TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Hazardous Weather => Winter Weather => Topic started by: toxictwister00 on January 04, 2014, 09:56:50 AM
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I hope it's ok to start a separate thread for this. I felt it should have a separate thread given the magnitude and extremity of this cold weather.
As this event unfolds, you can post info here on what's happening where you are. For my area, tomorrow into Monday morning looks to be messy as the Arctic front pulls in, there will be developing precip in front, along, and behind the front which will mean a rain changing to snow or a rain changing to mix to snow scenario. The biggest concern where I am is over a FLASH FREEZE. Sunday afternoon will reach a high around 50, but as the front passes, temps are expected to drop 30 or more degrees within a 2-3 hour time period which means whatever precip is still sitting on roads and bridges will freeze immediately and just in time for Monday's morning rush hour.
Here's a snippet of the morning disco from my NWS office for tomorrow and Monday.
MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A VERY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH MOST
OF THE IMPACT BEING DONE WITH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITHIN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL BE A VERY INTERESTING 12 HOUR PERIOD THOUGH AS COLD
AIR RUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE...CHANGING PRECIP TO A MIXTURE
INITIALLY BUT VERY QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF A ROME
TO CLEVELAND LINE. STILL A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS
LOCATION WITH TOP DOWN METHOD EVEN INDICATING A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIP ENDS FROM LAGRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA.
AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH AS I AM WORRIED HOW RAPIDLY PRECIP PULLS
OUT. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS AND WPC
GUIDANCE BUT AM LEANING ON THE LOW END AT THIS POINT GIVEN LIMITED
WRAP AROUND INITIALLY. BIGGER ISSUE FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY TEMPERATURES DROP RELATIVE TO PRECIP ENDING WHICH COULD
CREATE A BLACK ICE SITUATION AT THE WORST TIME...NAMELY MORNING
RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC. WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL LIKELY ISSUE EVEN BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...MAYBE
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
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This will definitely be a notable arctic outbreak in the midwest. Not so much here. Looks to moderate by the time it gets here. This really reminds me of the '94 cold outbreak.
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Tavores, your topic is good to put into this relatively unused Winter Weather subforum, so I moved it here. The low on Monday night for my location is threatening to go below 0°F, which has not been seen since January 17, 2009 when it was -4°F. Some of the higher elevations in the WV mountains will drop below -10°F. I would hate to be in North Dakota and Minnesota right now as their highs on Sunday are in the -20°F to -30°F range! Wind chills will be dangerously low as they approach -60°F during Saturday and Sunday nights, which is cold enough to have exposed skin begin to freeze in 30 seconds.
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Tavores, your topic is good to put into this relatively unused Winter Weather subforum, so I moved it here. The low on Monday night for my location is threatening to go below 0°F, which has not been seen since January 17, 2009 when it was -4°F. Some of the higher elevations in the WV mountains will drop below -10°F. I would hate to be in North Dakota and Minnesota right now as their highs on Sunday are in the -20°F to -30°F range! Wind chills will be dangerously low as they approach -60°F during Saturday and Sunday nights, which is cold enough to have exposed skin begin to freeze in 30 seconds.
Our low is forecast to be in the mid to upper single digits (5-7 degrees) which will destroy the record low of 10 set back in 1970. I saw yesterday on other forums where wind chill values would be around -18°F from the GFS. This is gonna be a wild weekend/next week coming up I can't wait to see how it all unfolds! :thrilled:
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Temperatures could fall to near -20 on Monday Night, and not even get out of the negative single digits on Tuesday. Wind chills are also forecasted to be around -40 in my area!
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I do not want to be out on Monday at all. The high that day is just -9°, and the low Sunday night and Monday night is predicted between -10° and -15°. Wind chills will reach -50°!
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I feel for the folks in Minnesota who are the ones that will hurt most from this. Those poor brave souls are probably building up igloos to stay warm. :lol:
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Active Weather Bulletins across the United States Pertaining to the Extreme Cold or Wintry Weather. Nothing short of amazing if you ask me.
(http://i.imgur.com/ACiubhP.png)
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New England had ours today :o
This morning to now
New Bedford -7°/29° 36° difference
Fall River -6°/28° = 34° difference
Wareham -6°/30° = 36° difference
Plymouth -7°/28° = 35° difference
Brockton -9°/26° = 35° difference
Taunton -12/31° = 43° difference
Norwood -15°/25° = 40° difference
Swansea -10°/29° = 39° difference
Compared to forecasted highs for Monday
New Bedford -7°/53° = 60° difference
Fall River -6°/52° = 58° difference
Wareham -6°/50° = 56° difference
Plymouth -7°/53° = 60° difference
Brockton -9°/51° = 60° difference
Taunton -12/50° = 62° difference
Norwood -15°/52° = 67° difference
Swansea -10°/52° = 62° difference
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Very frustrating how any precipitation wants to completely skip over Texas (excluding the panhandle). :angry: We didn't receive anything from the last storm and won't from this one. At this rate, the drought in the state is only going to worsen if no precipitation falls, which will lead to a nasty 2014.
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Very frustrating how any precipitation wants to completely skip over Texas (excluding the panhandle). :angry: We didn't receive anything from the last storm and won't from this one. At this rate, the drought in the state is only going to worsen if no precipitation falls, which will lead to a nasty 2014.
Yeah, in order to help you out on the precip side, the developing surface low pressure would need to dig much further south towards the Gulf of Mexico so it can draw up some precipitation from there. As soon as the low develops and deepens, it's already in Central Arkansas shooting on up into the Great Lakes/W. NY state into Eastern Canada.
If I had any control over the weather, I would certainly change that. You just don't know how many times I've wished that was possible. :P
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Hmm... NWS just dropped our temperatures for Monday. Looks like the cold will be dipping farther south. First time I can remember seeing the "Cold" icon on the 7-day for Dallas in awhile (and some of you are probably laughing right now :P).
(http://s17.postimg.org/t8u0ft2yn/Cold_7_Day.png)
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Hmm... NWS just dropped our temperatures for Monday. Looks like the cold will be dipping farther south. First time I can remember seeing the "Cold" icon on the 7-day for Dallas in awhile (and some of you are probably laughing right now :P).
([url]http://s17.postimg.org/t8u0ft2yn/Cold_7_Day.png[/url])
Maybe a little... :lol:
If the 0z GFS run tonight verifies I'm not getting above 20 Tuesday with 25-35 mph winds. On top of that throw in the chance of snow showers. :brr: :brr: :brr: I have no idea what that equates to in wind chill value, but if I were to spitball it probably not far from -20°F
30°F is still cold if you throw in some stiff NW winds though.
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Tavores, you need a wind chill calculator as your guess was not even close. :P Here, use this page with a handy chart at the top and an actual calculator at the bottom:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml)
Just enter the air temperature and the sustained wind, and it will give you the wind chill value. Do not use wind gusts as they are not suitable for determining what it feels like on average. The wind chill value is only defined for air temperatures above -50°F but below 50°F and for sustained winds above 3 mph but below 110 mph.
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Tavores, you need a wind chill calculator as your guess was not even close. :P Here, use this page with a handy chart at the top and an actual calculator at the bottom:
[url]http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml[/url] ([url]http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml[/url])
Just enter the air temperature and the sustained wind, and it will give you the wind chill value. Do not use wind gusts as they are not suitable for determining what it feels like on average. The wind chill value is only defined for air temperatures above -50°F but below 50°F and for sustained winds above 3 mph but below 110 mph.
Yeah, WAY off. :lol: My guess would have been close if I was talking about our forecast low instead though.
Wind Chill Advisory was issued along with a Winter Weather Advisory (does not include Atlanta metro)
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014
GAZ022-023-033-034-044-045-053>055-060000-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WC.Y.0002.140106T1600Z-140107T1800Z/
FORSYTH-HALL-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-COWETA-
FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...
EAST POINT...DECATUR...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY
627 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY.
* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
* HAZARD TYPES...LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.
* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 10 BELOW.
* TIMING...MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...FROST BITE WHICH CAN LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN.
* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE
OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.
&&
$$
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I've ended up with an inch of snow. It's not a lot, but it counts. It's 9 °F right now, and it's supposed to get into the single digits again tonight.
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If anyone wants to keep track of the progress of the cold, Intellicast's interactive temperature map is really good. The front has gone through Little Rock, AR and temps dropped from 54 to 42 within 30 minutes!
Temp Gradients in AR is crazy, Fayetteville is 18 while Pine Bluff is 54.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=33.75&longitude=-84.39&zoomLevel=8&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0055,0120 (http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=33.75&longitude=-84.39&zoomLevel=8&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0055,0120)
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If anyone wants to keep track of the progress of the cold, Intellicast's interactive temperature map is really good. The front has gone through Little Rock, AR and temps dropped from 54 to 42 within 30 minutes!
[url]http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=33.75&longitude=-84.39&zoomLevel=8&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0055,0120[/url] ([url]http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=33.75&longitude=-84.39&zoomLevel=8&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0055,0120[/url])
Meh, I've witnessed a summer thunderstorm that brought our temps down from 84 to 64 within 30 minutes.
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Brisk northerly winds behind the front. Speeds have been sustained between 20 and 30 mph since this morning, with gusts generally between 30 and 35 mph.
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If anyone wants to keep track of the progress of the cold, Intellicast's interactive temperature map is really good. The front has gone through Little Rock, AR and temps dropped from 54 to 42 within 30 minutes!
[url]http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=33.75&longitude=-84.39&zoomLevel=8&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0055,0120[/url] ([url]http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=33.75&longitude=-84.39&zoomLevel=8&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0055,0120[/url])
Meh, I've witnessed a summer thunderstorm that brought our temps down from 84 to 64 within 30 minutes.
It's not a competition. :lol: Besides, you can't really compare a temp drop that involves heat to a temp drop that involves cold. It's day and night the way they work.
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Let the excitement begin! :thrilled: :biggrin:
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Dallas and surrounding counties in north Texas are now under a Wind Chill Advisory (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ118&warncounty=TXC439&firewxzone=TXZ118&local_place1=&product1=Wind+Chill+Advisory#.Usn1NNF3uM8) for wind chills near zero degrees or slightly below.
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Even more impressive than yesterday.
(http://i.imgur.com/lVwMyuK.png)
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Here in my area of Alabama, the low temperature Tuesday morning is supposed to be about 8. Here's the advisories from my National Weather Service office:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2014
ALZ011>015-017>050-070030-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
622 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A BRIEF MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE WINDOW FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOURS BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE...TO CALERA...TO ROANOKE. A LIGHT ICE GLAZE OF LESS
THAN ONE TENTH INCH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH
ARE POSSIBLE. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES AFTER 3AM MONDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 20S SOUTHEAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
THE COMBINATION OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP WIND
CHILL VALUES TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
THE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THAT RECEIVE ACCUMULATING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE...BUT WE ARE CERTAIN OF THE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND
POTENTIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM 4 TO 15 DEGREES AREAWIDE... WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING...WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO DEGREES TO THE MID TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
DROP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM BELOW ZERO TO THE LOWER
TEENS THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY.
A DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY OVERNIGHT.
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We've reached our daytime high of 51°F and now temperatures are beginning their downward spiral.
The arctic front rolled in after midnight
12:15am - 51°F
12:35am - 47.6°F
Temperature dropped nearly 4 degrees in 20 minutes. :o
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25°F Partly to Mostly Cloudy
We've been having flurries/light snow off and on this morning. :happy:
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Those of you who live in the eastern half of the US, please keep warm in all ways possible. I saw on CNN that because of this historic Arctic air, a PDS warning has been issued. :o It's very rare to have PDS warnings being issued for something other than tornadoes. :blink:
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Several N. GA counties have closed schools for tomorrow. Atlanta metro area is closing schools tomorrow also.
Parts of N. GA (just barely north of Atlanta) are under Wind Chill Warnings. One of our Local Mets said it's the first time in his 29 years here forecasting wx for Georgia he as ever had to make a graphic for on-air pertaining to that. Wind chill values expected to reach -30°F who are under the warning! :o Those of us in the Wind Chill Advisory can expect wind chill values as low as possibly -15°F!
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I'm wondering if schools will close here too. Not because of the cold, schools here don't close for anything. But the ice potential. We had a half a foot of snow melt this morning thanks to heavy snow eating fog and temps in the 50's and some rain, temps dropping like a rock should solidify everything. It will be a skating rink around here. First flash freeze in several years.
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Oh boy! Here we GO! Down into the upper teens already, we got down to around 24 this morning and rose back up to high as 27(28 at Hartsfield Int'l) around the 2pm hour and have been dropping ever since.
Current Temperature: 19.7°F Wind Chill: 5°F Dewpoint: -1°F
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We picked up 10" of snow from yesterday's winter storm, deepening our snow pack to around 17".
Now, we're at -9°F with a wind speed of 24 mph, creating a wind chill of -36. Lows could dip to -20°F tonight, with wind chills between -40 and -50°F
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We picked up 10" of snow from yesterday's winter storm, deepening our snow pack to around 17".
Now, we're at -9°F with a wind speed of 24 mph, creating a wind chill of -36. Lows could dip to -20°F tonight, with wind chills between -40 and -50°F
WOW! It really makes my single digit forecast low and subzero wind chill readings sound balmy in comparison. :blink:
Also props to the ECMWF (European Model) for sniffing out this Arctic Outbreak a week in advance before the other models and sticking to it's guns on it happening. :thumbsup:
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Still 34.7
Winter cancel :P
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And to add, pattern shows a mild turn around. +EPO, +NAO going to do the dirty work. All next week looks in the 50's.
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The low at DFW dropped down to 15 degrees this morning, and the lowest reported wind chill was 1 degree. I know that may sound lame to what most of you are dealing with, but that's still unusually cold for Dallas.
(Had I been back in Norman I would have dealt with a low temperature of 4 degrees and a minimum wind chill of -9 degrees.)
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12.6°F currently here using the weather station from Georgia Tech (since it's the closest to where I live) from wunderground.com Wind chill is 0°F
The airport is 13°F, wind chill is -4°F!
This is the second coldest I've ever seen it get here in my entire life I can remember.
EDIT: I didn't realize Wunderground displays a weather station from TWC HQ with my zipcode. It says the temperature is 10.6°F with a wind chill of -4°F currently.
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Thanks to this Arctic blast, my low this morning was -5°F. Every climate site in my area set a new record low.
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Compared to Saturday, Monday, and Today.
Fall River, -9°, 57°, 13° = 110° Total Temperature Swing.
Norwood, -15°, 57°, 12° = 132° Total Temperature Swing.
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We shattered our record low of 10°F set back in 1970 when we dropped down to 6°F! Wind chill hovered around -10°F at that time.
This morning is now the coldest morning I have ever been through (well that I can remember) in my 21 years living down here. We got down to 8°F back in the January 2003 Arctic Outbreak. The 6°F was the coldest temps we had seen since February 1996. Our high today was 25°F.
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We shattered our record low of 10°F set back in 1970 when we dropped down to 6°F! Wind chill hovered around -10°F at that time.
This morning is now the coldest morning I have ever been through (well that I can remember) in my 21 years living down here. We got down to 8°F back in the January 2003 Arctic Outbreak. The 6°F was the coldest temps we had seen since February 1996. Our high today was 25°F.
Wow. You were colder than man last night. Got down to 7.6 degrees. Further west, NYC got down to 4 degrees, breaks the record (I've been waiting several years for NYC to see a rec low). :dance:
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We may have a Part II coming soon folks...We'll have to wait and see how things shape up after MLK Day, it looks very interesting.
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via Jeremy Reiner on Channel 7
(http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BeLRxIWIQAEEfV2.jpg)
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It looks like the next arctic outbreak is going to be confined farther north and east. The current NWS forecast shows my area dropping to highs in the mid-40s at best, with lows in the upper-20s. That's nothing compared to what we had earlier this winter! :P
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It looks like the next arctic outbreak is going to be confined farther north and east. The current NWS forecast shows my area dropping to highs in the mid-40s at best, with lows in the upper-20s. That's nothing compared to what we had earlier this winter! :P
Completely forget what I said a few days ago. :repost: Forecasts are now showing two big drops in temperatures, one tomorrow and one (more major) on Thursday. If the forecast verifies, the high on Thursday will only be 28 24 degrees, with a low that night dropping down into the mid-teens upper single-digits. :brr:
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I am so sick of winter. It's been too cold and it's staying cold. No change in this pattern for the foreseeable future. :hmm: Friday morning it's supposed to go down to 10 degrees! :brr: