Weather Discussion > Forecasting
Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
TWCCraig:
Thought I should start a thread. Gives this little subforum life. Feel free to discuss anything, your local weather complaints, to weather pattern discussion etc. :thumbsup:
The majority of us are wondering where is spring? It really hasn't been here for most. I know Mac in Grand Forks is really hoping for some warmer weather. Luckily he'll get some starting this Friday. Anyway, good news going into the long range. One of the reasons why we've been so cold is because of where the all this cold air is coming from, Canada. H5 heights have been pretty low in the Hudson Bay area and north. This time last year, southern Canada was pretty thawed out. Not so much this year. With decent snow pack in Canada and a favorable cool pattern there, it has been an unrelentless supply of cold air. Places in the North Central US have temp departures about -10°F to -15°F. Here's the good news. Models have been signaling for a rise in heights and warm up over the northern central plains extending into Canada. This should begin the thawing out of Canada and ultimately diminishing our supply of cold air.
While the warmer temps in Canada eat away our cold air supply, the CFSv2 weeklies have been signaling a warm up, and possibly a major warm up, the first two weeks of May. It starts off warm in the northeast and then spreads south and west into the mid west. A Quebec ridge builds up then spreads west for the first two weeks of May. Having an ideal ridge to our north is a good spot for a potential heat wave. Anymore north and east the ridge and we could be talking some back door cold fronts.
With the diminishing cold air supply heading into May, I think we'll start seeing above average monthly departures again.
phw115wvwx:
Last year, we had a major La Niņa event along with other factors that gave us one of the warmest starts to any year in recent history. We were actually due for a correction, and we got it this year with all the cold and ice to the north. We actually remained neutral with the ENSO cycle this past winter, but the Arctic Oscillation going negative a lot really sparked this long cold spell. The models generally do better with warm surges rather than cold surges based on what fellow forecasters have told me at work, so I would have some hope with this solution.
Mr. Rainman:
Best news I've heard all year. Our latest forecasts puts our high in Grand Forks at a resounding 62 by next Sunday, which is average for this time of year. The downside is that the rapid thaw will also allow for the Red River to start flooding like crazy. Fargo is going to be in for a rough year due to flooding. Luckily, Grand Forks was smart and built a wall. :rofl2:
WeatherWitness:
Indeed this spring has been very strange, especially here in Oklahoma. These weekly cold blasts have been too much for me, but on the contrary, all this rain is definitely a good thing. We're picking up 2 to 3 inches with every weekly system that has been moving through here; definitely good for relieving the drought.
I just wonder what summer will bring. Will we be suffering through more relentless triple-digit heat and be back in a drought, or will it be milder and wetter like spring has been?
toxictwister00:
I sure would love it if this Summer was like it was back in 2005 mainly to be reassurance that we can manage to keep our drought-free status going through the remainder of the year.
Now of course a lot of the rain we got that year was because of the record breaking hurricane season, we got hit by Arlene, Cindy, Dennis, and Katrina that year with June and July accumulating double digit rainfall. I've never seen that much rainfall during the Summer months since. I believe that Summer was fairly cool compared to normal. I don't recall a lot of 90s that year. :no: A lot more 70s and 80s because of the hurricanes and garden variety thunderstorms.
Great write up Craig btw. :thumbsup:
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