TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Forecasting => Topic started by: phw115wvwx on July 28, 2013, 12:09:29 AM
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Welcome to Round 4 of the TWCT/TWCC Forecasting Contest! Zach, the winner of Round 3, has chosen Tampa, FL as the next city. The ASOS covered in the NWS climate summary for this location is at the Tampa International Airport (KTPA). Here is a link to the NWS forecast for this airport to help you:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=27.96334411176147&lon=-82.54000090062618 (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=27.96334411176147&lon=-82.54000090062618)
The two-week forecasting period will begin on Monday, July 29 and will end on Friday, August 9. You must submit your first forecast tonight to beat the midnight EDT deadline. See the rules at the following link if you need any assistance before participating in this round:
https://twctodayforums.com/forums/forecasting/twcttwcc-forecasting-contest-rules-4808/ (https://twctodayforums.com/forums/forecasting/twcttwcc-forecasting-contest-rules-4808/)
Good luck, everyone! B)
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This one is certainly going to be interesting :D
Tampa, FL
Monday, July 29, 2013
High: 90°F
Low: 77°F
POP: 40%
Amount: 0.07"
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Tampa, FL - Monday, July 29, 2013
High: 90°F
Low: 76°F
Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Amount: 0.24"
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Isn't Tampa where it rains nearly every day? :D
Tampa, FL
Monday, July 29, 2013
High Temperature: 90 °F
Low Temperature: 75 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 50%
Precipitation Amount: 0.32"
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The models keep saying Dorian may flirt with Florida's west coast in the coming days. Maybe the contest will catch the tail end of that? Extreme QPF forecasts! :biggrin: :rofl2:
Tampa, FL
Monday, July 29, 2013
High: 90
Low: 77
POP: 60%
Precipitation: 0.15"
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All the Day 1 forecasts have been entered, so you may now submit your Day 2 forecast for Tuesday, July 30.
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Tampa, FL
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
High: 90°F
Low: 77°F
POP: 40%
Amount: 0.06"
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Tampa, FL
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
High Temperature: 91 °F
Low Temperature: 77 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 70%
Precipitation Amount: 0.27"
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Tampa, FL - Tuesday, July 30, 2013
High: 92°F
Low: 77°F
Chance of Precipitation: 70%
Amount: 0.17"
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The Day 2 forecasts have been entered, so you may now submit your Day 3 forecast for Wednesday, July 31. Mac will appear as the leader to start this round, but he has once again gone absent by missing the deadline tonight and will be penalized. Here are the Day 1 results:
Tampa, FL (KTPA) Day 1 Verification
High: 92°F
Low: 75°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 0.09"
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Tampa, FL
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
High Temperature: 91 °F
Low Temperature: 76 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.37"
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Tampa, FL
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
High: 91°F
Low: 77°F
POP: 100%
Amount: 0.13"
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Tampa, FL - Wednesday, July 31, 2013
High: 92°F
Low: 76°F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Amount: 0.25"
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Vacation starts this week so I will be out for a good chunk. Bowing out of this one. :wave:
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Sorry for the long delay, but a very unfortunate thing happened last night to me. My laptop completely crashed to where Windows wouldn't load at all, and I lost everything. :cry: I had to install Windows 7 from scratch, and it has taken me 12 straight hours to even get close to having most of the basics finished. I will have to redo my scoring spreadsheet as my backup copy is from a couple months ago, so please keep proceeding in this round as normal, but don't expect any score updates from me until hopefully the end of this week.
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:hmm: Yikes, that's not good! I hate computer crashes. I hope you're able to get everything set up again.
Tampa, FL
Thursday, August 1, 2013
High Temperature: 89 °F
Low Temperature: 76 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Precipitation Amount: 0.29"
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Tampa, FL
Thursday, August 1, 2013
High: 90°F
Low: 77°F
POP: 100
Amount: 0.18"
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My laptop never crashed to the point where I lost everything, but it came close several times. I hope you're able to get everything back to normal.
Tampa, FL - Thursday, August 1, 2013
High: 89°F
Low: 75°F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Amount: 0.31"
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Tampa, FL
Friday, August 2, 2013
High: 91°F
Low: 76°F
POP: 100%
Amount: 0.11"
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Tampa, FL
Friday, August 2, 2013
High Temperature: 90 °F
Low Temperature: 77 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.16"
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Tampa, FL - Friday, August 2, 2013
High: 92°F
Low: 76°F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Amount: 0.17"
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Important! Please read!
For those of you participating in the contest, week 2 of forecasting for Tampa, FL will be delayed by one week until Monday, August 12. Patrick is unable to be on the forums because his computer is under repairs, and I am on vacation this week and do not have access to the spreadsheet as I only brought my phone.
Forecasting will resume for Monday, August 12. I apologize for inconveniencing everyone participating in the contest. Thank you for your understanding.
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Andy, please take over the forecasting contest for the rest of this round as I won't be available to do it due to more computer problems. I have given you the spreadsheet for this round and entered the numbers through the first week. I can briefly reveal the standings through Day 5 now even though it will be a crude listing here since all my settings have been wiped out from the hard drive replacement:
1. Matthew - 28.0
2. Metarvo - 29.0
3. Zach - 34.5
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Gonna have to drop out of this one for personal reasons. Sorry
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Metarvo and Matthew:
This is a reminder that the contest has resumed, and your forecasts for Tampa, FL for Monday, August 12 are due by midnight EDT tonight. I hope both of you are still able to participate in this round.
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Tampa, FL
Monday, August 12, 2013
High Temperature: 95 °F
Low Temperature: 77 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Tampa, FL - Monday, August 12, 2013
High: 95°F
Low: 78°F
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Amount: 0.01"
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Tampa, FL
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
High Temperature: 94 °F
Low Temperature: 78 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Tampa, FL - Tuesday, August 13, 2013
High: 94°F
Low: 80°F
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Amount: 0.01"
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Here is the verification and results from Day 6. You both did a very good job, nailing the high temperature. You may now enter your Day 8 forecasts for Wednesday, August 14, 2013 before midnight EDT tonight.
Tampa, FL (KTPA) Day 6 Verification
High: 95°F
Low: 80°F
POP: 0%
Precipitation: 0.00"
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Tampa, FL
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
High Temperature: 89 °F
Low Temperature: 79 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Precipitation Amount: 0.07"
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Tampa, FL - Wednesday, August 14, 2013
High: 90°F
Low: 79°F
Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Amount: 0.05"
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Results from Day 7. Still a very close round!
Tampa, FL (KTPA) Day 7 Verification
High: 92°F
Low: 79°F
POP: 0%
Precipitation: 0.00"
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Tampa, FL
Thursday, August 15, 2013
High Temperature: 89 °F
Low Temperature: 77 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 50%
Precipitation Amount: 0.22"
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Tampa, FL - Thursday, August 15, 2013
High: 89°F
Low: 78°F
Chance of Precipitation: 70%
Amount: 0.28"
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Tampa, FL
Friday, August 16, 2013
High Temperature: 86 °F
Low Temperature: 76 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.40"
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Tampa, FL - Friday, August 16, 2013
High: 87°F
Low: 77°F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Amount: 0.47"
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Hi guys. Sorry for the long delay in getting the results to you. Yesterday was move-in day for me back at OU, which was pretty hectic. I appreciate you both being so diligent in remembering your forecasts for today.
This post will have BOTH the Day 8 and Day 9 verifications. I will post the Day 10 verification tomorrow and announce a winner. Thanks for participating in this round!
Tampa, FL (KTPA) Day 8 (August 14) Verification
High: 92°F
Low: 75°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 2.11" *
*This value broke a precipitation record for the day. The old record was 2.06" in 1917.
Tampa, FL (KTPA) Day 9 (August 15) Verification
High: 90°F
Low: 78°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 0.09"
As you can see, Wednesday's significant precipitation amount proved to be a big shocker when comparing the actual results with your forecasts. Just shows how difficult forecasting can be!
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Congratulations Matthew! :clap:
You are the winner of Round 4 of the TWCT/TWCC Forecasting contest! You may choose the city for Round 5, provided it is not in the Eastern Time Zone and has a functioning ASOS station with an official NWS daily climate summary for the station, per the rules. Please PM Patrick or me when you have chosen your city.
As Patrick is on vacation this week and I am starting my first week of classes, the next round will probably start the week of August 26. We will coordinate later and decide. Thank you to everyone who participated in this round!
Tampa, FL (KTPA) Day 10 Verification
High: 89°F
Low: 78°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 0.26"
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Congratulations on winning the round, Matthew! Andy told me your city choice for Round 5, so I will start it up next Sunday.
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I may have to skip Round 5, since my schedule for that week precludes me from playing every day. Sorry. :itsok: I should be available for Round 6, though.
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I've been purposely waiting for forum activity to resume so I know that I can start Round 5 with at least some interest and participation. The last weeks have really discouraged me from what I've seen. I still have Matthew's choice ready if enough activity resumes so I can post it.
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I'm back, and I would be available to play if there were enough other people who were also able to do so.
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I'm in on the next round If that is happening.