TWC Today/TWC Classics Forums

Weather Discussion => Forecasting => Topic started by: Trevor on April 06, 2013, 01:13:23 PM

Title: Severe Weather Event - April 7-11, 2013
Post by: Trevor on April 06, 2013, 01:13:23 PM
Tuesday definitely looks like the "big day". It looks like I'll be getting in on the action as well come Wednesday evening.

Here's my sounding for Wednesday evening. Notice the lack of a huge cap, and the shearing of the winds. I'm thinking Moderate Risk for sure, possibly High Risk.

(http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013040612_F108_35.0000N_90.0000W.png)
Title: Re: Severe Weather Event - April 7-11, 2013
Post by: phw115wvwx on April 06, 2013, 02:26:37 PM
For this topic, I think we can stick with just dealing with the models and analysis of the upcoming threat.  Once it materializes, another topic in the Severe Weather board can be made for the actual day with the warnings, reports, and final analysis pieces if desired.

Trevor, I attached the newest GFS run below to match your time of the sounding.  Note the upper-level trough turning to more of a neutral tilt (oriented north-south) that will slowly turn toward a negative tilt (oriented from northwest to southeast).  Negative tilt upper-level troughs are never good, and especially for spring!
Title: Re: Severe Weather Event - April 7-11, 2013
Post by: toxictwister00 on April 12, 2013, 08:08:05 PM
Well this event turned out to not be that bad in our neck of the woods. We got a lot of heavy rain, thunder, and lightning, but it wasn't what I would call severe in any nature. :no:

The Good Side: The rain washed away some of the pollen.
The Bad Side: The pollen count was still well over 7,800 today.
  :blink: