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Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Winter Weather => Topic started by: Lightning on January 07, 2011, 02:18:07 PM

Title: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Lightning on January 07, 2011, 02:18:07 PM
I am sure you all have heard about the possiblity of ice, snow and sleet across the deep south for Sunday and Monday. Why are these kind of weather events so tricky, complicated and difficult to forecast?
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 07, 2011, 02:30:39 PM
I am sure you all have heard about the possiblity of ice, snow and sleet across the deep south for Sunday and Monday. Why are these kind of weather events so tricky, complicated and difficult to forecast?
A large part of forecasting is based on computer models and analyses. There are several highly regarded models: GFS (American) ECMWF (European) and NAM. There are countless others that are considered less accurate but are used to compare to the main models. Most models are run four times a day. 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z. 0z and 12z models are typically more accurate because they contain the latest observations and balloon launch data from across the country. This year has been VERY tough for forecasters because there have been such HUGE changes in each model run with each model showing a different picture. The Euro might show 20in of snow at 0z then only 1in by 12z. There has been little model consistency this winter. To throw another headache in the system.... Forecasting events in the south is always extra tricky when you have to consider temperatures.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: phw115wvwx on January 07, 2011, 04:40:23 PM
Here's the reason why forecasting winter storms is so difficult:  A difference of 50 miles in a storm's track can mean the difference between a foot of snow, a quarter inch of ice, or an inch of rain for your area.  Why?  It's because precipitation type is extremely sensitive to the temperature at the surface and aloft.  During one storm last month, I observed the snow suddenly changing over to all sleet, and the forecasters asked me to do a special balloon launch in the storm.  Just above the surface, my balloon revealed a layer no bigger than a thousand feet in depth where the temperature was above freezing.  The highest temperature I recorded in that little layer was just 33.5°F.  One degree can literally mean everything, which is why the storm track is so critical.

Now, try your luck forecasting a storm several days out in the future given how sensitive precipitation type is to the temperature and with how inconsistent the models can be.  The slightest details in the first 24 hours of a model solution can severely affect what the models show by days 3-7, so even the intensity and amount of moisture available for the storm can be highly uncertain.  Some of our models can barely even resolve that 50-mile difference that I mentioned previously.  The bottom line is that it's just not easy.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 07, 2011, 08:38:57 PM
It's amazing to see the swath of WSW (Winter Storm Watches) that extend from ARK to N/SC. NAM really wants to dump on I-20 a large area of 8-10 inches of snow from Brimingham to Atlanta to Athens and north. But that's only if the latest NAM run has it's way. Speaking of the NAM 00z run is running right now, I'm interested to see what it says. I plan on making a snow map tomorrow night (preliminary) and again Sunday (Final) on this storm, I'm gonna post it here and at other weather forum communities I'm apart of. One of our local mets said this evening to stock up for 2 or more days in case to prepare for the worst.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 07, 2011, 10:28:24 PM
I'm going to be interested in seeing if we get anything from this storm. We're going to be on the very tail end of this, so I'm not sure, especially since TWC hasn't said anything about an impact on Texas. However, both TWC and the NWC and predicting a great chance (70-90 percent) of a wintry mix on Sunday and possible flurries later. Obviously, nothing big, but ANY type of wintry precipitation in Dallas is something to note. :yes:

It's going to be quite chilly though...we may be below freezing for a couple of days. :brr:
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on January 07, 2011, 11:32:27 PM
What if this stormed caused TWC to have another meltdown?
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 08, 2011, 03:33:27 AM
What if this stormed caused TWC to have another meltdown?
Ok.... :huh:
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on January 08, 2011, 07:05:36 AM
Ok.... :huh:

i was being sarcastic  :rofl:

either way Maria Larosa did a NAM run and it projected 10.6" of snow and ice for Downtown Atlanta
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Localonthe8s on January 08, 2011, 09:51:49 AM
It was bad sarcasm Alex :P and Dallas is projected to get around 4" of snow as well. It's been awhile since the Big D has seen flurries
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 08, 2011, 10:20:48 AM
I'm watching this very closely, especially our temps. Seems like we'll be anywhere from the upper teens to low 20's tonight and the clouds are expected to move in late tomorrow morning. I don't want to jump the gun, but I can't see it getting to the upper 30's tomorrow if there's a lot of thick clouds around during the day. The best thing about this is about 90% of this will be all snow since the worst of it will be in the overnight hours. I keep looking at these huge snowfall totals that keep coming out on some of the models and all I can say is I think we warped back to the 70's and 80's because the last time we saw large swaths of 4-8, 8-10 10+ over areas of the South was during that era. We haven't had good snows like that since. It's been nearly a decade since we saw 6 inches. This is definitely going to be fun to watch for sure. Somebody is gonna get whacked hard. :yes:
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 08, 2011, 12:13:31 PM
...and Dallas is projected to get around 4" of snow as well. It's been awhile since the Big D has seen flurries

Wow, that's even more than I thought :blink: TWC is predicting a 100% chance of a wintry mix tomorrow; NWS is predicting rain changing to snow. Accumlations expected to be anywhere between 1 and 3 inches. Our high temperatures will be above freezing and the ground is pretty warm, though, so will we have to worry about ice? :dunno:

And yes, the last time Dallas saw any snow was actually March 2010 (first day of spring, ironically). Can't forget our record-setting 12 inches of snow in February, either.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 08, 2011, 12:15:43 PM
The National Weather Service is calling for 3-6 inches in Chattanooga, with about a foot or more on higher elevations. Of course, we're still 48 hours out on that, so things may change. Lows are supposed to be treacherous throughout the week, though. One model (can't remember) called for lows of 10 in Chattanooga on Thursday, and a low of 1 in Knoxville. GEEZUS!
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 08, 2011, 04:28:14 PM
According to the Memphis NWS, there is a chance of thundersnow there. So snowfall rates could be of excess of 2-3 inches an hour if that occurs which I believe is likely, there looks to be a lot of lift with the development of this storm atm.

EDIT: I forgot to mention this earlier, I was on my NBC affiliate's website and Cheryl Lemkee afternoon update video was forecasting 6-10 inches here. They must have gotten more confident in higher totals because Chris Holcomb was there this morning was saying the model run he showed that had a large area of 6-12 was overdone was thinking more in line with 5 inches, only higher totals in isolated spots.

WSB-TV (ABC) - Brad Nitz forecasting 4-7 inches, he said he was being "conservative" could be higher before mixing starts near the latter end. Also forecasting 1/4-1/2, this is the part that's alraming to me. Hopefully it'll end up being less ice. (This channel is also in "Storm Watch", can't remember the last time I saw that so that's saying something.)

WAGA-TV (FOX) - 5-7 inches

I don't know about the forecast from our CBS affilate

TWC - 4-6 inches Sunday Night, possibility of more accumulations Monday going by the LF.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 08, 2011, 06:02:43 PM
This must be a fast-moving system. It has been sunny with not a cloud in the sky all day, and I now only see a few clouds in the sky as I look out the window. So, since we're supposed to get precip. tonight, the storm must be a very quick one.

Here are our latest forecasts:

WINTER STORM WATCH - in effect until Sunday evening

TWC

TONIGHT: A 70% chance of rain, becoming steady after midnight. Low 38.

SUNDAY: A 90% chance of wintry mix in the morning, changing to all snow by the afternoon. High 37. 2 to 4 inches expected.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. No more precipitation expected.


NWS

TONIGHT: A 70% chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow after midnight. Low 35.

SUNDAY: An 80% chance of snow, ending by noon. High 35 and falling. 2 to 4 inches expected.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. No more precipitation expected.


For here, it's the timing of this storm rather than the snow accumulation that seems to be debatable. :thinking:
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 09, 2011, 03:15:16 AM
Rather interesting setup. Have to two low pressure systems that will come together off the eastern seaboard. I am getting screwed
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 09, 2011, 03:16:50 AM
According to the Memphis NWS, there is a chance of thundersnow there. So snowfall rates could be of excess of 2-3 inches an hour if that occurs which I believe is likely, there looks to be a lot of lift with the development of this storm atm.
I actually had some thundersnow today :P
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 09, 2011, 05:21:28 AM
According to the Memphis NWS, there is a chance of thundersnow there. So snowfall rates could be of excess of 2-3 inches an hour if that occurs which I believe is likely, there looks to be a lot of lift with the development of this storm atm.
I actually had some thundersnow today :P

I love to be lucky to see thundersnow with this, after experiencing it back in March 2009, It's such an awesome phenomenon and the rumbles of thunder is so LOUD, louder than some of the severe thunderstorms we usually see in Spring.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 09, 2011, 09:13:10 AM
Birmingham, AL NWS seems to be hinting at a large heavy snow band developing later on during this storm... :thinking:
Quote
NOW ON TO OTHER CONCERNS. OUT OF THE GATE...I HAD BEEN WATCHING
THE DRYING TREND ACROSS THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS MOST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF
WATERS. THAT SAID...WHEN LOOKING AT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE PVU...THERE WILL BE A DECENT BAND OF
MESOSCALE LIFT THAT LOOKS TO FORM NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL MS AND
TRANSLATE RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO TCL...BHM...AND EVENTUALLY
GADSDEN BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREABOUT. MODEL QPF JUST DOESN`T MATCH
THAT FEATURE...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED SOME OF THE LOWER AMOUNTS BY
KEEPING THE GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MORE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. OF COURSE...THE MESOSCALE DETAILS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE DETERMINED IN A MORE NOWCASTING
SCENARIO...BUT I WILL HAVE TO RELY ON THE NUMERICAL OUTPUT FOR THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC LOOK AND FEEL OF THE SETUP. STILL...THE MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND IF THE FEATURE IS REAL...THERE
WILL BE THAT OPPORTUNITY EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO SEE A HEAVY SNOW
BAND DEVELOP...WILL BE INTERESTING.[/
quote]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BMX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BMX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1)
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 09, 2011, 10:18:50 AM
SPC comfirms thundersnow possibility  :D

Quote
SPC AC 091237
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011
   
   VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD
   TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOSE AMPLITUDE...AS AN UPSTREAM LOW OVER
   THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DIGS ESEWD.  A SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE
   MIDDLE TX COAST AND AN ASSOCIATED BOWING MCS BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE
   PASSED PEAK.  THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE
   DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH NO LONGER PHASES WITH
   THE COASTAL FRONT.  THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS ENDING ALONG THE TX
   COAST...BUT THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DAMAGING
   GUSTS AND EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE SE LA COAST LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE LOW AND SURFACE WARM
   SECTOR.  FARTHER INLAND...WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY ATOP A VERY
   STRONG WAA REGIME COULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS FAR N AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR
   FROM MS INTO GA.
   
   ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 01/09/2011
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: wxmediafan on January 09, 2011, 02:02:24 PM
According to the Memphis NWS, there is a chance of thundersnow there. So snowfall rates could be of excess of 2-3 inches an hour if that occurs which I believe is likely, there looks to be a lot of lift with the development of this storm atm.
I actually had some thundersnow today :P
Lucky.  That's one phenomenon I want to see, sooo bad!  I always think of Jim Cantore's reaction from the 90's :P
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Donovan on January 09, 2011, 02:19:49 PM
Wishes they would cancel school for tomorrow.  :thumbdown:
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATION: LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH PERHAPS
  AS MUCH AS 1/4 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING: BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND CONTINUING
  THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
  MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. POWER OUTAGES WITH DOWNED TREES AND
  POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
  ICE BUILDUP OCCURS.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 09, 2011, 03:06:31 PM
Wishes they would cancel school for tomorrow.  :thumbdown:
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATION: LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH PERHAPS
  AS MUCH AS 1/4 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING: BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND CONTINUING
  THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
  MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. POWER OUTAGES WITH DOWNED TREES AND
  POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
  ICE BUILDUP OCCURS.
There is no watch for Charleston. All rain for that area for most of the storm
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 09, 2011, 04:59:20 PM
According to the Memphis NWS, there is a chance of thundersnow there. So snowfall rates could be of excess of 2-3 inches an hour if that occurs which I believe is likely, there looks to be a lot of lift with the development of this storm atm.
I actually had some thundersnow today :P
Lucky.  That's one phenomenon I want to see, sooo bad!  I always think of Jim Cantore's reaction from the 90's :P

I'd love to see thundersnow, too. I don't know why it's hard to think about snow and thunder at the same time...just is! :P

The storm here is just about over. We may get more snow early tonight, but things are starting to quiet down. I will have an update later. :)
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 09, 2011, 05:14:53 PM
Chattanooga is supposed to get about 2-4 inches of snow tonight, 2-4 inches tomorrow, and top the evening off with freezing rain. For the public schools, that's good enough to shut down school for two days. For a private school like mine...I'll be lucky to get tomorrow off.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Donovan on January 09, 2011, 05:20:41 PM
Wishes they would cancel school for tomorrow.  :thumbdown:
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATION: LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH PERHAPS
  AS MUCH AS 1/4 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING: BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND CONTINUING
  THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
  MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. POWER OUTAGES WITH DOWNED TREES AND
  POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
  ICE BUILDUP OCCURS.
There is no watch for Charleston. All rain for that area for most of the storm
I actually live outside of Charleston in Berkeley County. Just haven't changed my thing on here.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 09, 2011, 05:51:43 PM
Chattanooga is supposed to get about 2-4 inches of snow tonight, 2-4 inches tomorrow, and top the evening off with freezing rain. For the public schools, that's good enough to shut down school for two days. For a private school like mine...I'll be lucky to get tomorrow off.

I'm surprised public schools in your area would react more than private schools. :thinking: Here, public schools would try to find the least possible amount of days to close schools. Private schools couldn't care less, and some don't even have to make the days up. <_<
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Lightning on January 09, 2011, 06:13:00 PM
At least here in Birmingham, the weather people (both the NWS and the local media) are making this sound like it's the end of the world. Like it's doomsday. They are dramatizing this way more than they have to. I don't like it, one bit.  :thumbdown: I hope to get some thundersnow, though. That would be nice.  :D
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Lightning on January 09, 2011, 06:26:44 PM
Here is out Winter Storm Warning from the National Weather Service:

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET IS LIKELY OVER WEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE SHOULD
BE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WILL SEE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 3
AND 6 INCHES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE.

AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN THE WARNED AREA WILL MIX WITH
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SLEET...SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY BE LOWER. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH UPWARDS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF ICE BY MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE
COULD VERY WELL DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Donovan on January 09, 2011, 06:40:47 PM
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* IMPACTS: ICE...SNOW AND SLEET WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ICE ACCUMULATION COULD
  ALSO BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

* ACCUMULATION: AROUND 1/4 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LESS THAN 1 INCH
  OF SNOW AND SLEET.

* TIMING: BEGINNING BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM MONDAY. ENDING LATE
  MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES RISE
  ABOVE FREEZING.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 09, 2011, 07:26:22 PM
SWS for Heavy Sleet in Atlanta and surrounding suburbs.
Quote
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
702 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

GAZ030>035-037-041>050-052>061-066>068-070>073-078-100130-
702 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MODERATE SLEET ACROSS
HARRIS...JONES...BALDWIN...PIKE...MONROE...LAMAR...TROUP...
MERIWETHER...SPALDING...HEARD...BUTTS...HANCOCK...PUTNAM...COWETA...
JASPER...FAYETTE...HENRY...CLAYTON...NEWTON...GREENE...
ROCKDALE...DOUGLAS...MORGAN...CARROLL...HARALSON...WALTON...DEKALB...
OCONEE...PAULDING...POLK. ..COBB...BARROW...GWINNETT AND FULTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EST...

AT 651 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY SLEET SPREADING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AT 651 PM EXTENDED FROM ROME...TO
ATLANTA...TO GREENSBORO.
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL FALL
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. ROADS MAY QUICKLY BECOME ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS IN
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO
AND TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM.

$$



19
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 09, 2011, 07:34:47 PM
Congrats to you folks in the deep south with the snow :)
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 09, 2011, 08:05:01 PM
It finally started snowing in Atlanta! Within 5 minutes cars and the street have started to glaze over sleet is also mixing in. Our ABC affiliate is doing 30 minute updates and the met there Brad Nitz said reports of snow coating the ground on the southside! It's really coming down too. :dance: :dance: :D
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on January 09, 2011, 08:17:37 PM
(http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/925/68092022.jpg)
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 09, 2011, 09:34:44 PM
We got hit by a good snowband here snowfall rates were of 1-2 inches an hour. TWC is reporting 2 inches at the airport. Visibility is down near a quarter mile, Winds have picked up, and best of all NO SCHOOL! Extended weekend!  :D Looks like another snowband is getting ready to move in from the SW in AL.  Basically if you see how it looks where Mike Sidel is in Grenda, MS that's how it is here now.
http://www.motoweatherman.com/radarFFC_loop/default.php (http://www.motoweatherman.com/radarFFC_loop/default.php)

EDIT: Alex, it's getting rough in Birmingham, I heard reports of thundersnow there.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 09, 2011, 10:45:38 PM
For those of you in the path of the storm, remember to stay safe. The snow has ended here, but freezing drizzle is expected tonight which might make travel conditions a nightmare. Hopefully nothing happens.

We did get some sporadic snow accumulations here. I will post a report tomorrow. :)
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 09, 2011, 10:49:10 PM
Talk about insane!

Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 09, 2011, 10:51:57 PM
Heavy snow bands just South of Chattanooga, but the humidity is too low to have any snow hit the ground. This sucks big time, because as of now, school is still on.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 09, 2011, 10:53:44 PM
Talk about insane!

Glad I'm not on that road. :faint: Is this as of now, though...why are there THAT many vehicles this late at night? :blink: :blink:
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Eric on January 09, 2011, 11:06:39 PM
From an outsider's perspective, and considering I've spent my whole life in wintry climates, I find it amazing how quickly the South gets paralyzed due to an amount of snow that wouldn't even register in the North.  Of course, I know that the South isn't used to such snowfall and the infrastructure isn't designed to handle it, but still... it's always struck me as somewhat strange.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 09, 2011, 11:41:52 PM
From an outsider's perspective, and considering I've spent my whole life in wintry climates, I find it amazing how quickly the South gets paralyzed due to an amount of snow that wouldn't even register in the North.  Of course, I know that the South isn't used to such snowfall and the infrastructure isn't designed to handle it, but still... it's always struck me as somewhat strange.

Well to be fair, the snow came at least 4 hours earlier and local mets around here started downplaying how much snow we would get suggesting more ice. The heavy snow came right before 8pm, it was forecasted to be near midnight because the air was so dry. To add to that there were isolated reports of thundersnow and the snowall rates were 2-3 inches an hour. That's enough to paralyze any region if you're caught off guard. Had there been 35mph winds, this technically would have been blizzard conditions. That was the problem last month when we had ice, it came during evening rush hour instead of at 9pm as the NWS had forecasted, no snow plows were out and there were hundreds of car accidents.


@Andy - That was around 10pm tonight. I think it caught a lot of people off guard, I think most of those drivers wouldn't have been out there had they known it was coming so early.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 09, 2011, 11:44:52 PM
Snowfall beginning in Chattanooga. School cancelled.  :happy: And, amazingly, 7-9 inches of snow anticipated in the next 18 hours or so, with a foot or more in the mountains. This is a stunning storm.

Current Snow Totals:
- Downtown Atlanta: 4.3 inches, 1-3 more anticipated. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour.
- Chattanooga: 0.3 inches, 7-9 anticipated. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour.
- Huntsville, AL: 2.1 inches, 3-5 expected. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour.
- Tupelo, MS: 6.1 inches, 2-3 more anticipated. Snowfall rates just under 1 inch per hour.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Donovan on January 10, 2011, 12:06:23 AM
Its finally snowing! :dance: Should stop now soon, then continue later. Schools only a 3 hour delay  :hammer:
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 10, 2011, 02:02:53 AM
Its finally snowing! :dance: Should stop now soon, then continue later. Schools only a 3 hour delay  :hammer:
After 10am it should turn all to rain for areas on the coast. Same situation here but for Tuesday. At least you got a little break :P
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Donovan on January 10, 2011, 07:50:09 AM
Its finally snowing! :dance: Should stop now soon, then continue later. Schools only a 3 hour delay  :hammer:
After 10am it should turn all to rain for areas on the coast. Same situation here but for Tuesday. At least you got a little break :P
Yeah it is nice to see some snow, finally they cancel school, haha. I will be better in the pm for rain on the roads.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Lightning on January 10, 2011, 02:46:50 PM
In my area, at least where I live, they blew it way out of proportion. We were supposed to get 4-8 inches of snow in my area and we didn't even get enough to cover the whole ground. They also started saying how the ice storm threat was increasing for my area and our power never went out. They made it sound like it was going to be the end of the world. It was uncalled for. They got me worried and all upset for no reason.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 10, 2011, 03:41:25 PM
In my area, at least where I live, they blew it way out of proportion. We were supposed to get 4-8 inches of snow in my area and we didn't even get enough to cover the whole ground. They also started saying how the ice storm threat was increasing for my area and our power never went out. They made it sound like it was going to be the end of the world. It was uncalled for. They got me worried and all upset for no reason.

As far as the ice, I think it's better to be safe than sorry even if it doesn't work out the way it was forecasted to. Any amount of ice is dangerous period.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 10, 2011, 10:50:41 PM
Well, it looks like the winter storm has moved on. While we did get some sleet and snow, winter precip. accumulations only totaled .2 inches. I've seen more snow than this before (last year, for example :P). This was more of a rain-maker for us than anything; we broke a record of 1.27 inches.

From an outsider's perspective, and considering I've spent my whole life in wintry climates, I find it amazing how quickly the South gets paralyzed due to an amount of snow that wouldn't even register in the North.  Of course, I know that the South isn't used to such snowfall and the infrastructure isn't designed to handle it, but still... it's always struck me as somewhat strange.

I think it's kind of interesting how we get "paralyzed" too, but I guess it's just because winter storms are not all that common for the South and yes, we are not as prepared for such a situation. Any trace of ice or snow is likely to get school delayed or closed and would make the roads a mess. But when I went to Colorado, for example, they have about three times as much snow there and for a couple of months, and the roads were not that bad, and obviously school wouldn't be closed for that long.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 12, 2011, 12:01:45 AM
Ice skating on Downtown Atlanta streets
Man ice skates down Atlanta street (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjnF5k2HCGY#)
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 12, 2011, 12:09:37 AM
We had freezing rain and drizzle today which was a mess
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 12, 2011, 12:13:11 AM
From an outsider's perspective, and considering I've spent my whole life in wintry climates, I find it amazing how quickly the South gets paralyzed due to an amount of snow that wouldn't even register in the North.  Of course, I know that the South isn't used to such snowfall and the infrastructure isn't designed to handle it, but still... it's always struck me as somewhat strange.
Folks like taking the day off too :P I think often times the media makes things look a lot worse than it really is. Can't blame them. I mean how often does Atlanta get 4in of snow? Haha
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 12, 2011, 10:45:53 PM
We only got less than an inch of snow, and some is still on the ground because it is so darn cold here. :brr:
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Eric on January 12, 2011, 11:13:18 PM
We only got less than an inch of snow, and some is still on the ground because it is so darn cold here. :brr:

I can imagine 30° seems cold in Dallas!  In Massachusetts, it's quite a good day, and in Russia, where I lived for quite a while, it's a veritable heat wave!
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 13, 2011, 09:41:50 PM
We only got less than an inch of snow, and some is still on the ground because it is so darn cold here. :brr:

I can imagine 30° seems cold in Dallas!  In Massachusetts, it's quite a good day, and in Russia, where I lived for quite a while, it's a veritable heat wave!

You're definetely right about that. :P I dislike any temperature under 60 degrees, but I'm sure anything above 40 is like a heatwave in Massachusetts, right?
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Eric on January 14, 2011, 10:19:29 AM
We only got less than an inch of snow, and some is still on the ground because it is so darn cold here. :brr:

I can imagine 30° seems cold in Dallas!  In Massachusetts, it's quite a good day, and in Russia, where I lived for quite a while, it's a veritable heat wave!

You're definetely right about that. :P I dislike any temperature under 60 degrees, but I'm sure anything above 40 is like a heatwave in Massachusetts, right?

Well, we usually experience a January thaw with temperatures as high as the 60s every year, and this lasts for anywhere from a couple of days to a week.  Hasn't happened yet this year, though, and I think the recent winter storm is to blame.  Actually, we've got much colder air coming in now, so we might have to skip our thaw for the year.   :cry3:
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 14, 2011, 03:18:24 PM

Well, we usually experience a January thaw with temperatures as high as the 60s every year, and this lasts for anywhere from a couple of days to a week.  Hasn't happened yet this year, though, and I think the recent winter storm is to blame.  Actually, we've got much colder air coming in now, so we might have to skip our thaw for the year.   :cry3:
Should get a nice heavy rain to wash some of that snow away
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Mr. Rainman on January 14, 2011, 11:52:32 PM
WOW, this is an incredible image. It almost reminds me of the Day After Tomorrow!

Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: TWCToday on January 14, 2011, 11:55:45 PM
WOW, this is an incredible image. It almost reminds me of the Day After Tomorrow!


Umm excuse me mother nature. There is a hole in my snow!
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Lightning on January 15, 2011, 03:14:40 PM
For places north of here that did get snow, a lot of that hasn't even melted since it has continued to be cold all week.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 15, 2011, 03:59:36 PM
I don't think any of the 6.5 inches of snow I got on my side of the street has melted due to the sheet of ice that accumulated on top of it I'm sure acting as a shield from the sunlight, but the same can't be said for the other side of the street virtually all gone and has been for the past couple of days. The sun always kills the snowfall on that side of the street, but on my side it sticks around for a week or longer even if it rains or it gets up into the 50's/60's!
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 15, 2011, 04:12:03 PM
I don't think any of the 6.5 inches of snow I got on my side of the street has melted due to the sheet of ice that accumulated on top of it I'm sure acting as a shield from the sunlight, but the same can't be said for the other side of the street virtually all gone and has been for the past couple of days. The sun always kills the snowfall on that side of the street, but on my side it sticks around for a week or longer even if it rains or it gets up into the 50's/60's!

All the snowfall (well, a miniscule less than one inch) is finally gone. But it lasted almost a week because of darn cold temperatures and lack of sun.
Title: Re: Possible Winter Storm in the south Sunday and Monday
Post by: Lightning on January 15, 2011, 05:44:26 PM
Well, up in the northern portion of Alabama, like in Huntsville, snow remains on the ground.