TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => General Weather Chat => Topic started by: Squizz on September 14, 2008, 12:07:17 AM
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What Hurricanes in 2008 do you think will be retired? My predictions are Gustav and Ike. Any other ideas?
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Dolly.
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So far I see only Ike being retired. Nothing else has come close, IMO.
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They may retire Fay after all that flooding in Florida. :thinking:
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Fay wasn't major. They won't remove it. Most hurricanes of any strength flood Florida (and Louisiana, and Texas, and so forth) because of the proximity to sea level.
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They may retire Fay after all that flooding in Florida. :thinking:
Fay never reached Hurricane Status.
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They may retire Fay after all that flooding in Florida. :thinking:
Fay never reached Hurricane Status.
that is the LAST thing they look at when names are retired...
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They may retire Fay after all that flooding in Florida. :thinking:
Fay never reached Hurricane Status.
It doesn't matter if it reaches hurricane status or not. Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 was retired, and the storm never reached hurricane status (and it didn't even come close). It just sat over Texas for days dumping rain across the Houston area, causing major flooding, like Fay did in Florida.
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Allison was noted as the worst tropical storm on record where it hit. The damages were alot costlier than Fay and also more deaths.
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IMO, Ike isthe only storm so far that even comes CLOSE to being retired. I wouldn't expect any other storm so far this year to even be considered for retirement.
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Looking at the death tolls for each storm thus far, Hanna has caused the most deaths (532) because of all the devastation it caused in Hispaniola. IMO, Hanna might have a pretty good chance at being retired.
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Looking at the death tolls for each storm thus far, Hanna has caused the most deaths (532) because of all the devastation it caused in Hispaniola. IMO, Hanna might have a pretty good chance at being retired.
Seems like a weak measure of consideration to me. Pouring a bucket of water over Hispaniola could cause 532 deaths. It's just the type of terrain you have there.
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Looking at the death tolls for each storm thus far, Hanna has caused the most deaths (532) because of all the devastation it caused in Hispaniola. IMO, Hanna might have a pretty good chance at being retired.
Seems like a weak measure of consideration to me. Pouring a bucket of water over Hispaniola could cause 532 deaths. It's just the type of terrain you have there.
Going back to last year, Noel (a weak Category 1) was retired because it caused 163 deaths in the very same region that Hanna effected.
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Looking at the death tolls for each storm thus far, Hanna has caused the most deaths (532) because of all the devastation it caused in Hispaniola. IMO, Hanna might have a pretty good chance at being retired.
Seems like a weak measure of consideration to me. Pouring a bucket of water over Hispaniola could cause 532 deaths. It's just the type of terrain you have there.
Going back to last year, Noel (a weak Category 1) was retired because it caused 163 deaths in the very same region that Hanna effected.
Hence why I say that death counts in that region are a very weak measure of a storm's intensity. It just seems to me that because a tropical storm causes 500+ deaths in an area mostly made of rocky, mudslide-prone islands, doesn't mean it should be retired. The bigger consideration should be what type of damage it causes to the mainlands.
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I'd say Ike. However, I wouldn't be surprised if even Ike doesn't get retired.
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So far: Dolly, Gustav, Ike.
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So far: Dolly, Gustav, Ike.
You have GOT to be kidding me. :blink:
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Dolly?? Wasn't Dolly just a storm, that caused basically no damage what-so-ever? In fact, I don't even remember where it hit at.
Gustav.. nah. I doubt Gustav will be retired.
Question..why do you think Dolly and Gustav should be retired? :dunno:
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Dolly?? Wasn't Dolly just a storm, that caused basically no damage what-so-ever? In fact, I don't even remember where it hit at.
Gustav.. nah. I doubt Gustav will be retired.
Question..why do you think Dolly and Gustav should be retired? :dunno:
Because TWC has trained people to make mountains out of molehills. :yes:
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Dolly?? Wasn't Dolly just a storm, that caused basically no damage what-so-ever? In fact, I don't even remember where it hit at.
Actually, Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane in South Texas, and it certainly did cause damage (about $1.52 billion). :yes:
Anyways, here are my predictions: Dolly, Fay (possibly), Gustav (possibly), and Ike.
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Gustav was even more deadly than Dolly, as it caused more than 100 fatalities and $20 billion in damage.
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$20 billion in damage.
$20 billion?!? Where did you get that from? :wacko: I Google'd it, and it's only expected to cost (at the most) $7 billion (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/03/insurance.hurricanegustav).
But still, it was a pretty costly storm, and I suppose there's a chance it could be retired. :yes:
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Gustav was even more deadly than Dolly, as it caused more than 100 fatalities and $20 billion in damage.
Gustav killed 100 people? :blink: I thought the report was 8 deaths.
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I think Mike is exaggerating a tiny bit. :happy:
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There were a reported 100 deaths according to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gustav
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There were a reported 100 deaths according to this: [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gustav[/url]
You know you can't trust everything you read on Wikipedia. ;)
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Well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens at the end of the season... :yes:
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rofl Wikipedia says 100 deaths? :rolleyes:
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$20 billion in damage.
$20 billion?!? Where did you get that from? :wacko: I Google'd it, and it's only expected to cost (at the most) $7 billion ([url]http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/03/insurance.hurricanegustav[/url] ([url]http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/03/insurance.hurricanegustav[/url])).
But still, it was a pretty costly storm, and I suppose there's a chance it could be retired. :yes:
Hmm, guess I better edit that Wiki article then. There is a "citation needed" template in there anyway
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I think that 100 death toll was accurate. Here's a news article that seems to confirm that:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/fromthefield/mapinterna/122047019384.htm
With 110-mph winds, Gustav created a 10-foot storm surge and flooded hundreds of homes. Louisiana officials have reported the storm caused at least seven deaths, some due to falling trees. Gustav had already killed nearly 100 people in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Florida.
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My bad, I thought Mike said there were 100 deaths in the US alone.
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My bad, I thought Mike said there were 100 deaths in the US alone.
Yeah, I was talking about overall fatalities, not just in the US.
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Oh man, than that REALLY doesn't mean anything. :no:
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Because TWC has trained people to make mountains out of molehills. :yes:
TWC doesn't retire the names, the National Hurricane Center does.
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Because TWC has trained people to make mountains out of molehills. :yes:
TWC doesn't retire the names, the National Hurricane Center does.
I didn't say they did. All I said is that they've brainwashed people into making a big deal out of even the smallest of storms (in response to those who say storms like Dolly will be retired). I'm very well aware of how this works Squizz. Trust me on that. I've been into this since long before you were even born.
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True that.
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I think Ike will definetly be retired. Not just from the damage caused in the Atlantic islands, not just from what happened in Texas, but afterward. There were such strong wind gusts in Ohio, when Ike's remnants came through, it actually killed people and closed schools. It did almost the same thing, blowing through Canada.
Ike was Katrina 2.0. It'll be retired.
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IMO Ike is the only storm so far that qualifies for retirement.
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IMO Ike is the only storm so far that qualifies for retirement.
Agreed :yes:
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Because TWC has trained people to make mountains out of molehills. :yes:
TWC doesn't retire the names, the National Hurricane Center does.
Actually, you are also wrong, the NHC nor the NWS do not retire hurricane names. Names are retired by the WMO (World Meteorlogical Organization).
Why does everyone here seem to think only Ike will be retired? In 2007, we had three storms retired (Dean, Felix, and Noel). Gustav was more damaging than all three of those storms combined, and Hanna was deadlier than any of those three storms.
Here are my predictions, percentagewise:
Arthur - 4% - not severely damaging.
Bertha - 3% - strong, but once again not severely damaging.
Cristobal - 2% - forgettable, barely damaging at all.
Dolly - 60% - Damage estimate still remains at $1.52 billion several months after its landfall.
Edouard - 5% - Damage total unknown, but once again, probably not severe.
Fay - 25% - Current damage estimate is $180 million, which is significant (especially for a tropical storm), but nothing extremely severe (far short of $1 billion mark).
Gustav - 95% - Very severely damaging, I would be very surprised if it is not retired.
Hanna - 85% - Very deadly, although Gordon (which affected the same area) of 1994 wasn't retired, yet again, Jeanne of 2004 was retired.
Ike - 100% - Third most destructive named hurricane in U.S. history, pretty obvious candidate.
Josephine - 1% - just gave Cape Verde a little breeze and nothing else.
Kyle - 5% - While not severely damaging, Canada got Juan of 2003 retired. However, Kyle was less damaging than Juan, so I don't think it is very likely Kyle will be retired.
Laura - 1% - Fishspinner while tropical.
Marco - 5% - Damage unknown, but probably not severe.
Nana - 0% - Total fishspinner.
Omar - 15% - Still waiting for damage total. Probably more damaging than Edouard and Marco, but we will have to see whether the damage is severe enough for retirement. This is exactly what we have been doing with T.S. Erin last year.
Paloma - 55% - Current damage estimate is $1.4 billion, but we will still have to wait if that estimate is accurate.
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Because TWC has trained people to make mountains out of molehills. :yes:
TWC doesn't retire the names, the National Hurricane Center does.
Actually, you are also wrong, the NHC nor the NWS do not retire hurricane names. Names are retired by the WMO (World Meteorlogical Organization).
Why does everyone here seem to think only Ike will be retired? In 2007, we had three storms retired (Dean, Felix, and Noel). Gustav was more damaging than all three of those storms combined, and Hanna was deadlier than any of those three storms.
Here are my predictions, percentagewise:
Arthur - 4% - not severely damaging.
Bertha - 3% - strong, but once again not severely damaging.
Cristobal - 2% - forgettable, barely damaging at all.
Dolly - 60% - Damage estimate still remains at $1.52 billion several months after its landfall.
Edouard - 5% - Damage total unknown, but once again, probably not severe.
Fay - 25% - Current damage estimate is $180 million, which is significant (especially for a tropical storm), but nothing extremely severe (far short of $1 billion mark).
Gustav - 95% - Very severely damaging, I would be very surprised if it is not retired.
Hanna - 85% - Very deadly, although Gordon (which affected the same area) of 1994 wasn't retired, yet again, Jeanne of 2004 was retired.
Ike - 100% - Third most destructive named hurricane in U.S. history, pretty obvious candidate.
Josephine - 1% - just gave Cape Verde a little breeze and nothing else.
Kyle - 5% - While not severely damaging, Canada got Juan of 2003 retired. However, Kyle was less damaging than Juan, so I don't think it is very likely Kyle will be retired.
Laura - 1% - Fishspinner while tropical.
Marco - 5% - Damage unknown, but probably not severe.
Nana - 0% - Total fishspinner.
Omar - 15% - Still waiting for damage total. Probably more damaging than Edouard and Marco, but we will have to see whether the damage is severe enough for retirement. This is exactly what we have been doing with T.S. Erin last year.
Paloma - 55% - Current damage estimate is $1.4 billion, but we will still have to wait if that estimate is accurate.
I think we all have the right to our opinion.
Imagine, getting sassed by a guy who cares to stop by here once every 6 months, if that. :nono:
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Revisiting the subject, I thought that we should think up of some replacement names, should all of these names be retired by the WMO:
- Replace Dolly with Daphne
- Replace Fay with Fiorenza
- Replace Gustav with Giovanni
- Replace Hanna with Helga
- Replace Ike with Ian
- Replace Paloma with Pamela
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Dolly= Daphne/Devon
Fay= Fiona/Fletcher
Gustav=Grayson/Gina
Hanna= Henry/Haley
Ike= Ilyssa/Ian
Paloma= Patrick/Paige
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Dolly= Daphne/Devon
Fay= Fiona/Fletcher
Gustav=Grayson/Gina
Hanna= Henry/Haley
Ike= Ilyssa/Ian
Paloma= Patrick/Paige
No offense, but replacement names have to match the gender of the name they are replacing, otherwise it would break the pattern of alternating male/female names. Also, Fiona is Frances' replacement, which will be used in 2010.
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Here are my updated retirement probablities. Instead of giving a specific percentage, I will this time group them by tier.
Well, all the TCRs are out, so I decided I should update my probabilities. This time, instead of giving a specific number, I will group them by tiers.
Most definately retired: Gustav, Ike
Probably retired: Dolly, Hanna, Paloma
Possibly retired: Fay, Omar
Probably not retired: Arthur, Kyle
Not retired: All others.