY MORE TREES COMING DOWN...ONE ON TOP OF A CAR. ALSO ALONG FORT STREET A SINGLE WIDE MOBILE HOME LOST MUCH OF ITS EXTERIOR WALLS. ON EAST HOWARD STREET A TREE FELL THROUGH A HOUSE CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. ON HOWARD STREET ANOTHER TREE FELL INTO A HOUSE PINNING A LADY AND LEADING TO THE ONE MINOR INJURY. TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST LEADING TO ANOTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE UPROOTING AND SNAPPING NUMEROUS HARD WOODS. ALSO A RESIDENCE HAD MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE LEADING TO THE CARPORT PARTIALLY COLLAPSING. TORNADO MOVED ALONG HWY 48 FOR ABOUT A MILE CAUSING LIGHT TREE DAMAGE BEFORE LIFTING. TIMES WERE BASED ON RADAR AND EYEWITNESS REPORTS. EAST BATON ROUGE WIND DAMAGE... A SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT SCATTERED TREE AND LARGE LIMB DAMAGE ACROSS THE CITY OF ZACHARY WAS DUE TO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. NOTE: THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA.
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Pop Light Brown on December 27, 2012, 12:31:26 AM: Plus the tornado that hit Mobile on Christmas was an EF2:

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 542 PM CST WED DEC 26 2012 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 25 DECEMBER 2012 TORNADO ACROSS THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA... ...CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON EF-2 CONFIRMED BY THE NWS... .OVERVIEW...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF THE PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SQUALL LINE. ONE OF THE STORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS MOBILE COUNTY PRODUCED A TORNADO THAT IMPACTED THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA. .MIDTOWN MOBILE TORNADO... RATING: EF-2 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 111-135 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 5.7 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 200 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: SEVERAL MINOR START DATE: DEC 25 2012 START TIME: 454 PM CST START LOCATION: NEAR HALLS MILL RD AND DAUPHIN ISLAND PKWY START LAT/LON: 30.67, -88.09 END DATE: DEC 25 2012 END TIME: 505 PM CST END LOCATION: PRICHARD END_LAT/LON: 30.74, -88.06 SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE INITIAL TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS LOCATED NEAR DAUPHIN ISLAND PARKWAY...DUVAL STREET AND HALLS MILL ROAD...WHERE IT INITIALLY MOVED NORTHWESTWARD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE INTERSECTIONS OF HOLCOMB AVENUE...GOVERNMENT STREET AND DAUPHIN ISLAND PARKWAY WHERE IT PRODUCED DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH AN EF-1 TORNADO...DAMAGING SEVERAL COMMERCIAL RETAILERS. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHWARD...DAMAGING HOMES AND PRODUCING ROOF DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS HOMES. IT THEN REACHED MURPHY HIGH SCHOOL...WHERE IT DESTROYED SEVERAL OUT-BUILDINGS...BLEW OUT WINDOWS AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO THE HIGH SCHOOL. FROM HERE...THE TORNADO TRACKED NORTHWARD TO DAUPHIN STREET WHERE IT STRENGTHENED AND WIDENED TO 200 YARDS PRODUCING DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH AN EF-2 TORNADO TO SEVERAL HOMES. ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED WAS THE TRINITY EPISCOPAL CHURCH ON DAUPHIN STREET. THE TORNADO THEN MOVED INTO THE SILVERWOOD STREET AREA WHERE IT PRODUCED EF-1 DAMAGE AND SPORADIC EF-2 DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES. THE TORNADO NEXT TRACKED NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOBILE INFIRMARY HOSPITAL ...WHERE IT BLEW OUT SEVERAL WINDOWS AND DAMAGED SEVERAL AUTOMOBILES...AS WELL AS FLIPPING ONE AUTOMOBILE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 165 MOVING INTO THE PRICHARD AREA WHERE IT PRODUCED DAMAGE TO THE ROOFS OF SEVERAL HOMES...AS WELL AS SNAPPING SEVERAL TREES. THE TORNADO CONTINUED ACROSS TELEGRAPH ROAD WHERE IT TOSSED SEVERAL LARGE SHIPPING CONTAINERS AND DAMAGED A WAREHOUSE FACILITY BEFORE DISSIPATING ON JAKES LANE IN PRICHARD. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WANTS TO THANK THE MOBILE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE WITH OUR STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT EFFORTS TODAY. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES. EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH* NOTE: THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. $$ BARRY/GARMON
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: TWCCraig on December 27, 2012, 12:33:06 AM: Some thunderstorms rolling through portions of the tri-state. Some of these storms have the potential to spawn wind gusts of up to 70mph.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1211 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012 NJZ010-012>014-020-270615- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD... SANDY HOOK...JACKSON 1211 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012 ...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM... LOOK FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO GUST OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH 100 AM. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF MONMOUTH COUNTY...WHERE GUSTS MAY TOP 60 MPH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. $$ HAYES
Title: Re: Severe Weather Season 2012
Post by: Localonthe8s on December 27, 2012, 01:55:06 AM: We had a large thunderstorm that came through my area right around 9:30. Lots of lightning certainly something you normally don't see during this time of the year!