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Author Topic: Ask The Weather Expert!  (Read 28638 times)

Offline Zach

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #60 on: January 28, 2011, 05:21:39 AM »
Yeah, Tampa has had a pretty intense winter this year (although 2010 was still more intense).. I actually enjoy it (usually i sweat my :censored: off for 10 months of the year :P)
I've gone off on a journey to be a moderator at another forum, but this place will forever remain home for me~

Offline Mike M

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #61 on: February 02, 2011, 10:50:33 PM »
Mike, unfortunately, we're in a pattern that has been persistent for a couple months now.  The upper level flow continues to bring storms up the coast towards you, and nothing has changed this pattern yet.  The atmosphere can get stuck in blocking patterns and repeat over and over the same weather situations until something breaks it.  I can't tell you when it'll happen though as predicting when blocks start or end in weather is a really difficult task.
Is that why I haven't seen any days where we would have 60+ degree weather for short time this year as well as last year?

Offline Donovan

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #62 on: February 02, 2011, 11:19:59 PM »
Do you know if temperatures will rise over the next month, or will they stay cold/frigid?

phw115wvwx

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #63 on: February 03, 2011, 07:33:23 AM »
Is that why I haven't seen any days where we would have 60+ degree weather for short time this year as well as last year?
I'm afraid so, Mike.  We've been stuck with a persistent upper-level trough over the East for a while with very few breaks at times, which has kept us cold.  No upper-level ridge has yet been able to sit overhead of us for a period of time.

Do you know if temperatures will rise over the next month, or will they stay cold/frigid?
It's hard to predict out to a month for obvious reasons.  The models are showing a cold spell for next week, but I would think as time goes on that temperatures will slowly warm up as the angle of the Sun gets higher in the sky through February.  It's just going to take a while.

Offline Donovan

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #64 on: February 03, 2011, 08:18:16 PM »
Does an upper level low bring precip? If so do they always or just when the dew-point is high enough?

phw115wvwx

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #65 on: February 03, 2011, 09:06:29 PM »
An upper-level trough usually brings unsettled and cooler weather over the long term.  You'll often see disturbances spin around the trough, so you get more precipitation if you're on the periphery of it.  If you're right under the core of the trough, it'll just be really cold.  Ridges and troughs aloft are strongly connected to the mean temperature throughout the atmosphere in that area.

Offline Mr. Rainman

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #66 on: February 19, 2011, 12:28:29 AM »
Hi, again.

There's been debate over a certain youtube video floating around about the type of cloud this plane is flying over in Australia. Based on what looks like "bursting tops," I'd say these are fully developed CB Incis clouds. What do you think?

Here's the link:
Cabin Crew announcement approaching thunderstorm flying at 40,000 feet
Tiddlywinks.

phw115wvwx

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #67 on: February 19, 2011, 02:57:44 AM »
I'm pretty sure that plane went through the top portion of a cumulonimbus cloud, and it was probably a pretty intense thunderstorm if the flight level is correct.  The turbulence shown in the video makes sense.  Mature cumulonimbus clouds will have overshooting tops when the updrafts in the cloud finally reach their equilibrium point in terms of buoyancy, and the momentum from rising up so much takes them just over that point.  You could see the anvil spreading out towards the end.

Offline Donovan

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #68 on: February 24, 2011, 08:31:23 PM »
During the course of this week the forecast went like this from both local tv met and weather.com for FRIDAY.

Monday-Wednesday
Weather.com:T-Storms 70%
Local TV Met: Few showers 20%

Wednesday/Thursday Morning:
Weather.com: Sct. Storms 40%
Local Met: 30%

Thursday Night:
Weather.com: T-storms/wind 60%
Local Met: Sct Showers 40%.

I was wondering who to believe since they both don't agree. Is their any particular reason that this happens?

phw115wvwx

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #69 on: February 25, 2011, 04:48:30 AM »
The forecasts on weather.com can be too pessimistic with precipitation.  Remember, TWC is trying to forecast for the whole country.  Your local meteorologist is only forecasting for your area, and he should know more about the geography and the local weather patterns.  In your case, the local meteorologist thinks the chances are not as good for rain compared to the weather.com forecast.  So, put them to the test by verifying their forecasts to what actually happens.  On average, the local meteorologist ought to do a better job if he really knows your area well.

Offline P71nnacle

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #70 on: February 25, 2011, 09:54:29 PM »
I have a minor in Meteorology, so I kind of am a semi-expert in the field  :happy: I was asked today what the ideal conditions for freezing fog would be....my initial response was that it was far easier to do it in the mountains than around sea level because of more consistent cloud cover and cooler temps, but I wonder if in marine climates, if advection fog would be able to freeze the water more easily because of its higher dewpoint temperature. What do you think? (Like I said, it's a little bit more complicated of a question.  :thumbsup:

phw115wvwx

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #71 on: February 26, 2011, 04:49:49 AM »
I have a minor in Meteorology, so I kind of am a semi-expert in the field  :happy: I was asked today what the ideal conditions for freezing fog would be....my initial response was that it was far easier to do it in the mountains than around sea level because of more consistent cloud cover and cooler temps, but I wonder if in marine climates, if advection fog would be able to freeze the water more easily because of its higher dewpoint temperature. What do you think? (Like I said, it's a little bit more complicated of a question.  :thumbsup:
Sea salt is an ice nuclei, so you can get the supercooled water droplets to freeze on to them.  The major issue is that you have the warmer water below you.  You can't cool as efficiently in marine climates due to the higher moisture content, so freezing fog is more common over higher elevations.  But if you can keep everything below freezing at the surface, you can still get freezing fog in marine climates.

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #72 on: June 18, 2011, 10:38:40 AM »
I have a question pertaining to derechoes. Would the line of thunderstorms moving SSE into Tn (and eventually in my neck of the woods) be considered one? I know they travel very long distances w/o weakening and "bow out" causing tremendous amounts of damaging winds, but the problem is I don't know where this line of storms originated from before they got to KY so I can't say for sure how long they have been going. I do know they have caused wind damage, but regular squallines can do that as well. I provided a picture of it on radar circled in red. There's another one right on the heels of it I circled in blue. This brings up another question: Will it weaken from the one already in front of it since I'm sure it will stablize the air or will it be able to hold together and possibly provide a round two for us?  The SPC mesoscale discussion mentioned they would likely issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for TN N. AL, and N. GA within the hour for these storms because of higher CAPE and instability here. They didn't mention whether this was a derecho or if it will evolve into one later which is why I was hoping to get some thoughts and opinions on it. :happy:


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phw115wvwx

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #73 on: June 18, 2011, 02:04:45 PM »
These two features are mesoscale convective systems.  If you ever see "MCS" in a forecast discussion or hear someone on TV mention it, that's the acronym for this system.  A MCS is simply an organized cluster of thunderstorms.  Usually, each MCS has its own circulation as clearly shown in your picture.  They can form anywhere from the mid-latitudes to the tropics, and some tropical waves that potentially become hurricanes may start out as a MCS.  In the United States, they develop most often during late spring through summer in the northern Great Plains and migrate eastward.

The two MCSs shown here aren't bowing out and producing large swaths of 70-110 mph winds, which is what you need for derechos.  These MCSs are actually propagating southeastward if you watch them on satellite, and it looked like the second system was stronger and had more unstable air to its south.  Wind is most likely the biggest threat in regards to severe weather.  Hope that helps!

Offline toxictwister00

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Re: Ask The Weather Expert!
« Reply #74 on: June 18, 2011, 05:14:33 PM »
Yes, Patrick it did help.  :happy: Well the first line I thought was coming for us went well east into the Carolinas, but the second one is entering NW GA now and out of nowhere storms start firing immediately around Atlanta. Gotta love those pop up storms.



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