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Weather Discussion => Forecasting => Topic started by: phw115wvwx on July 07, 2013, 01:12:44 AM

Title: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 07, 2013, 01:12:44 AM
Welcome to Round 3 of the TWCT/TWCC Forecasting Contest!  Tavores, the winner of Round 2, has chosen Peoria, IL as the next city.  The ASOS covered in the NWS climate summary for this location is at the General Downing - Peoria International Airport (KPIA).  Here is a link to the NWS forecast for this airport to help you:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.66242766697801&lon=-89.69113826751709 (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.66242766697801&lon=-89.69113826751709)

The two-week forecast period will begin on Monday, July 8 and end on Friday, July 19.  You must submit your first forecast tonight to beat the midnight EDT deadline.  See the rules at the following link if you need any assistance before participating in this round:

http://twctodayforums.com/forums/forecasting/twcttwcc-forecasting-contest-rules-4808/ (http://twctodayforums.com/forums/forecasting/twcttwcc-forecasting-contest-rules-4808/)

Good luck, everyone! :)
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCmatthew on July 07, 2013, 02:19:54 PM
Great to have another contest! I should be able to participate in every forecasting day this round.

Peoria, IL - Monday, July 8, 2013

High: 89
Low: 72
Chance of Precipitation: 70%
Amount: 0.15"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 07, 2013, 04:02:36 PM
This is a lot harder than it looks on TV, but then I'm not a meteorologist so I guess I'm out of my element a little.  B)

Peoria, IL
Monday, July 8, 2013

High Temperature: 89 F
Low Temperature: 73 F
Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Precipitation Amount: 0.12"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 07, 2013, 06:08:16 PM
Peoria, IL
Monday, July 8, 2013

High: 87F
Low: 71F
POP: 60%
Amount: 0.14"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 07, 2013, 08:50:13 PM
Peoria, IL - July 8th, 2013

High: 89
Low: 73
POP: 80%
Amount: 0.21"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCCraig on July 07, 2013, 11:02:48 PM
KPIA Forecast
Monday, July 8th, 2013


High Temperature: 89F
Low Temperature: 72F
Chance of Precip: 50%
Amount of Precip: 0.11"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 07, 2013, 11:19:11 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Monday, July 8, 2013

Forecast High: 88F
Forecast Low: 72F
Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Precipitation Amount: 0.18"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mike M on July 07, 2013, 11:29:19 PM
Monday, July 8, 2013
High: 89F
Low: 72
POP: 50%
Precip: 0.10"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 08, 2013, 12:04:16 AM
All seven forecasts have been entered for Day 1, and you can post your Day 2 forecasts for Tuesday, July 9 now.  It's nice to see some new participants here!  If there's enough interest going forward with this contest, I may start forecasting as well in the next round. B)
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mike M on July 08, 2013, 12:10:04 AM
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
High: 88F
Low: 74F
POP: 100%
Precip: 0.85"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCmatthew on July 08, 2013, 03:14:06 PM
Peoria, IL - Tuesday, July 9, 2013

High: 90
Low: 73
Chance of Precipitation: 90%
Amount: 0.45"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 08, 2013, 05:26:41 PM
Peoria, IL
Tuesday, July 9, 2013

High Temperature: 92 F
Low Temperature: 75 F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.41"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 08, 2013, 06:31:54 PM
Peoria, IL
Tuesday, July 9, 2013

High: 89F
Low: 72F
POP: 80%
Amount: 0.47"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCCraig on July 08, 2013, 11:17:51 PM
KPIA Forecast
Tuesday, July 9th, 2013


High Temperature: 90F
Low Temperature: 73F
Chance of Precip: 90%
Amount of Precip: 0.53"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 08, 2013, 11:58:10 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Forecast High: 89F
Forecast Low: 72F
Chance of Precipitation: 60%
Precipitation Amount: 0.44"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 09, 2013, 01:23:55 AM
All Day 2 forecasts have been entered, so you may now enter your Day 3 forecasts for Wednesday, July 10.  Below are the results from Day 1, but the standings are not staying this way for long as Mac missed the deadline tonight and will be assessed a penalty during Day 2:

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 1 Verification

High:  86F
Low:  73F
POP:  100%
Precipitation:  0.37"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 09, 2013, 12:26:42 PM
Peoria, IL
Wednesday, July 10, 2013

High: 87F
Low: 65F
POP: 40%
Amount: 0.23"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 09, 2013, 06:52:42 PM
Peoria, IL
Wednesday, July 10, 2013

High Temperature: 88 F
Low Temperature: 72 F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.25"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mike M on July 09, 2013, 07:07:52 PM
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
High: 85
Low: 69
POP: 50%
Precip: 0.15"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 09, 2013, 10:17:15 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Forecast High: 85F
Forecast Low: 67F
Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Precipitation Amount: 0.42"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 09, 2013, 11:02:53 PM
Wednesday, July 10th
High: 85
Low: 65
POP: 0%
Precip: 0.00
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 10, 2013, 02:08:31 AM
All Day 3 forecasts have been entered, so you may now enter your Day 4 forecasts for Thursday, July 11.  Below are the results from Day 2, but the overall standings will be shuffled again as Craig and Matthew missed the deadline tonight and will be assessed a penalty during Day 3:

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 2 Verification

High:  90F
Low:  77F
POP:  100%
Precipitation:  0.02"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 10, 2013, 07:11:43 AM
Peoria, IL
Thursday, July 11, 2013

High: 83F
Low: 60F
POP: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mike M on July 10, 2013, 11:09:14 AM
Thursday, July 11, 2013
High: 82
Low: 62
POP: 0%
Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCmatthew on July 10, 2013, 02:28:32 PM
Peoria, IL - Thursday, July 11, 2013

High: 83
Low: 61
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 10, 2013, 05:49:32 PM
Peoria, IL
Thursday, July 11, 2013

High Temperature: 83 F
Low Temperature: 63 F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mr. Rainman on July 10, 2013, 09:34:02 PM
Peoria IL - Thursday, July 11th

High: 84
Low: 60
POP: 0%
Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 10, 2013, 09:50:14 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Thursday, July 11, 2013

Forecast High: 82F
Forecast Low: 60F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"

Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCCraig on July 10, 2013, 11:21:02 PM
KPIA Forecast
Thursday, July 11th, 2013


High Temperature: 82F
Low Temperature: 59F
Chance of Precip: 0%
Amount of Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 11, 2013, 02:45:34 AM
All Day 4 forecasts have been entered, so you may now enter your Day 5 forecasts for Friday, July 12.  Zach is the new leader in the standings.  Here are the Day 3 results:

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 3 Verification

High:  88F
Low:  68F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"

Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 11, 2013, 07:29:53 AM
Peoria, IL
Friday, July 12, 2013

High: 83F
Low: 60F
POP: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCmatthew on July 11, 2013, 09:25:25 AM
Peoria, IL - Friday, July 12, 2013

High: 82
Low: 59
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mike M on July 11, 2013, 11:51:51 AM
Friday, July 12, 2013

High: 82F
Low: 60F
POP: 0%
Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 11, 2013, 03:07:19 PM
Peoria, IL
Friday, July 12, 2013

High Temperature: 84 F
Low Temperature: 59 F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 11, 2013, 10:12:10 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Friday, July 12, 2013

Forecast High: 84F
Forecast Low: 58F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCCraig on July 11, 2013, 10:46:15 PM
KPIA Forecast
Friday, July 12th, 2013


High Temperature: 84F
Low Temperature: 59F
Chance of Precip: 0%
Amount of Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 12, 2013, 02:56:14 AM
All Day 5 forecasts have been entered.  Mike and Metarvo came so close to the rare "zero-point day" for a perfect forecast.  Good job to you two!  Zach still holds first place on the leaderboard, but the gap has narrowed as the top four are within eight points of each other.  A lot can still happen in this round.

Mac missed the deadline again for tonight and has been assigned another penalty for Day 5.  You can all rest until Sunday evening when your Day 6 forecast for Monday, July 15 is due at midnight.  Here are the Day 4 results:

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 4 Verification

High:  82F
Low:  63F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 13, 2013, 01:34:25 AM
We are now halfway through this round.  The top four are separated by less than six points, so the second week will definitely decide it.  The Day 5 results are shown below, and you will notice that I spruced up the spreadsheet to make it easier to read.  Thoughts?

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 5 Verification

High:  85F
Low:  58F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 14, 2013, 02:33:33 PM
Here's a friendly reminder that your Day 6 forecast for Monday, July 15 is due at midnight EDT tonight.
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCmatthew on July 14, 2013, 02:43:26 PM
Peoria, IL - Monday, July 15, 2013

High: 88
Low: 73
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Amount: 0.05"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 14, 2013, 03:36:05 PM
Peoria, IL
Monday, July 15, 2013

High: 87F
Low: 71F
POP: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 14, 2013, 03:41:37 PM
Peoria, IL
Monday, July 15, 2013

High Temperature: 88 F
Low Temperature: 72 F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 14, 2013, 09:16:25 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Monday, July 15, 2013

Forecast High: 86F
Forecast Low: 72F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 15, 2013, 12:03:08 AM
All Day 6 forecasts have been entered, and you may now submit your Day 7 forecasts for Tuesday, July 16.  It seems that the Sunday night deadline to start the second week trips up many people even though it is clearly in the rules.  Craig, Mac, and Mike all missed it and have been assigned a penalty for Day 6.
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mike M on July 15, 2013, 11:21:28 AM
All Day 6 forecasts have been entered, and you may now submit your Day 7 forecasts for Tuesday, July 16.  It seems that the Sunday night deadline to start the second week trips up many people even though it is clearly in the rules.  Craig, Mac, and Mike all missed it and have been assigned a penalty for Day 6.
Sorry I had been busy this weekend and didn't get a chance to enter mine in......

Tuesday 7/16

High: 89
Low: 73
POP: 0
Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 15, 2013, 05:30:38 PM
Peoria, IL
Tuesday, July 16, 2013

High Temperature: 90 F
Low Temperature: 72 F
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Precipitation Amount: 0.09"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 15, 2013, 06:00:02 PM
Peoria, IL
Tuesday, July 16, 2013

High: 89F
Low: 71F
POP: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCmatthew on July 15, 2013, 06:32:47 PM
Peoria, IL - Tuesday, July 15, 2013

High: 91
Low: 73
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCCraig on July 15, 2013, 10:52:53 PM
KPIA Forecast
Tuesday, July 16th, 2013


High Temperature: 90F
Low Temperature: 73F
Chance of Preicp: 0%
Amount of Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 15, 2013, 11:17:29 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Forecast High: 89F
Forecast Low: 73F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 16, 2013, 12:30:17 AM
All Day 7 forecasts have been entered, and you may now submit your Day 8 forecasts for Wednesday, July 17.  Mac missed the deadline again for tonight and has been assigned another penalty for Day 7.  Meanwhile, the top of the standings continues to become more competitive as just less than four points separates first from third, which is making every day count even if the weather is tranquil.  Here are the Day 6 results:

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 6 Verification

High:  91F
Low:  73F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"

Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 16, 2013, 12:54:32 PM
Peoria, IL
Wednesday, July 17, 2013

High: 91F
Low: 73F
POP: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 16, 2013, 07:45:10 PM
Peoria, IL
Wednesday, July 17, 2013

High Temperature: 92 F
Low Temperature: 74 F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mike M on July 16, 2013, 09:04:18 PM
Wednesday, July 17, 2013

High: 91F
Low: 74F
POP: 0
Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCCraig on July 16, 2013, 09:55:26 PM
KPIA Forecast
Wednesday, July 17th, 2013


High Temperature: 91F
Low Temperature: 74F
Chance of Precip: 0%
Amount of Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 16, 2013, 10:23:32 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Forecast High: 92F
Forecast Low: 73F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"

Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 17, 2013, 12:54:43 AM
All Day 8 forecasts have been entered, and you may now submit your Day 9 forecasts for Thursday, July 18.  Mac and Matthew missed the deadline for tonight and have been assigned a penalty for Day 8.  We have a new leader atop the standings as Tavores has passed Zach.  Here are the Day 7 results:

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 7 Verification

High:  93F
Low:  73F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"

Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 17, 2013, 12:32:30 PM
Aww darn! :P Congrats in getting ahead of me Tavores!

Peoria, IL
Thursday, July 18, 2013

High: 94F
Low: 75F
POP: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mike M on July 17, 2013, 01:00:20 PM
Thursday, July 18, 2013

High: 93F
Low: 73FF
POP: 0
Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCmatthew on July 17, 2013, 03:54:40 PM
Peoria, IL - Thursday, July 18, 2013

High: 93F
Low: 75F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 17, 2013, 06:09:12 PM
Peoria, IL
Thursday, July 18, 2013

High Temperature: 92 F
Low Temperature: 75 F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 17, 2013, 10:00:46 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Thursday, July 18, 2013

Forecast High: 91F
Forecast Low: 72F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCCraig on July 17, 2013, 10:31:03 PM
KPIA Forecast
Thursday, July 18th, 2013


High Temperature: 91F
Low Temperature: 73F
Chance of Precip: 0%
Amount of Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 18, 2013, 12:18:23 AM
All Day 9 forecasts have been entered, and you may now submit your Day 10 forecasts for Friday, July 19.  Mac missed the deadline again for tonight and has been assigned a penalty for Day 9.  Tavores holds a slim lead, but anyone in the top three could win this round depending on these last two days.  Here are the Day 8 results:

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 8 Verification

High:  95F
Low:  74F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Metarvo on July 18, 2013, 08:34:30 AM
Peoria, IL
Friday, July 19, 2013

High Temperature: 96 F
Low Temperature: 75 F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCmatthew on July 18, 2013, 05:21:26 PM
Peoria, IL - Friday, July 19, 2013

High: 95
Low: 74
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Mike M on July 18, 2013, 05:52:27 PM
Friday, July 19, 2013

High: 96F
Low: 75F
POP: 30%
Precip: 0.10"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: Zach on July 18, 2013, 06:19:18 PM
Peoria, IL
Friday, July 19, 2013

High: 96F
Low: 74F
POP: 0%
Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: toxictwister00 on July 18, 2013, 08:01:47 PM
Peoria, IL (KPIA)
Friday, July 19, 2013

Forecast High: 97F
Forecast Low: 74F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: TWCCraig on July 18, 2013, 11:24:02 PM
KPIA Forecast
Friday, July 19th, 2013


High Temperature: 95F
Low Temperature: 74F
Chance of Precip: 0%
Amount of Precip: 0.00"
Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 19, 2013, 12:13:58 AM
The last forecasts for this round have been entered.  Mac missed the deadline again for tonight and has been assigned a penalty for Day 10.  Day 9 proved to be a huge turning point in this round as Zach beat everyone that day to reclaim the lead, and Metarvo jumped into second place ahead of Tavores.  Only the last day of verification remains before a winner is crowned for Round 3.  Here are the Day 9 results:

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 9 Verification

High:  96F
Low:  75F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"

Title: Re: Round 3: Peoria, IL
Post by: phw115wvwx on July 20, 2013, 03:00:27 AM
It is finally over.  After ten days of forecasting, this round came down to just a mere 1.6 points between first and second in the final standings, and only 0.8 points was the difference between second and third.  The Day 10 results and the final overall standings are attached to this post:

Peoria, IL (KPIA) Day 10 Verification

High:  97F
Low:  75F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"


Congratulations, Zach!  You are the winner of Round 3 for this contest, which means that you will pick the next city for Round 4. B)  You may simply PM or IM me with your choice.  I want to wait at least a week before the next round as I need a break.  I had to double-check every forecast entry and verification result due to this close finish, and I did it all while managing a ton of work stress from severe weather and flooding in my area that cost me a lot of sleep.  Life as a meteorologist can be really hectic, and I hope you all see just how much I have to go through in addition to making good forecasts.