TWC Today Forums
Weather Discussion => Forecasting => Topic started by: phw115wvwx on June 09, 2013, 01:24:26 PM
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Welcome to Round 2 of the TWCT/TWCC Forecasting Contest! Craig, the winner of Round 1, has chosen Hartford, CT as the next city. The NWS climate summary for that city covers an ASOS located at a distant suburb to the north called Windsor Locks, so you will be forecasting for the Bradley International Airport (KBDL). Here is a link to the NWS forecast for this airport to help you:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.934801973449126&lon=-72.6895809173584 (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.934801973449126&lon=-72.6895809173584)
The two-week forecast period will begin on Monday, June 10. You will submit your first forecast tonight to beat the midnight EDT deadline. See the rules here if you need any help before beginning this round:
https://twctodayforums.com/forums/forecasting/twcttwcc-forecasting-contest-rules-4808/ (https://twctodayforums.com/forums/forecasting/twcttwcc-forecasting-contest-rules-4808/)
I will not be around to help during the second week of this period as I will be away with family, but Andy will take care of everything during that time. Good luck, everyone! B)
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Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Monday, June 10, 2013
My Forecast High: 78°F
My Forecast Low: 56°F
Chance of Precip: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 1.45"
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Hartford, CT
Monday, June 10, 2013
High Temperature: 73 °F
Low Temperature: 58 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 1.22"
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KBDL Forecast
Monday, June 10, 2013
High Temperature: 77°F
Low Temperature: 58°F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Amount of Precip: 0.94"
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All three forecasts have been entered, and you all are correct that rain has fallen here today. It will just be a matter of how much falls before midnight. Day 2 forecasts may be entered now.
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Hartford, CT - June 11, 2013
High: 77
Low: 61
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Amount: 0.35"
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Hartford, CT
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
High Temperature: 71 °F
Low Temperature: 60 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.78"
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Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
My Forecast High: 74°F
My Forecast Low: 60°F
Chance of Precip: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.61"
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KBDL Forecast
Tuesday, June 11th, 2013
High Temperature: 79°F
Low Temperature: 61°F
Chance of Precip: 100%
Amount of Precip: 0.67"
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All Day 2 forecasts have been entered. The results from Day 1 are rather interesting. First, I'm sure you're all happy to finally nail the POP for saying it would rain. Craig was closest for the precipitation amount, Metarvo was closest for the high, and Tavores was closest for the low. So, who will win this round?
Matthew, since you missed the first forecast day, you'll have to take the penalty. Everyone can enter their Day 3 forecasts now, and I have posted the results from Day 1 here:
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 1 Verification
High: 71°F
Low: 55°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 0.99"
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Hartford, CT
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
High Temperature: 73 °F
Low Temperature: 59 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Precipitation Amount: 0.22"
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KBDL Forecast
Wednesday, June 12th, 2013
High Temperature: 77°F
Low Temperature: 55°F
Chance of Preicp: 0%
Amount of Precip: 0.00"
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Hartford, CT (KBDL) REVISION
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
My Forecast High: 76°F
My Forecast Low: 55°F
Chance of Precip: 20%
Precipitation Amount: 0.10"
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All the Day 3 forecasts have been entered, and Matthew has been assigned as "missing" again. Day 4 forecasts may be entered now. Here are the Day 2 results, and Metarvo holds an early ten point lead on the leaderboard.
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 2 Verification
High: 70°F
Low: 58°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 0.93"
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Hartford, CT
Thursday, June 13, 2013
High Temperature: 65 °F
Low Temperature: 57 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.74"
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KBDL Forecast
Thursday, June 13, 2013
High Temperature: 61°F
Low Temperature: 54°F
Chance of Precip: 100%
Amount of Precip: 1.54"
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Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Thursday, June 13, 2013
My Forecast High: 62°F
My Forecast Low: 54°F
Chance of Precip: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 1.50"
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The Day 4 forecasts have been entered, and Matthew has been removed off the leaderboard due to inactivity. You may enter your Day 5 forecasts now. Here are the Day 3 results, which featured a trace of precipitation and a midnight low for the day:
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 3 Verification
High: 73°F
Low: 54°F
POP: 0%
Precipitation: 0.00" (Trace)
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I'm going to have to opt out of this one. I won't be able to stay on here much the next couple days.
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Hartford, CT
Friday, June 14, 2013
High Temperature: 65 °F
Low Temperature: 53 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 2.67"
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KBDL Forecast Revised
Friday, June 14, 2013
High Temperature: 70°F
Low Temperature: 51°F
Chance of precip: 100%
Amount of precip: 0.32"
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Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Friday, June 14, 2013
My Forecast High: 71°F
My Forecast Low: 52°F
Chance of Precip: 100%
Precipitation Amount: 0.56"
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All forecasts for the first week are done, so you may wait until Sunday evening to enter your Day 6 forecasts. Precipitation is always the biggest deciding factor in a forecasting contest as it can affect your temperature predictions and change the entire scoring situation between contestants. It has clearly appeared here as the leaderboard completely flipped after Day 4 with Tavores now holding the lead and Metarvo falling to third:
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 4 Verification
High: 59°F
Low: 51°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 1.48"
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Now, I can give the Day 5 results and the standings halfway through this round. Andy will take over from here as I will be away with family during next week.
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 5 Verification
High: 75°F
Low: 51°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 0.57"
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This first week went better than I expected. :happy:
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Hi everyone,
As Patrick said, I will be in charge of the second week of forecasting for Hartford, CT while he is on vacation this week. You may now submit your forecasts for Day 6 (Monday, June 17, 2013). Remember that they are due by midnight EDT tonight!
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Hartford, CT
Monday, June 17, 2013
High Temperature: 85 °F
Low Temperature: 64 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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KBDL Forecast
Monday, June 17, 2013
High Temperature: 85°F
Low Temperature: 63°F
Chance of Precip: 30%
Amount of Precip: 0.08"
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Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Monday, June 17, 2013
My Forecast High: 84°F
My Forecast Low: 62°F
Chance of Precip: 30%
Precipitation Amount: 0.12"
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Hartford, CT
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
High Temperature: 75 °F
Low Temperature: 64 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Just a reminder: your forecasts for Day 7 (Tuesday, June 18, 2013) are due by midnight!
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Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
My Forecast High: 76°F
My Forecast Low: 58°F
Chance of Precip: 60%
Precipitation Amount: 0.52"
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Ahh! I forgot! It's ok though. :pinch:
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Here is the verification for Day 6 (Monday, June 17, 2013). Craig, I am sorry, but I am going to have to assign you a penalty for missing your forecast for Day 7. You all may now enter your forecasts for Day 8 (Wednesday, June 19, 2013), which are due by midnight EDT tonight!
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 6 Verification
High: 87°F
Low: 60°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 0.07"
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Hartford, CT
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
High Temperature: 74 °F
Low Temperature: 56 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
My Forecast High: 78°F
My Forecast Low: 56°F
Chance of Precip: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Alright, the verification for Day 7 (Tuesday, June 18, 2013) is below. Craig, again I am sorry, but I will have to assign you another penalty for missing your forecast for Day 8. You all may enter your Day 9 forecasts for Thursday, June 20 before midnight EDT tonight.
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 7 Verification
High: 81°F
Low: 57°F
POP: 100%
Precipitation: 0.39"
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I'm going to opt out of this one. I already missed two days and it's just about over. I have a lot going on in life, with exams and being cyber-bullied. I'll play good next round now that I'm done with all exams. Good luck to both Tavores and Metarvo. :thumbsup:
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Hartford, CT
Thursday, June 20, 2013
High Temperature: 80 °F
Low Temperature: 57 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Thursday, June 20, 2013
My Forecast High: 82°F
My Forecast Low: 51°F
Chance of Precip: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Craig, good luck on your exams, and I am sorry to hear that you've been having trouble with cyber-bullying. :(
Here is the verification for Day 8 (Wednesday, June 19, 2013). Though a trace of precipitation was recorded, it counts as 0.00" and a 0% POP, which means, Tavores and Metarvo, you both nailed it. You both had the same amount of error points for Day 8, but Tavores is still in the lead overall.
Don't forget to enter your forecasts for the final day (Day 10) before midnight tonight! These forecasts will be for Friday, June 21, 2013, the first day of summer!
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 8 Verification
High: 76°F
Low: 55°F
POP: 0%
Precipitation: 0.00" (Trace)
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Hartford, CT
Friday, June 21, 2013
High Temperature: 83 °F
Low Temperature: 60 °F
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Hartford, CT (KBDL)
Friday, June 21, 2013
My Forecast High: 86°F
My Forecast Low: 56°F
Chance of Precip: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"
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Here is the Day 9 verification with results. The verification for Day 10 and the winner of this round will be announced tomorrow morning.
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 9 Verification
High: 81°F
Low: 48°F
POP: 0%
Precipitation: 0.00"
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Congratulations Tavores! :clap:
You are the winner of Round 2 of the TWCT/TWCC Forecasting Contest! You may choose the city for Round 3, provided it is located in either the Central or Pacific time zone, and has a functioning ASOS station with an official NWS daily climate summary for the station, per the rules (https://twctodayforums.com/forums/forecasting/twcttwcc-forecasting-contest-rules-4808/). Patrick should be returning from his vacation sometime this weekend, so you can PM either him or me with your city choice, and we will get started with round 3 as soon as we can.
A very big thanks and good job to everyone who participated in this round. I know we had a couple who couldn't finish, but Matthew and Craig, I hope you both have done well with your school work and other commitments and are able to join us again for future rounds.
Hartford, CT (KBDL) Day 10 Verification
High: 85°F
Low: 58°F
POP: 0%
Precipitation: 0.00"
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Congratulations, Tavores! You can pick anywhere outside the Eastern Time Zone for the next city, which may be done via PM to me.
Andy, thanks for your help with finishing up this round. :thumbsup: