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Weather Discussion => Forecasting => Topic started by: TWCCraig on November 06, 2013, 06:43:57 PM

Title: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on November 06, 2013, 06:43:57 PM
OMG, so close to an all out blizzard!  :fire:

(http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/6477/tb.gif)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on November 06, 2013, 07:21:24 PM
First upper 30s for Southern New England next Week!

OMG, so close to an all out blizzard!  :fire:

I would have to keep an eye on this throughout this week because that storm may bring a mix-bag to my area this time next week.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on November 07, 2013, 02:37:24 PM
http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013110712/ma/ecmwf_t2m_snow_ma_32.png (http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013110712/ma/ecmwf_t2m_snow_ma_32.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on November 07, 2013, 03:19:49 PM
[url]http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013110712/ma/ecmwf_t2m_snow_ma_32.png[/url] ([url]http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013110712/ma/ecmwf_t2m_snow_ma_32.png[/url])


What the heck? Snow for me too?  That can't be right! :huh: :thinking: :faint:

That would be a nice early birthday present if it did happen though. :happy:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on November 08, 2013, 08:27:49 PM
It looks like the 18z GFS just took a tiny step backwards towards the EURO on the snow for parts of GA/SC/NC. Yesterday, I humorously laughed this off because I expected whatever glitch, hiccup, or mishap to be gone on the ECMWF by now, but it's still there showing at least a few flakes down my way.

This ain't fantasy or voodoo land were talking about, this is only 4 days from tonight. I feel like I probably shouldn't keep brushing it off even if I still don't believe it, but I desperately want to. :lol:

Interesting fact from another member at another forum, he says it's been about 135 years since Atlanta has had measurable snow in the month of November, so if the Euro is right (as it stands now) this will go from being very unusual to very historical.

All hail King Euro if it ends up being right about next week. :worship:


Sidenote: I'm so glad TWC does analysis of the GFS/ECMWF when there are future storms showing up on the horizon. I wish they had of done that more often like a decade ago. Would have made this weathergeek happy to see them discuss them. :yes: :happy:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on November 09, 2013, 11:43:42 AM
Our NWS office has added a mix of rain/snow for parts of N. GA (north of ATL) from about Rome northward. They said it's not out of the question they'll extend that southward towards us as well.

Given what the 12z GFS is showing this morning, they might feel more confident in doing so.

Snippet of their morning forecast discussion...

WHILE THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE A GIVEN AT THIS
POINT...THE TRICKY PART WILL BE HOW MUCH ATTENDANT MOISTURE EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIST WHEN THE STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH MORE EXPANSIVE MOISTURE
THAN THE GFS...WHILE THE GFS HAS BETTER MOISTURE IN FAR NORTHEAST
GA WHERE TEMPS ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH ANY
WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL. STRONG CAA QUICKLY BRINGS -2 TO -4 850MB
TEMPS TO NORTH GA BY 06Z WED WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK RAIN SHOWER TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION AS THE PROGGED
SATURATED COLUMNS BELOW 600-700MB SHIFT TO MAINLY ALL BELOW 0-C.

THE GFS IS QUICKER TO DRY OUT THE COLUMN THAN THE ECMWF SO THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND TO
PRECIPITATE AS THE DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION BATTLES AGAINST IT.
SURFACE TEMPS AT THE MOMENT LOOK TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR MOST
AREAS IN NORTH GA FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO RESULT IN
ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AND LOW TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD WED MORNING. ALL CONSIDERED...HAVE INTRODUCED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER MIX TO MUCH OF THE NORTH NEAR A ROME...TO
CANTON...TO WARRENTON LINE...
STAYING MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FURTHER
SOUTH AT THIS MOMENT.
KEEPING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on November 09, 2013, 02:05:24 PM
I guess the EURO model a few days ago had 10+ inches of snow for Oklahoma next week. :P  In fact, the following meme was made:

(http://s22.postimg.org/66fvtpmht/1441347_449065315204591_1205085237_n.jpg)

It looks like we're not going to get much precipitation out of this system at all, but temperatures will take a significant nose dive, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. :brr:  Not ready for winter yet.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on November 09, 2013, 06:02:37 PM
Euro was a flop with this entire storm. We might see some snow along an arctic front moving in Monday night which is abnormal, it's rare to get snow along a cold front here. The warm air out ahead of the front ruins our chances all the time.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on November 09, 2013, 08:10:49 PM
NWS updated my forecast to 30% chance of rain/snow Tues. night into Wednesday! :thrilled: :twothumbs:

One of our local news stations mentioned a 30% chance of rain changing to snow during the same timeframe. TWC is not biting which is very ironic because last night (and this morning) they wouldn't shut up about how we could see some snow showers. :rolleyes:

Hopefully I'll get to see a few flakes to start off the Winter season which technically hasn't even started yet.  :P
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on November 10, 2013, 11:12:11 PM
If you all looked closely at Craig's first post of the European model snowfall several days ago, it showed over three feet of snow for my area on Tuesday, while the GFS only had an inch or two.  Now, the European model barely shows anything in my area for Tuesday, and I feel that I'll be lucky to see a trace.  The GFS definitely won this battle.  The European model struggled a lot last winter after Sandy, so I'm wondering if the GFS could outperform it again this winter.

I will share these thoughts from my experiences with the models:  They all struggle with cold air surges and arctic outbreaks, and the snowfall amounts they produce are not reliable at all.  Cold air damming is never handled well in the East.  Precipitation amount is the worst variable possible for the models to predict, so you really need to consider mesoscale conditions when determining snowfall amounts.  For some reason, the models are better with warm surges and heat waves, so keep that point in mind for the future.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on November 11, 2013, 05:04:05 PM
My local NWS office has about a half inch of snow tonight

(http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on November 11, 2013, 05:12:40 PM
No Snow Showers Forecast Here From the Computer Models Anymore = FAIL! :thumbdown:

Ah well, it was fun to see while it lasted. :itsok: At least we might still have a chance at jeopardizing a couple of record lows.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on November 12, 2013, 12:11:34 AM
Can someone say fffffffffrrrrrrreeeeeezzzzzzzzzzeeee? :P :brr:

(http://s8.postimg.org/ef18nh6bp/freeze_Nov2013.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on November 12, 2013, 02:29:10 PM
Long Island is under a freeze warning tonight. Other than NYC, we are the only place in the area that has yet to have a good freeze, with the exception of the pine barrens of LI which see epic radiational cooling temps. Tonight we'll have our first freeze but even with a wind off the water, temps will only drop to the upper 20's to around 30.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on November 17, 2013, 06:16:07 PM
GFS is down right cold for our area late next weekend beginning of next week. Thickness values drop to near 500 and 850mb temps drop to near -20°C. Extremely rare and unprecedented for only November.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on November 18, 2013, 07:37:52 PM
Although it could change, that COLD (and somewhat wetter) trend continues on the GFS for Thanksgiving and beyond. On the 18z GFS, there's a 1052mb High pressure sliding into the Central Plains sending the eastern 2/3rds of the nation right into the deep freezer to start off December. :brr:

Haven't seen the ECMWF or Canadian, but from what I've heard it's in agreement on a colder weather pattern so far.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on November 21, 2013, 01:21:52 PM
Winter is here. :hmm:

(http://s9.postimg.org/a71a0ak7z/Norman_OKFcst.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on November 21, 2013, 04:30:41 PM
I'll trade for your Sunday forecast. I've never had snow on my birthday before, it would be a nice treat! :D
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Metarvo on November 22, 2013, 08:21:36 AM
:thrilled:

I'm loving every minute of it.  The only thing I don't like are the potentially icy roads.  The cold and even the chances for snow don't bother me at all.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on December 08, 2013, 02:47:45 PM
Places to the S&W of me are picking up a good amount of snow. Places around Philly are nearing 10" of snow! Good for them. They usually get rain when we get big snow storms. Only looking at around 1" tonight before we go to all rain. That ocean...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 08, 2013, 06:14:42 PM
Places to the S&W of me are picking up a good amount of snow. Places around Philly are nearing 10" of snow! Good for them. They usually get rain when we get big snow storms. Only looking at around 1" tonight before we go to all rain. That ocean...

Isn't it supposed to change over to rain there also?
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on December 08, 2013, 07:22:11 PM
Places to the S&W of me are picking up a good amount of snow. Places around Philly are nearing 10" of snow! Good for them. They usually get rain when we get big snow storms. Only looking at around 1" tonight before we go to all rain. That ocean...

Isn't it supposed to change over to rain there also?

In some parts yes. Places more west further away from the coastal low and WAA may stay as sleet and freezing rain. I just measured 0.9" and it looks to be done for now. Some freezing rain then rain later.

But now that many places in SE PA and S NJ picked up a decent amount, that may help keep the cold low level air in place more than the models depicted.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on December 30, 2013, 12:00:36 PM
MAJOR EAST COAST STORM POSSIBLE THIS THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Models are beginning to come together on a solution which would could dump 6-12" along the northeastern I-95 corridor. The ECMWF has a solid snow threat from PHL to BOS, BOS potentially seeing 12-18". 8-12" around NYC, less south. The NAVGEM was the first model to seek out a PNA spike, helping to lead in rise in heights over the SE, causing the trough go negatively titled and amplify. The Euro picked up on it last night, bombing out a 979mb low just south of Montauk, NY. Down to 961mb in the Gulf of Maine. The latest 12z run of the GFS has picked up on this now, with a decent enough Davis Strait block. The GFS appears to be suffering from some convective feedback issues. Causes the low to be further east than depicted, also taken into consideration the GFS' SE bias and its struggle with east coast cyclogenesis. Eliminate the bias and convective feedback issue, this could be an 12-18" event (MECS, Major East Coast Storm) for the NYC area. Behind the system, area of pronounced -15c - -20c 850mb temperatures. High pressure to the west will allow northerly winds to spill down from the Hudson Valley (which is the best way for NYC to see cold temps). GFS raw numbers have NYC reaching a low -2.2°F Saturday morning. Could be slightly overdone, maybe a low between 5 and 0 degrees more likely. These temps will be more attainable with a decent snowpack. More updates to follow.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on December 30, 2013, 01:51:41 PM
I'm a lot more interested in what happens after this storm as far as seeing whether or not the hammer of COLD the Euro slams down on our heads a week from now is just smoke and mirrors like in the past or if it's the real deal. Even has Atlanta seeing sub-zero degree temps. Atlanta's all time record low is -9 set back in 1899. Georgia's all time record low is -17 set back in 1940.

My confidence level is a 2/10 right now this arctic outbreak will happen.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on December 30, 2013, 02:47:42 PM
Euro got even better. Drops 1.26" of precip (all frozen) from this upcoming storm with temps very cold, heavy snow with temps in low teens. Ratios between 12:1 to 15:1 would argue 12-18" of snow. Likely over done again. What's even more unbelievable, the Euro has 2m temps, get this, on western LI, down to -18°F. I'm shocked that a model, especially the Euro is showing temps that cold. Even if that's well over done (has to be), that's still temps near 0, which is record breaking.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on December 30, 2013, 03:13:09 PM
Take a look at this. Nearly -40C 850's coming down from Canada next week. This is Jan 1994 type cold.

(http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013123012/east/ecmwf_t850_east_28.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on December 30, 2013, 09:02:47 PM
Euro is being very aggressive
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on December 31, 2013, 12:38:27 AM
Euro has been aggressive on the winter storms so far this season (at one point the model was forecasting a few feet of snow for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas).  I wouldn't rely on it heavily in predicting snowfall totals for this upcoming storm.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCToday on December 31, 2013, 03:00:30 AM
Euro is being very aggressive
Backed off for the 0z

Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on December 31, 2013, 04:09:29 PM
Still looking at a 4-8" storm here with near record cold behind it. WSW up for local area.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: TWCCraig on December 31, 2013, 10:21:47 PM
Lol, NAM is amped and dumps about a foot. Also, its 2m temps are insane for Sat AM. These will be the coldest temps since January 1994. Last below 0 day in NYC was Jan '94. Out here it's Jan '87.

http://imageshack.us/a/img827/7997/uh.gif (http://imageshack.us/a/img827/7997/uh.gif)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 01, 2014, 03:20:59 PM
I might be lucky enough to see some wraparound snow from this storm late tomorrow afternoon/evening. It seems like it will be similar to the Thanksgiving Eve snow I saw a couple of months ago last year. :happy:

Is everyone ready for the hammer to drop on our heads come next week? :brr: :brr: :brr:
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on January 01, 2014, 04:51:57 PM
Is everyone ready for the hammer to drop on our heads come next week? :brr: :brr: :brr:

Ugh - no!  I thought Dallas was going to be missing out on the colder weather, but it looks like that's a no.  It's a whapping 68 degrees here right now but will be some 30-degrees colder on Monday, according to current NWS forecasts. :(
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on January 01, 2014, 06:24:25 PM
Winter Storm Warnings for MA and Blizzard Warning for Long Island
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 01, 2014, 11:05:42 PM
Is everyone ready for the hammer to drop on our heads come next week? :brr: :brr: :brr:

Ugh - no!  I thought Dallas was going to be missing out on the colder weather, but it looks like that's a no.  It's a whapping 68 degrees here right now but will be some 30-degrees colder on Monday, according to current NWS forecasts. :(

Whapping I like that, you just gave me a new favorite word. :lol:

I'm ready for the cold, I got my beanie hat, leather jacket, long johns, scarf, gloves, gloves, and my new boots I got for Christmas all prepped for this. It's been years since it's been as cold as it looks like it will be next week.

This looks to rival the January 2003 Arctic Outbreak as it stands now, I'm not sure if it will rival the February 1996 or January 1994 Arctic Outbreaks yet...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 01, 2014, 11:50:41 PM
0z GFS tonight: "Yea, um remember how my buddy the ECMWF kept saying extreme cold was coming? Turns out he was totally right and I 1000% agree with him."

I'm pretty sure this is the coldest GFS run so far this week, parts of Florida will likely see a freeze, possibly a hard freeze. (Tallahassee, Pensacola, Jacksonville, Tampa, Sarasota, etc.)

I wonder how many NWS offices across the ECONUS will issue Wind Chill Advisories? I haven't seen one here in 11 years. :thinking:

The ICEBOX is near, ice cubes and all!  :sos: :fire: :P

Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on January 02, 2014, 06:42:37 PM
Since some of you are looking at 850 mb temperatures and wondering how cold it will get compared to previous years, I have used a website that I learned within the NWS, which the Rapid City, SD office kindly shares to the public.  There is actually a climatological database of precipitable water (how much moisture can be condensed from the atmosphere directly above you) and the 850 mb temperature for every NWS site that launches a weather balloon every 12 hours.  Just click a site on the map, and you will see the graphs for those two variables with percentiles and extremes depicted.  You can even find out where the latest sounding at that site lands on the graph in real time by using the "Click for Real-Time Data" link.  Enjoy!  B)

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on January 02, 2014, 07:07:43 PM
This is kinda a rant, but only because I just don't get the logic of weather media in general sometimes.

I'm hoping I didn't hear this right, but maybe if someone else happened to be watching at the time can confirm. I could have sworn I just heard Dr. Postel saying that during the arctic blast, Atlanta would struggle to reach 40. Is he serious? He honestly thinks it's not gonna be colder than that? :huh: :unsure:

It's really no wonder we, as Southerners are so ill-prepared for snow, ice, and cold snaps on the occasion when they happen. The forecasts are always either contradicting or extremely conservative, sometimes even 24 hrs before the main event occurs! I can understand being skeptical about the arctic blast earlier in the week when it was just mainly the EURO honking the horn on it, but now that we have solid model agreement this arctic outbreak is gonna happen, I mean the GFS/ECMWF has been showing 20s for highs and single digits for lows most of the week now for where I live. It's really time to stop sugar coding and actually hype this already.

Now I know I could just ignore TWC and just listen to what the local mets say and to be fair, they were playing coy about this too up until today. You can tell there's more of an urgency to inform the public about not just the possibly record low temps, but the possibly dangerous wind chills which is going to be the main show anyway. In response to that, the public is actually preparing by insulating exposed pipes, plants, bringing pets inside, and even having their homes re-insulated and buying generators/heaters. I guess my point is I don't get why TWC is hyping the cold on the LF, but on air they're doing a complete 180 by backpedaling on just how severe the cold will be in the South. It's only causing confusion when they choose to have it both ways imo.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on January 04, 2014, 10:25:42 AM
In case someone notices later, I just split Craig's topic into two topics here as I feel fall/winter weather and spring/summer weather ought to be kept separate. ;)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: gt1racerlHDl on January 04, 2014, 05:37:40 PM
Massachusetts Arctic Freeze 2014: 1/4/14 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohUJPvGp67A#)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 09, 2014, 08:25:14 AM
If you live anywhere from AR over to NC, you need to start prepping for what will be another major winter storm to strike the Southern CONUS with snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Winter Storm Watches are already flying up for parts of the South for the first round, yes there are two separate rounds.

For my area, the first round is from Monday night into Tuesday night. 1-2 inches of snow is expected.
The second round could possibly be more ominous as model guidance suggests an icy mix setup. This will be from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Models such as the Canadian and the European models suggest significant ice will accumulate here. Even the 6z GFS model suggests a long duration icing event. YIKES!

We haven't had a significant icestorm in the Atlanta metro area since January 28-29, 2005! So, unfortunately, we are WELL overdue for another.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 19, 2014, 10:43:55 PM
This makes me sad. :(  I was enjoying the warmer temperatures.

(http://s10.postimg.org/thdmef2qh/610temp_new.gif)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 20, 2014, 12:03:45 AM
This makes me sad. :(  I was enjoying the warmer temperatures.

([url]http://s10.postimg.org/thdmef2qh/610temp_new.gif[/url])


You drank too much of that Spring Fever flavored Kool Aid didn't you? It's still February, you didn't honestly think Spring was here for good already did you? :lol:

Speaking of Spring Fever, were gonna be awfully close to a record high tomorrow, but I think we'll fall short of tying or breaking it. The record is 78 set back in 1986.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 20, 2014, 01:54:38 AM
This makes me sad. :(  I was enjoying the warmer temperatures.

([url]http://s10.postimg.org/thdmef2qh/610temp_new.gif[/url])


You drank too much of that Spring Fever flavored Kool Aid didn't you? It's still February, you didn't honestly think Spring was here for good already did you? :lol:

Speaking of Spring Fever, were gonna be awfully close to a record high tomorrow, but I think we'll fall short of tying or breaking it. The record is 78 set back in 1986.


No, but I certainly wouldn't mind returning back to near normal as opposed to falling 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Plus, March isn't that far away anymore...
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on February 20, 2014, 08:09:40 AM
If it makes you feel any better I wouldn't trust those CPC maps anymore than I can throw them. They change just as frequently as any typical computer model run will.

Here's an interesting article from Accuweather talking about the return of arctic blasts by next week. What jumped out at me was the mentioning of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, I wasn't aware there was one earlier this month. They think the brunt of the arctic air will be aimed towards the Midwest/Southeast/Northeast regions.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/frigid-air-to-clutch-midwest-east/23498242 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/frigid-air-to-clutch-midwest-east/23498242)

EDIT: Also I like to wait until April before I feel ok to enjoy warm weather like this today because March is known for being a transitional and violate month. There have been March's in the past that were notorious for snow/ice here just as well as DJF are. (ex: 1960, 1980, 1983, 1993, 2009, 2010) those are just the years I know off the top of my head, there's probably more.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 27, 2014, 12:46:08 PM
Well, Old Man Winter returns this weekend.  I, for one, am not looking forward to this, especially if it's going to be icy.

(http://s1.postimg.org/5afjn96f3/OUNFcst_227.png)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on February 28, 2014, 05:49:34 PM
Lost in all of the wintry weather we have been experiencing the past few months is the ongoing drought situation.  The latest Drought Monitor released on February 27, 2014 is quite startling.  Virtually everyone in the East is free from dry weather.  However, the West is still suffering with drought, and the situation in California is becoming really dire.

Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on February 28, 2014, 09:59:20 PM
The East needs to stop hogging all of our rainfall! :P  This year for Oklahoma (and really all of the southern Plains) is starting off exceptionally dry, which is not a good thing at all.  We are going to need a more stable pattern change soon, otherwise I fear much of the region will be placed back in an exceptional drought by the summertime.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on March 02, 2014, 10:27:36 PM
Hmm, I've never seen a weather bulletin like this before...

Issued by The National Weather Service
Memphis, TN
Sun, Mar 2, 2014, 4:41 PM CST

CORRECTED... WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT
... AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT UNTIL 600 AM CST MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY FOR THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT CONTINUING UNTIL 600 AM CST MONDAY. A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TONIGHT RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT ICING. THE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO FREEZING BY 5 PM... FALLING THROUGH THE 20S TONIGHT... WITH A LOW NEAR 17 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MIXING WITH SLEET THIS EVENING... CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION OCCASIONALLY HEAVY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS. BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM FREEZING RAIN WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: Trevor on March 03, 2014, 12:46:32 AM
They're issued all the time. NWS Memphis tends to make theirs a little more predominant and out there for the sake of FedEx who is headquartered at Memphis International. Most NWS offices just send them directly to the airports.
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: phw115wvwx on March 05, 2014, 11:17:42 PM
They're issued all the time. NWS Memphis tends to make theirs a little more predominant and out there for the sake of FedEx who is headquartered at Memphis International. Most NWS offices just send them directly to the airports.
Actually, airports have to contact the NWS office serving them to request these Airport Weather Warnings.  The management at those airports must create their own list of warning criteria in a written agreement with the NWS office before it goes into effect.  I don't think the list of those doing it is that long though.  I have a feeling only the major airports take advantage of this service as you still have the regular forecast and headline products along with TAFs (text aviation forecasts).
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: toxictwister00 on May 11, 2014, 09:55:42 PM
We got another named Winter storm? This one is named Zephyr. :blink:

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-zephyr-forecast-rockies-denver-colorado-snow-20140509 (http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-zephyr-forecast-rockies-denver-colorado-snow-20140509)
Title: Re: Fall/Winter Weather Discussion Thread
Post by: WeatherWitness on May 12, 2014, 12:27:51 AM
This is clearly one strong cold front. :P