January 21, 2020, 08:23:36 PM

Author Topic: Round 1: Casper, WY  (Read 12879 times)

Offline Mr. Rainman

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1394
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2013, 09:34:28 PM »
Casper, WY
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
HIGH TEMPERATURE: 70
LOW TEMPERATURE: 37
POP: 30%
PRECIPITATION: 0.03"


REGION BEGINNING TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA. NAM AND UKMET ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL...KEEPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW WEAK. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE SYSTEM WELL SO WILL RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THESE. THUS...USED ECMWF AND SOME GFS H7/H8 TEMP GUIDANCE AND PRECIP.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2013, 12:20:35 AM by plane852 »
Tiddlywinks.

phw115wvwx

  • Guest
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2013, 01:24:37 AM »
The deadline for Day 2 has passed.  Mac, please don't add your forecasting discussion after the deadline as it'll raise suspicions.  I already saw your numbers before midnight, so I know they're okay.  Day 3 forecasts for Wednesday, May 8 may now commence.

Casper, WY (KCPR) Day 1 Verification

High:  70F
Low:  29F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"


I've attached the results from Day 1 and the overall leaderboard as of now.  The tiebreaker column is just your total error points from the second week of this round, which currently stands at zero for everyone.

Offline Metarvo

  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 574
  • Gender: Male
  • Doesn't record TWC
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Dish Network
  • HD Channel #: 214
  • WxStar Version: Satellite
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2013, 08:26:19 AM »
Casper, WY
Wednesday, May 8, 2013

High Temperature: 70 F
Low Temperature: 42 F
Chance or Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"

Offline Trevor

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1481
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Xfinity
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2013, 09:12:09 PM »
Wednesday, May 8, 2013

High: 64
Low: 43
POP: 40%
Amount: 0.09"

Offline TWCmatthew

  • Avid TWC Fan 2000-2011
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1554
  • Gender: Male
  • Trained Weather Spotter for NWS Detroit/Pontiac
    • View Profile
    • My YouTube Page
  • Cable Provider: Charter
  • SD Channel #: 35
  • SD WxStar ID #: 23527
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2013, 09:38:06 PM »
Casper, WY - May 8, 2013

High: 66
Low: 38
Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Amount: 0.05"
« Last Edit: May 07, 2013, 09:55:39 PM by TWCmatthew »

Offline TWCCraig

  • SKYWARN Spotter
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1675
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Cablevision
  • HD Channel #: 62
  • HD WxStar ID #: 31372
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2013, 09:43:25 PM »
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
KCPR Forecast:

High Temperature: 68F
Low Temperature: 38F
Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Amount of Precip: 0.08"

MAV/MET blend for 2mT. Decreased low temp value for radiational cooling. Used MET/4km NAM/EMCWF for PoP and precip amount.
Youtube.com/Theweatherchannelman <- Uploaded the most Intellistar 2 videos!
My Weather Station

Long Island, August-September 2012 tornadoes, Hurricane Sandy, Blizzard of 2013, how many places on Earth do you know can get all 3 of those events within a 6 month period?

Offline toxictwister00

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6912
  • Gender: Male
  • Settle It In SMASH!
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Xfinity
  • HD Channel #: 832
  • SD Channel #: 32
  • SD WxStar ID #: 22204
  • WxScan Ch. #: 212
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2013, 10:38:57 PM »
Deleted my previous post to make some slight revisions.

Casper, WY (KCPR)
Wednesday, May 8, 2013

High: 68F
Low: 42F
C.O.P: 40%
Forecasted Precip Amount: 0.07


My Video Gaming YouTube Channel
NintenGamers Nation
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAi4m_Snvp3b4Vn13_Ir3rA

Offline Mr. Rainman

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1394
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2013, 10:44:41 PM »
Casper, WY
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
HIGH TEMPERATURE: 66
LOW TEMPERATURE: 37
POP: 50%
PRECIPITATION: 0.08"


I have put my forecast reasoning on as an attachment for tonight's forecast. Craig, you're killing me here.  :lol:
Tiddlywinks.

phw115wvwx

  • Guest
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2013, 02:25:57 AM »
Day 3 forecasting is done, and Day 4 forecasting for Thursday, May 9 is underway.  I hope you are starting to realize how much the models struggle with a desert valley where large temperature swings are common.  Here are the results from Day 2 and the current leaderboard:

Casper, WY (KCPR) Day 2 Verification

High:  69F
Low:  32F
POP:  0%
Precipitation:  0.00"

Offline Metarvo

  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 574
  • Gender: Male
  • Doesn't record TWC
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Dish Network
  • HD Channel #: 214
  • WxStar Version: Satellite
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2013, 08:36:49 AM »
Casper, WY
Thursday, May 9, 2013

High Temperature: 66 F
Low Temperature: 37 F
Chance or Precipitation: 0%
Precipitation Amount: 0.00"

Offline Mr. Rainman

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1394
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2013, 04:41:10 PM »
Have to bow out for the remainder of this round. I have to focus on exams. Best of luck to everyone!
Tiddlywinks.

Offline TWCmatthew

  • Avid TWC Fan 2000-2011
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1554
  • Gender: Male
  • Trained Weather Spotter for NWS Detroit/Pontiac
    • View Profile
    • My YouTube Page
  • Cable Provider: Charter
  • SD Channel #: 35
  • SD WxStar ID #: 23527
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2013, 06:12:01 PM »
Casper, WY - May 9, 2013

High: 66
Low: 40
Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Amount: 0.01"

Offline TWCCraig

  • SKYWARN Spotter
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1675
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Cablevision
  • HD Channel #: 62
  • HD WxStar ID #: 31372
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2013, 06:54:01 PM »
Have to bow out for the remainder of this round. I have to focus on exams. Best of luck to everyone!
Accepting defeat?  :bleh:  :lol:

JK!
Youtube.com/Theweatherchannelman <- Uploaded the most Intellistar 2 videos!
My Weather Station

Long Island, August-September 2012 tornadoes, Hurricane Sandy, Blizzard of 2013, how many places on Earth do you know can get all 3 of those events within a 6 month period?

Offline toxictwister00

  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6912
  • Gender: Male
  • Settle It In SMASH!
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Xfinity
  • HD Channel #: 832
  • SD Channel #: 32
  • SD WxStar ID #: 22204
  • WxScan Ch. #: 212
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #28 on: May 08, 2013, 07:34:14 PM »
Casper, WY (KCPR)
Thursday, May 9, 2013

High: 65F
Low: 40F
C.O.P: 20%
Forecasted Precip Amount: 0.04


My Video Gaming YouTube Channel
NintenGamers Nation
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAi4m_Snvp3b4Vn13_Ir3rA

Offline TWCCraig

  • SKYWARN Spotter
  • Ultimate Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1675
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Cable Provider: Cablevision
  • HD Channel #: 62
  • HD WxStar ID #: 31372
  • WxStar Version: IntelliStar
Re: Round 1: Casper, WY
« Reply #29 on: May 08, 2013, 10:25:01 PM »
Thursday, May 8, 2013
KCPR Forecast:

High Temperature: 66F
Low Temperature: 35F
Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.02"

MAV/MET blend. Decreased low temperature. PoP and amount from 4km NAM. Not much effort put in on this one. Disregarded ECMWF 2mT's, have been far from stellar at this point.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2013, 10:27:17 PM by TWCCraig »
Youtube.com/Theweatherchannelman <- Uploaded the most Intellistar 2 videos!
My Weather Station

Long Island, August-September 2012 tornadoes, Hurricane Sandy, Blizzard of 2013, how many places on Earth do you know can get all 3 of those events within a 6 month period?