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Weather Discussion => Forecasting => Topic started by: TWCCraig on April 22, 2013, 06:51:23 PM

Title: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on April 22, 2013, 06:51:23 PM
Thought I should start a thread. Gives this little subforum life. Feel free to discuss anything, your local weather complaints, to weather pattern discussion etc.  :thumbsup:

The majority of us are wondering where is spring? It really hasn't been here for most. I know Mac in Grand Forks is really hoping for some warmer weather. Luckily he'll get some starting this Friday.  Anyway, good news going into the long range. One of the reasons why we've been so cold is because of where the all this cold air is coming from, Canada. H5 heights have been pretty low in the Hudson Bay area and north. This time last year, southern Canada was pretty thawed out. Not so much this year. With decent snow pack in Canada and a favorable cool pattern there, it has been an unrelentless supply of cold air. Places in the North Central US have temp departures about -10°F to -15°F. Here's the good news. Models have been signaling for a rise in heights and warm up over the northern central plains extending into Canada. This should begin the thawing out of Canada and ultimately diminishing our supply of cold air.

(http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5874/f168.gif)

While the warmer temps in Canada eat away our cold air supply, the CFSv2 weeklies have been signaling a warm up, and possibly a major warm up, the first two weeks of May. It starts off warm in the northeast and then spreads south and west into the mid west. A Quebec ridge builds up then spreads west for the first two weeks of May. Having an ideal ridge to our north is a good spot for a potential heat wave. Anymore north and east the ridge and we could be talking some back door cold fronts.

(http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/9562/wk1wk220130421z500.gif)

(http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/6730/wk3wk420130421z500.gif)

(http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/446/wk1wk220130421nasfct.gif)

(http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/8536/wk3wk420130421nasfct.gif)

With the diminishing cold air supply heading into May, I think we'll start seeing above average monthly departures again.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on April 22, 2013, 08:46:46 PM
Last year, we had a major La Niña event along with other factors that gave us one of the warmest starts to any year in recent history.  We were actually due for a correction, and we got it this year with all the cold and ice to the north.  We actually remained neutral with the ENSO cycle this past winter, but the Arctic Oscillation going negative a lot really sparked this long cold spell.  The models generally do better with warm surges rather than cold surges based on what fellow forecasters have told me at work, so I would have some hope with this solution.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Mr. Rainman on April 22, 2013, 10:10:57 PM
Best news I've heard all year. Our latest forecasts puts our high in Grand Forks at a resounding 62 by next Sunday, which is average for this time of year. The downside is that the rapid thaw will also allow for the Red River to start flooding like crazy. Fargo is going to be in for a rough year due to flooding. Luckily, Grand Forks was smart and built a wall.   :rofl2:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on April 23, 2013, 12:04:33 AM
Indeed this spring has been very strange, especially here in Oklahoma.  These weekly cold blasts have been too much for me, but on the contrary, all this rain is definitely a good thing.  We're picking up 2 to 3 inches with every weekly system that has been moving through here; definitely good for relieving the drought.

I just wonder what summer will bring.  Will we be suffering through more relentless triple-digit heat and be back in a drought, or will it be milder and wetter like spring has been?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 23, 2013, 01:24:38 PM
I sure would love it if this Summer was like it was back in 2005 mainly to be reassurance that we can manage to keep our drought-free status going through the remainder of the year.

Now of course a lot of the rain we got that year was because of the record breaking hurricane season, we got hit by Arlene, Cindy, Dennis, and Katrina that year with June and July accumulating double digit rainfall. I've never seen that much rainfall during the Summer months since. I believe that Summer was fairly cool compared to normal. I don't recall a lot of 90s that year. :no: A lot more 70s and 80s because of the hurricanes and garden variety thunderstorms.

Great write up Craig btw. :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on April 23, 2013, 02:38:55 PM
Great write up Craig btw. :thumbsup:

Thanks Tavores.  :happy:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on April 26, 2013, 09:10:30 AM
Next week looks hideous for us. Cutoff low to our west brings an endless supply of clouds, fog, and rain. Also the possibility of record cold in the midwest. It's going to feel like the Pacific Northwest around here next week.  :(
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on April 26, 2013, 02:55:24 PM
Amazing cutoff low forms from a deep trough axis. Behind in, pooling in insanely cold air. GFS has snow as far south as Atlanta. They would beat their latest snowfall date of April 25 set in 1910 if it were to occur. Definitely a storm that needs to be watched.

(http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/2738/f174.gif)

(http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/7034/usaptypesfc171.gif)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 26, 2013, 04:24:55 PM
I never thought I would say this, but I hope it doesn't snow so I'm rooting for the GFS to be wrong. It's almost May, ain't nobody got time fo dat. :lol:

EDIT: I also hope this doesn't happen because I have to get my wisdom teeth pulled on the 3rd (next Friday)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on April 27, 2013, 08:15:46 PM
I never thought I would say this, but I hope it doesn't snow so I'm rooting for the GFS to be wrong. It's almost May, ain't nobody got time fo dat. :lol:

EDIT: I also hope this doesn't happen because I have to get my wisdom teeth pulled on the 3rd (next Friday)

I was supposed to get my wisdom tooth pulled this past Thursday, also some baby teeth. But there's too many teeth that are still very deep and are on the nerve. So I need to get surgery done in the hospital sometime this May so I can get invisaligns.

Anyway, The GFS caved the Euro for a more western solution. If any snow threat, it would be in the plains around Nebraska and Kansas. Good stretch of weather inbound for the northeast. Very dry as well. High pressure really dominates the area. Only 0.39" of precip on the 16-day GFS plot and none of that in the next week. If this pattern continues, I can see the parts of the northeast going into a severe drought that may plague this summer and make it a hot one. But 60's and 70's for next couple of weeks isn't bad. Nice warm up next weekend might gives us our second shot of 80 degree temps. Really worried that the drought situation might escalate.

(http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/3867/bestweather.jpg)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Mr. Rainman on April 27, 2013, 09:32:47 PM
Craig, if you don't mind me asking, where do you get that tabulated data? I've been trying to find (or make) something like that for quite a while.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on April 27, 2013, 11:55:30 PM
Craig, if you don't mind me asking, where do you get that tabulated data? I've been trying to find (or make) something like that for quite a while.


Here: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/archive.shtml?text=KISP&run=2013042718 (http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/archive.shtml?text=KISP&run=2013042718)

Here's another one which includes 925mb forecasts: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KISP (http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KISP)

Just type in your airport code.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on April 28, 2013, 05:22:54 PM
TWC is forecasting a spring/summer from May on with above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall for much of the U.S.  Come to think of it, I remember them forecasting that nearly every year for as long as I've been watching.  This April has been known for its cooler weather, though.  It's been noted that the severe weather side of things will be getting off to a slow start this May, and they were quick to point out that this has been the case for the last several Mays.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on April 28, 2013, 07:16:45 PM
If I can recall, TWC made a big point about March being below-average for the number of tornadoes because it was so cold, and the jet stream was a lot further south than it should have been.  But, they assured, this would all change by April - the jet stream would move north, April would be warm again, and severe weather would return.  Well guess what?  This didn't happen. 

Now we're at the end of April, and TWC is making a big point about April being below-average for number of tornadoes because it was so cold, and the jet stream was a lot further south than it should have been.  But, they assure, this will all change by May - the jet stream will move north, May will be above average in terms of temperatures for a lot of the country, and severe weather will ramp up.  So, is it just me, or is this deja vu?  I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but with this early-May cold blast, I am skeptical about a long-lasting warm-up anytime soon. :thinking:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on April 28, 2013, 09:21:28 PM
That makes sense.  They're recycling their forecasts.  I guess it's another way of going green.  :yes:  With yet another cold front coming even for me this week, it does seem a little repetitive.

They're actually bothering to report Tor:Con's of 3 for various midwestern locales.  I can tell they want some severe weather to forecast/cover, but they're not getting much.  During that last storm chase video I saw, it sounded almost like the chasers were disappointed at the dissipation of the storms.  :happy:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on April 28, 2013, 10:10:21 PM
If I can recall, TWC made a big point about March being below-average for the number of tornadoes because it was so cold, and the jet stream was a lot further south than it should have been.  But, they assured, this would all change by April - the jet stream would move north, April would be warm again, and severe weather would return.  Well guess what?  This didn't happen. 

Now we're at the end of April, and TWC is making a big point about April being below-average for number of tornadoes because it was so cold, and the jet stream was a lot further south than it should have been.  But, they assure, this will all change by May - the jet stream will move north, May will be above average in terms of temperatures for a lot of the country, and severe weather will ramp up.  So, is it just me, or is this deja vu?  I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but with this early-May cold blast, I am skeptical about a long-lasting warm-up anytime soon. :thinking:

In the nation's heartland, yes, April was still pretty cool. But for the east coast and west coast this April is close to average compared to being below average in March. This May has the potential to be below average, but I don't think it will be that bad based on current guidance and may actually be above average. Who knows.  :dunno:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on April 29, 2013, 09:19:02 PM
Fail by the NAM, Euro, and RGEM. Win for the GFS and GGEM regarding the amount of precip today (0.00"). California like weather here over the next week.

Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. East wind around 8 mph.

Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind 9 to 14 mph.

Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. East wind 7 to 9 mph.

Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.

Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44.

Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 65.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on April 30, 2013, 12:21:59 AM
Tell me this isn't a crazy forecast. :blink:  Guymon is in the Oklahoma panhandle.

(http://s21.postimg.org/vav7ss5af/Guymon_OK_April2013.png)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Localonthe8s on April 30, 2013, 12:48:56 AM
Tell me this isn't a crazy forecast. :blink:  Guymon is in the Oklahoma panhandle.

([url]http://s21.postimg.org/vav7ss5af/Guymon_OK_April2013.png[/url])

Holy crap! :o
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on April 30, 2013, 07:55:58 AM
What is that, exactly?  One wonders if that would be considered a believable forecast were it posted in the weather forecasting contest we have coming up.  ;)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Mr. Rainman on April 30, 2013, 03:34:47 PM
What is that, exactly?  One wonders if that would be considered a believable forecast were it posted in the weather forecasting contest we have coming up.  ;)

Cold front, and a fairly strong one at that.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on April 30, 2013, 04:53:09 PM
What is that, exactly?  One wonders if that would be considered a believable forecast were it posted in the weather forecasting contest we have coming up.  ;)
February through May always feature wacky weather across the United States.  I have seen it go from snow and ice one week, warm with severe thunderstorms in the next week, and then back to cold and snow the following week all for the same place.  It's for this reason that I consider spring more as a transition period between winter and summer than an actual season.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on May 02, 2013, 05:47:36 PM
They've just revised the long-range forecast for May.  Much of the country, particularly the eastern half, will be below average.  Déjà vu, anyone?
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on May 02, 2013, 08:59:10 PM
They've just revised the long-range forecast for May.  Much of the country, particularly the eastern half, will be below average.  Déjà vu, anyone?

That's why I don't bother with 3rd party forecasts and stick to my own. The only other forecast source I trust is the NWS.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on May 03, 2013, 03:43:58 PM
Amazing to see some all-time monthly record low temps being set in the mid-west. Denver, CO; Shreveport, LA; and Galveston, TX all broke their all time coldest May temperatures on record that were originally set in the 1800's. Breaking a daily record low with a station that has data back to the 1800's is hard, but to break all-time monthly record lows is wow!  :o
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on May 03, 2013, 05:45:34 PM
Amazing to see some all-time monthly record low temps being set in the mid-west. Denver, CO; Shreveport, LA; and Galveston, TX all broke their all time coldest May temperatures on record that were originally set in the 1800's. Breaking a daily record low with a station that has data back to the 1800's is hard, but to break all-time monthly record lows is wow!  :o

Yeah, this cold blast has really been something.  At OKC, we set a daily record low of 37 degrees (old record was 38), with the high for the day only reaching 48 degrees.  So this brings us to what, like 5 record lows set during spring so far?  Crazy. :blink:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on May 04, 2013, 08:56:44 PM
You can blame all these record lows on a cut off low.  This closed upper level low has been drifting over the Great Plains for the past several days.  Since low height aloft equate to lower average temperatures in that area of the atmosphere, it's no wonder that you've had these records.  Now, this same low could bring 1-3" of rain with higher amounts possible along the eastern side of the Blue Ridge to cause some flooding issues.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on May 07, 2013, 09:54:37 PM
Warmest temperature today in the country was not in Texas, not in Florida, nor Arizona, California, or any southern states, but in Yakima, WA with a temp of 92.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on May 14, 2013, 12:11:08 PM
It's amazing what a difference only a couple of weeks makes when you talk about weather (sometimes even less :P ).  The Plains go from unseasonably cold weather, breaking record lows, the first few days of May, to unseasonably hot weather, likely breaking record highs, just two weeks later.  Today's highs will be in the mid-90s across parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota!  I think we're talking about our first major heat wave of the year.

Meanwhile, the eastern United States, which has seen relatively warm temperatures for the past several weeks, has been rather chilly recently.  It's all about the jet stream.  That ridge over the central U.S. is really causing those temperatures to rise while the trough in the east is ushering in some cooler air.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on May 14, 2013, 03:49:08 PM
My area has set new record low temperatures for the past two days, which is rather rare to witness lately.  Here's my record event report that I issued this morning at work.

Quote
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
828 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...MORE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE TODAY AT ROANOKE VIRGINIA IS 35 DEGREES...WHICH
SETS A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS
37 DEGREES FROM 1996.

ALSO...THE LOW TEMPERATURE TODAY AT DANVILLE VIRGINIA IS 36
DEGREES...WHICH SETS A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE
OLD RECORD WAS 38 DEGREES FROM 2007.

FINALLY...THE LOW TEMPERATURE TODAY AT BLACKSBURG VIRGINIA IS 31
DEGREES...WHICH TIES THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE FROM
1996.

PW

Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on May 14, 2013, 07:01:31 PM
KNYC (Central Park) which has records going back to the 1860's, was 2 degrees shy of breaking a record of 40 set in 1878. Meanwhile, the midwest torches, shattering all-time monthly max temps and the earliest record of 100 degrees in some areas.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on May 14, 2013, 07:03:20 PM
This heat in the central/northern Plains today was incredible!! :o

Just to list a few cities:
106°F in Sioux City, IA, which shattered the old record of 97°F.
101°F in Omaha, NE, which broke the old record of 96°F.
98°F in Minneapolis, MN, which broke the old record of 95°F.

And what's even more impressive is that these cities saw winter temperatures Sunday morning, just two days ago!!  Omaha and Lincoln, NE went from setting record lows of 32°F and 31°F, respectively, Sunday morning to breaking record highs this afternoon!

I'm also not sure who saw the greatest difference in temperatures, but let's just say that Sioux City saw a low of 29°F Sunday morning (only 1° shy of the record low) and then surged to 106°F this afternoon - a 77° change in only a couple of days!  Just amazing!
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on May 14, 2013, 07:44:58 PM
Agree with you Andy.

Another thing, just upsetting how we can't get cold air as strong as this. How easy it is for a city to break a monthly max temp nowadays, yet over the past several weeks with the cold air in the midwest, only a few areas broke monthly min temps.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on May 16, 2013, 08:17:50 AM
Texas has just been walloped with tornadoes.  6 people are dead, over 100 are injured, and some really nice houses have been damaged and destroyed in the area SW of Fort Worth.  TWC is covering the aftermath, including live video and interviews with survivors.  The severe threat's not over; it looks like this weekend could get rough.

They just showed some more damage.  Cars have been flipped over, trees are down everywhere, and homes have been picked up and set down a la Wizard of Oz.  This is bad.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on May 22, 2013, 09:12:51 PM
With 850mb temps expected to below freezing, steep lapse rates and decent precip rates, it's going to be a crappy beginning to Memorial Day weekend here. If only 2mT's were cooler we actually could have been talking a snowstorm. Just a cold rain here, temps in the upper 40's, snow in the mountains. Monday looks ok. Endless winter continues... :yawn:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on May 25, 2013, 10:31:22 PM
Had some sleet/graupel mix in today along with some almost completely melted flakes that fell, but still some frozen precip. Other people around the area can confirm this. Absolutely historic, but the latest frozen precip date of anywhere on the island is May 27th, 1961. We are two days shy of the real record. Earliest date of frozen precip is Sep 29th, set in 1893.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on May 25, 2013, 10:34:28 PM
Craig, your winter blues should end by the later part of next week as a pretty significant upper level ridge is coming overhead.  It will finally feel like late May at that point.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on May 27, 2013, 06:13:21 PM
Heat and humidity will arrive here Wednesday and last through Sunday, peaking Thursday with off shore flow. Unlikely to break any records. Record for Thursday is 95°F set in 1987. Maybe set record high mins though with lows possibly above 70°F.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on June 18, 2013, 08:57:30 AM
I've really been enjoying this Spring, although a bit humid, it's been  overall cool in the 80s. We might not even hit 80 today due to the morning rain and low cloud deck.  :o Speaking of rain, man has it been really wet this year. Were within 0.60 of an inch from reaching the yearly total of rainfall we saw for 2012 which was just over 37 inches and were only halfway through the year! That's crazy! If we managed to keep at this pace, we can easily see over 70 inches of rainfall this year, which would be a foot and a half above normal. :yes:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on June 18, 2013, 11:49:42 AM
I've really been enjoying this Spring, although a bit humid, it's been  overall cool in the 80s. We might not even hit 80 today due to the morning rain and low cloud deck.  :o Speaking of rain, man has it been really wet this year. Were within 0.60 of an inch from reaching the yearly total of rainfall we saw for 2012 which was just over 37 inches and were only halfway through the year! That's crazy! If we managed to keep at this pace, we can easily see over 70 inches of rainfall this year, which would be a foot and a half above normal. :yes:

It's the same here. This was an awkward spring here. Started off cold in March. April was alright, a bit cool but very dry, day after day of sun. The dry spell lasted into early May and we've been in a wet pattern ever since, and KNYC only less than an inch away from breaking its all time wettest June.

Other than that, there are huge differences between the GFS and Euro. GFS wants to torch the entire medium range here. Euro wants to keep a trough over the area through the rest of the month. 0z GFS was hot with day after day 90+ temps, 06z backed off a bit and looks like it's trending towards a Euro like solution, with a ridge, then trough, then back to a ridge.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on June 18, 2013, 12:40:56 PM
Spring has indeed been crazy.  In Norman/Oklahoma City, weekly cold blasts from very strong cold fronts would drop us down from the 70s and 80s to the 30s and 40s.  We would pick up at least an inch of rain from these fronts as well.  At the beginning of May, when temperatures were in the 50s, we wondered if "spring" would ever arrive.  Well, it did - when winter-like temperatures finally ceased after cold fronts moved through and our highs stayed near or above normal, severe weather exploded in mid-May, causing two EF5 tornadoes to strike the OKC metro area within a week of each other.  Now, thanks in part to the weekly cold fronts and treacherous flooding rains on May 31, Oklahoma City has just a little under 32 inches of rain for the year so far, which is 15 inches above normal!  This is definitely good news, as the OKC metro is now out of the drought.  But what may be more "incredible" is that parts of the state (in the west) are still in an exceptional drought!  So spring has not treated everyone equally.

So far (in OKC), June is wetter than average, with temperatures right around normal.  Cooler-than-average temperatures have been balanced by warmer-than-average temperatures, so the mean comes out near 0.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on June 19, 2013, 10:32:51 PM
Looks like Nome, AK tied its all-time highest temp ever today. Crazy heat up there. Tying an all-time heat record in June. Amazing turn around from a few months ago when Alaska was in a deep freeze.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PAOM/2013/6/19/DailyHistory.html (http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PAOM/2013/6/19/DailyHistory.html)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on June 29, 2013, 03:20:32 PM
Here's all you need to know about what's driving the weather for the last few months:  The latest Drought Monitor attached in this post clearly shows serious drought in large areas west of the Mississippi River, which has been very hot and dry.  There's no relief coming in the near future due to poor soil moisture and extreme warmth aloft.  Fires are running out of control in New Mexico and Colorado.  Meanwhile, hardly anywhere east of the Mississippi River is in drought, which has been considerably wet and somewhat cool.  Abundant soil moisture and evaporation has certainly helped, and quite a few areas in the East have been dodging flooding as more unsettled weather continues.

Things will need to drastically change to stop this overall pattern, because you're watching a serious positive feedback loop on both sides as I explained above.  Now, you see why normal is never something you obtain in weather patterns.  It's really more like a pendulum swinging between the extremes.  If you swing just a little too dry, you will fall further into drought.  If you swing a little too wet, you will deal with more flooding.  Something major has to come to break it up and reverse the pattern.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 03, 2013, 07:36:44 AM
So The Adventures of Noah's Ark begins... 2-4+ inches forecasted from the NWS; TWC is forecasting 3-5 inches. Still too early to say, but if things meet or exceed expectations, I wouldn't be surprised to see this rival The Great Flood of 2009.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FFC&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FFC&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)

Our NWS office is also mentioning the chance for tornadoes. :blink: In addition to that, they preemptively issued Flood Warnings yesterday for the locations that would easily flood during this event.

There is a pro to all of this, I get to enjoy 70s today and through the holidays! :D
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on July 03, 2013, 09:04:22 AM
Weather has been kinda Meh here. I guess it's because I'm so used to the extreme weather we've been experiencing the past few years. 2010 had records snow in the winter, record heat in the summer, 2011 was just like 2010, but with Hurricane Irene, 2012 was by far the best (since I like extreme weather), though we had a remarkably warm winter, the summer was packed with tons of severe weather, microbursts, tornadoes, then Hurricane Sandy which is a storm I'll likely never experience again. Now it's 2013, the only real extreme event was the blizzard back in February, other than that it has been cold. In recent weeks it has gotten warmer and more humid. Forecast for the next seven days is perfect. Warm and humid, not one low below 70.

Today A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Independence Day Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 8 to 15 mph.
Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind 6 to 15 mph.
Friday Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph.
Friday Night Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Saturday Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 88.
Saturday Night Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Sunday Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Sunday Night Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Monday Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 92.
Monday Night Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 73.
Tuesday Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 92.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on July 03, 2013, 12:52:03 PM
With an upper-level high in the West causing a tremendous heat wave and an upper-level low in the East causing cool temperatures and relentless rain, we have been stuck right in the "middle" with northerly flow, resulting in well-below average temperatures.  Whereas daytime highs have only been a few degrees below average, morning lows have been close to records.

Yesterday (July 2), DFW was only one degree shy from tying a record low of 65 degrees, set in 1924 and 1924.
Today (July 3), DFW was two degrees shy from tying the record low of 63 degrees, set in 1924.

Waco, TX (about an hour south of here) saw a different story.  As they are away from the city and are not subject to urban heating, they set not only a record low of 58 degrees this morning, breaking the old record of 64 degrees in 1924, but also an all-time record low for July, which was formerly 60 degrees.

I find it incredible how many record lows parts of the Southern Plains have experienced so far this year.  And to think that only two years ago we were dealing with the hottest summer on record!
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 03, 2013, 01:04:13 PM
With an upper-level high in the West causing a tremendous heat wave and an upper-level low in the East causing cool temperatures and relentless rain, we have been stuck right in the "middle" with northerly flow, resulting in well-below average temperatures.  Whereas daytime highs have only been a few degrees below average, morning lows have been close to records.

Yesterday (July 2), DFW was only one degree shy from tying a record low of 65 degrees, set in 1924 and 1924.
Today (July 3), DFW was two degrees shy from tying the record low of 63 degrees, set in 1924.

Waco, TX (about an hour south of here) saw a different story.  As they are away from the city and are not subject to urban heating, they set not only a record low of 58 degrees this morning, breaking the old record of 64 degrees in 1924, but also an all-time record low for July, which was formerly 60 degrees.

I find it incredible how many record lows parts of the Southern Plains have experienced so far this year.  And to think that only two years ago we were dealing with the hottest summer on record!

The Northern Plains has warmed up quite a bit and gotten significantly drier thanks to this rather...stagnant...upper level pattern. Thankfully, we got enough rainfall beforehand that drought conditions have not yet developed across our area. We've been in the 80s with lows in the 60s - still very nice weather. We've yet to have a 90 degree day here.

Models are all showing that the ridge will begin to break down in a few days, allowing for zonal flow to take over for the next couple of days. Periodic bouts of showers and thunderstorms will be possible during this time, with the potential for a few isolated strong storms early next week across the North Central States.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on July 03, 2013, 06:23:17 PM
I think places in Canada along the south western side of the Hudson Bay are having some of their hottest temps ever. Some places are in the mid 90's right now. Ft. Severn had a low of 38F this morning and is currently at 93. The Hudson Bay itself has be in the 30's with some patches of ice on it, yet just inland it's in the 90's. Crazy.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYER/2013/7/3/DailyHistory.html (http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYER/2013/7/3/DailyHistory.html)
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on July 03, 2013, 07:11:55 PM
It's only 90 °F for me (in Texas) right now.  Of course, 90° shouldn't be preceded by "only," but it's technically below normal here.  Something's wrong when it's cooler in Texas than it is in parts of Canada.  We haven't been anywhere near the 30°'s for lows, though, so you still have us beat.  They say it's the "dog days of summer" now, though, so I don't think the heat's over.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 03, 2013, 11:40:31 PM
I have yet to experience 90°F this year.  The warmest it has been in my area is 84°F.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on July 11, 2013, 11:25:00 AM
We have been in an unrelenting warm & humid pattern since 6/24, but I love these kinds of patterns, especially if they last long. Latest guidance keeps ridging in place and we look to go yet another 6-10 days of temps near 90°F and dew points 70°F+. The Bermuda High keeps pumping moisture up from the tropics, and it won't stop. This also bad news if a hurricane was to form because it would come this way. We have yet to drop below 70°F so far this month, we might do it Saturday morning with a min of about 69°F. Avg. Dew point is 71°F so far this month and avg. temp is 80°F. It's not rare to get high dews for several days, but this has been lasting weeks, and looks to continue. Very Florida like pattern. Also despite high humidity, rain has been scarce and every storm dies before reaching us.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 11, 2013, 11:49:47 AM
The Seattle-Type pattern continues down here. I'm under yet another Flash Flood Watch for today. The Flood Watch we were under last week was extended not once, or twice, not even three times, but four times it was extended. First issued on Wednesday last week then extended all the way to this past Monday.

I don't see much of any change on the horizon, there's virtually a chance of rain (and flooding) every day for about the next 10 days. The pro in all of this, it hasn't hit 90 or higher in a couple of weeks so I'm VERY happy about that. :D Weirdly enough the mornings as of late have been cool and comfortable even though DPs have been relatively high.

Sidenote: For anyone who was following that Derecho from yesterday, does anyone know if the storms that came through AL/GA early this morning from that same Derecho? I saw it across TN last night before I went to bed, but I don't know where the line of storms originated from. :dunno:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on July 11, 2013, 12:43:40 PM
OK, so it looks like yesterday we had our third derecho of the year.  I thought I remember reading in an article recently where a derecho only happens once a year to once every-other-year.  And here, we've already had three!  I mean, last year when there was the derecho in the Ohio Valley/Northeast, it seemed to be big news.  Now, it almost seems like the "norm" - well, sort of.  Perhaps I misread the article, or perhaps it was blatantly wrong but this is weird.

For this matter, I guess I could also wonder how two EF5 tornadoes hit the Oklahoma City metro area within two-weeks time. :whistling:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on July 14, 2013, 01:47:59 PM
It looks like the weather "gods" have been listening, as an upper-level low has retrograded from the Ohio Valley towards the southwest, bringing drought-stricken areas some much-needed rainfall.  Cooler temperatures are also in store.  Right now, it is 30 degrees cooler than yesterday's high!
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on July 14, 2013, 03:45:40 PM
This has been a strange year for that kind of weather.  I've heard the term "retrograde" on TWC more times this year than I ever remember hearing it before.  A while back, it seems like I heard it twice in one segment referring to two different systems.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on July 14, 2013, 07:41:45 PM
Mid 90's everyday this week with dew points in the 70's. Gotta love it.  :happy:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on July 14, 2013, 08:58:33 PM
Ugh, that sounds like imitation-Texas-weather or something.  :wacko:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 15, 2013, 01:51:30 PM
I wonder if we can go this entire month of July w/o reaching 90 degrees.  :thinking: It'll be close tomorrow and Wednesday. Atlanta has only had 4 90+ degree days so far this Summer and all 4 occurred in the month of June alone! There were 0 in May and 0 so far for July which is the hottest month (on average) here.The warmest temperature observed at the airport was 92°F back in June and that was only for a few minutes as thunderstorms moved in shortly after.

Yesterday, we were under a Flash Flood Watch (no surprise there) and it poured down pretty heavily with strong gusty winds. (I would estimate close to T.S. force gusts) Last week one of our local news stations did a report from our NWS office about the persistent flooding this Spring/Summer and the growing concerns about land/mudslides. They said worse case scenario is that this wet and stormy pattern could last through Winter 2014. That would be an interesting change of pace considering we have seen more long lived droughts than floods over the past 15 years.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on July 18, 2013, 10:24:21 AM
4km NAM for today  :thrilled:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on August 12, 2013, 10:21:21 AM
Here's something you don't here often in mid August: Cold Air Damming. That's exactly what's setting up to happen later this week into the weekend. We may struggle to reach 70 during this CAD event. :o

Oh and of course we can't forget there's going to be more flooding along with possibly a tropical system to add insult to injury.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on August 12, 2013, 12:27:51 PM
I'll trade my weather for yours.  :yes:  We've been getting 100° heat and not much rain (although it did rain yesterday).  In fact, we haven't even reached 70° for a low since last month.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on August 12, 2013, 08:34:39 PM
I'll trade my weather for yours.  :yes:  We've been getting 100° heat and not much rain (although it did rain yesterday).  In fact, we haven't even reached 70° for a low since last month.

I don't mind trading you the rain, but I'm gonna be selfish and hold onto the low 70s this week into the weekend. Who knows when the next opportunity will come up to see 70s in mid August. :lol:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on August 12, 2013, 10:23:11 PM
Pretty boring here. Cool and below average. Also pretty cloudy. While last month it was so easy to keep the low temp above 70, this month we radiate so much with the lower dews, NW wind and troughiness. Some models are hinting the WAR (Bermuda High) will build back in towards the end of the month and bring warmer and more humid conditions. Also thanks to Long Island's mirco climate, south shore is in a drought, north shore is extremely wet. Meh
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on August 18, 2013, 11:05:52 AM
What a difference this August has been. Average August temperature is down 6.4°F from July's average and the average dew point is down 9°F from July's average dew point. Warmest temp this August so far was only 84°F. Boo hoo.
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on September 05, 2013, 11:30:14 PM
We've been on a dry streak this week, which looks to continue for several days. The last time we saw rain was Sunday/Monday (although I only saw rain Sunday, it was rain recorded on Monday at the airport)

We are 17.03 inches above average for the year and have reached our yearly rainfall average w/ 3 months of 2013 remaining. :yes:
Title: Re: Spring/Summer Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on September 08, 2013, 05:28:48 PM
Holy Shanagins. The NAM for two runs now shows 20C+ 850's and temps in the mid 90's with dew points in the mid 70's.

(http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/f72.gif)